Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Investment Risk

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Gold Coast City has been unchallenged for some time as the No.1 municipality in Australia for growth real estate markets, but that’s no longer the case.
The Sunshine Coast has overtaken Gold Coast City as the area with the most upwardly mobile markets.
The Gold Coast housing market remains strong, but the latest Hotspotting research for The Price Predictor Index finds that the number of suburbs with growing sales activity has decreased, while the Sunshine Coast precinct is rising.
The Sunshine Coast now ranks as the leading municipality in the nation in terms of the number of suburbs with growing sales activity (previous market leaders in the major cities, such as the Whitehorse LGA in Melbourne, have faded markedly in 2016).
The region has achieved national prominence on the back of major spending on infrastructure and urban renewal ventures – projects under way or in planning total well above $20 billion.
They’re headed by the $2.3 billion Sunshine Coast University Hospital, which is the centrepiece of a $5 billion health precinct that’s evolving rapidly in the Kawana area.
And there’s a lot more happening. Over $1 billion is being spent on the Bruce Highway, around $400 million on the airport and several billion over time on the new Maroochydore CBD, where preliminary works are now under way. The Sunshine Coast University continues to expand.
A $2 billion light rail project is proposed but is unlikely to be delivered any time soon.
Real estate development includes several master-planned communities and apartment developments, as well as a $400 million expansion of the region’s biggest shopping centre, Sunshine Plaza. Youi Insurance is building its national headquarters on the Sunshine Coast. 
Nambour, one of the inland towns of the Sunshine Coast Region, is typical of the growth markets - with sales up from around 65 per quarter 18 months ago to above 100 per quarter in 2016.
The Sunshine Coast hasn’t always been a hotspot contender – in the past it has been included in my No Go Zones report because of a weak economy (over-reliant on tourism) and bouts of over-supply, leading to price decline. But the broadening the local economy through infrastructure spending and evolution of the medical precinct has been the critical game-changer.
The Gold Coast has been the hottest market among the municipalities of Australia for the past 18 months, but the trend suggests it’s winding down – it surged throughout 2015 and the early part of 2016, but the number of growth suburbs has dropped from 25 six months ago to 20 three months ago to 14 now.
Nevertheless, six of our National Top 30 Growth Star suburbs are in Gold Coast City and the bulk of them are inland housing markets – including Ashmore, Carrara, Nerang and Upper Coomera.
The Gold Coast may surge again, given the high level of spending on infrastructure, some of it associated with the 2018 Commonwealth Games.
I continue to urge caution about the Gold Coast high-rise apartment markets because of the alarming history of boom-bust scenarios, poor capital growth record and looming prospect of oversupply.
Anyone thinking of getting into the Surfers Paradise high-rise market should keep in mind that the median apartment price today is lower than it was a decade ago, such is the ongoing impact of regular doses of over-building.
Other Gold Coast high-rise suburbs have similar track records.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Caution for Gold Coast high rise property investment: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Lenders are reluctant to lend and buyers don’t want to buy when it comes to high-rise developments.
That’s according to RiskWise Property Research’s latest analysis of the construction industry which has been hit hard over recent months following the high-profile cases of the Mascot and Opal towers in NSW.
With cracks in both the Sydney towers, fears more will become apparent in other buildings and the need to replace combustible cladding in thousands of buildings throughout Australia, demand for units had dropped dramatically.
Lenders are proceeding much more cautiously too, and this includes non-bank lenders whose business model is to provide alternative solutions from the ADIs, and generally have a less conservative assessment of risk.
Add to that the issue of oversupply in many Danger Zone areas and there is very real risk for developers.
We have a situation now where lenders aren’t eager to lend and buyers don’t want to buy but we still have developers who are considering developing high rise.
Units in the pipeline for the next 24 months Australia-wide equate to 7.6 per cent of current stock. In Sydney there are 58,094 units in the pipeline or (9.5%) of current stock and in Melbourne there are 59,634 units in the pipeline or (8.1%) of current stock.
However, in the last three months to June 2019, only 8 per cent of stock sold in Sydney and in Melbourne, 12 per cent.
The high-profile issues around cladding and defects had created enormous ‘reputational damage’ across the entire industry and because of this, investors had lost interest in high-rise unit developments and were turning to “safer” house-and-land packages suitable for families.
And Sydney’s Mascot and Opal towers are not the only ones that have been hit with negative media coverage with a cladding fire taking hold in the 43-storey Melbourne building, Neo200, in February. In July, a development in Sydney’s Zetland was also forced to shut its doors on residents for eight months after reports of water damage and faulty fire prevention.
According to Knight Frank's Australian Residential Development Review, in Greater Sydney the value of sales of development sites suitable for high-density projects halved in the 2019 financial year, while average site values in both Sydney and Melbourne fell dramatically.
If you combine the recent quality issues with financial losses from investment in high-rise units, this could amount to a permanent structural change in demand.
In some cases developers, instead of assessing the true needs of the market, have developed large numbers of units and have needed to find ways to shift stock by using instrastate or overseas markets with high commissions that are often factored into the property price. A prime example of this type of poor risk management is the oversupply in the Brisbane unit market, as detailed in our case study of 2018, which resulted in lower valuations, rising defaults on settlements, heavy discounting and incredible incentives such as new cars.
We already have significantly reduced levels of demand due to restrictions on foreign investors, credit restrictions, banks refusing to loan to self-managed super funds and local investors looking elsewhere.
Add to that the high level of unit oversupply and it’s possible to see how structural changes could occur in a sense that the overall demand for off-the-plan dwellings shifts from units to house-and-land packages. Medium-density dwellings, such as townhouses, particularly in popular areas also enjoy higher demand.
Some developers were already struggling to meet pre-sales and / or sales targets in areas where there were high levels of stock and many had not proceeded to commencement. In other instances, according to recent media reports, development defaults were on the increase and many developers, such as the high-profile Ralan Group, had collapsed or were on the brink of failure.
 Without demand from investors, and other buyers, you don't have pre-sales or sales and the entire development is at risk. Obviously, an event of default is never planned by the developer. However, developers need to carefully assess the risk that they are taking the risk, and they need to be in a strong financial position to deal with the potential consequences and not be forced to do a fire sale.
Developers needed to do greater risk management and assess whether there was genuine demand for their product.
Demand for existing and off-the-plan properties, mainly units, began to lower with the introduction of APRA’s lending restrictions in 2017 followed by greater scrutiny of home loan applications.
However, with the addition of construction defects and cladding issues, greater government legislation within the industry and oversupply, demand had dropped even further and was now “extremely low” putting developers at higher risk of default if they did not do their due diligence.
DORON PELEG is the CEO of RiskWise
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

High-rise units are a massive risk for developers: RiskWise's Doron Peleg

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The non-bank finance group Chifley Securities has created a list of suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne that it rates as “high risk” and no-go zones for lending for residential developments.
In Sydney they won't lend for greenfield development sites in Schofields, in the Blacktown area, as well as regions in Box Hill.
The likes of Leppington, Badgerys Creek and Kemps Creek, Kurrajong Heights, Katoomba and Orchard Hills also make the list.
In Melbourne Chifley Securities highlight Plumpton and suburbs in the Bacchus March corridor as no-go areas.
Truganina to the west, Officer to the east and Cranbourne to the south are also now off-limits for Chifley.
Chifley has lent $2 billion to developers over the 2018/19 financial year.
Chifley Securities principal Dominic Lambrinos says no-go zones have been created on the basis that many outer-lying suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne pose serious risks for both developers and buyers due to an explosion of development activity.
“These areas are seeing explosive growth in the number of residential dwellings, yet are not yet supported by the necessary infrastructure required to support vibrant communities.
“While there might be a new railway station, road and supermarket in a suburb, this infrastructure does not fill the requirement for a sustainable and healthy and profitable development for both developers and residents”, he added.
Lambrinos said the list would be amended once the market and amenities in the suburbs “caught up” with the greenfields developments now saturating the suburbs.  
While the residential market has been flattened by over-supply and a range of quality issues related to a range of buildings, the commercial and industrial property sectors continued to perform well, he said.
“Meanwhile we continue to see more residential developers coming to Chifley and our competitors as their pre-sales dry up, amid the realisation that many have paid comparatively high prices for their land”, he added.
Lambrinos said further cuts to interest rates were expected to be made over the next few months in an attempt to remedy the growth slump in the economy and property markets.
“While credit guidelines have been loosened by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), financing by the major lenders continues to be tight and non-bank lenders are taking up the slack”, Lambrinos said.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Chifley Securities no-go zones for investors

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The investment management firm Auscap Asset Management has said that Australia's  reliance on past growth trends may be blinding us to certain risks that may adversely affect the property market in the future.
“Risks exist for every investment whether we acknowledge the risks or not. Risks that have not appeared for a long time can be ignored by investors or even assumed not to exist,” Tim Carleton and Matthew Parker, principals at Auscap, said.
The assumption that property inherently carries a low risk could be traced back to the fact that real estate has not experienced a broad decline since 1991, they said.
Risks exist for every investment whether we acknowledge the risks or not, their latest report noted.
"Risks that have not appeared for a long time can be ignored by investors or even assumed not to exist.
"To some extent we believe that the current thinking around the residential property market is illustrative.
"In Australia, residential property is considered the safest of all assets. Residential property prices have not experienced a broad decline since 1991.
"Because property has not fallen for such a long time, the risks involved in investing in property are often assumed to be low."
According to Carleton and Parker, risks most likely to impact the residential property market include:
<ul>
<li>Significant effects from interest rate rises over the medium-term given the current low interest rate environment</li>
<li>Unemployment rates which may increase from the current levels</li>
<li>Natural headwinds for domestic economic growth that overcome any tailwinds</li>
<li>High debt levels compared to historical household leverage ratios such that any deleveraging may negatively impact prices</li>
</ul>
In their opinion, the lack of a meaningful correction in property prices over such a significant length of time is more likely to imply that the risk might be quite high, because excesses in the system have been allowed to build for such a long period.
Similarly the fact that growth rates in house prices have exceeded growth in household income indicates to us that prospective residential housing returns will be significantly lower going forward. But many draw the opposite conclusion, that the historical growth rates are evidence that house prices should continue to grow at those rates in the future.
The inference is that past returns tell us something about future returns, they advised.
Their report said his extrapolation bias carries considerable risk.
National property price growth appears to have two main drivers, national household income growth and leverage.
Over the very long run we might assume that leverage levels oscillate within a range, dependent on the availability of credit and sharing an inverse relationship with the level of interest rates.
If that is true, then in the very long run property price growth should reflect growth in incomes, the report noted.
Adding but this has not been the case in the domestic residential market. Property prices have outstripped household income growth by a considerable margin for some time.
The probability that residential property prices are currently elevated appears to us to be quite high, based on a number of very favourable drivers that are present, including:
- Very low interest rates and therefore borrowing costs
- High debt levels (closely correlated with declining interest rates);
- Solid employment levels (the current unemployment rate is 5.7 percent)
- Strong long term historic growth (currently 1.8 percent and 25 years without a recession).
 
What the Auscap Report said:
 
The preconditions for high property prices are in place. Prices have risen to reflect the favourable macroeconomic factors. But like a stock that is pricing in the continuance of favourable conditions, this most likely means that the downside risks associated with investing in property are elevated.
Risks to the current residential property climate include:
- With global interest rates close to the zero bound, it is hard to envisage significantly better borrowing conditions than currently exist and the risk that interest rates rise over the medium term could be significant;
- Unemployment could rise from current levels
- Domestic economic growth probably has more natural headwinds than tailwinds over the medium term, especially when compared with recent history 
- Debt levels are high in the context of historical household leverage ratios and may fall over time, meaning that any deleveraging would most likely have a negative impact on prices.
We analysed the property market against the two factors we assumed would be the predominant factors affecting property prices, household incomes and debt levels. Below is a chart comparing property price growth against a composite index of the two factors.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/23/Chart%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/23/Chart%201.jpg" alt="" width="467" height="269">
It appears that over the last 20 years the correlation between property prices and the composite index is very high, implying what would appear to be logical, that property prices are primarily a function of household income growth and growth in leverage. The short term moves in the composite index also mirror the short term growth rates in house prices, as shown below.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/23/Chart%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/23/Chart%202.jpg" alt="" width="445" height="264">
 
The charts demonstrate visually what we know to be true, that property prices have grown by 7.4 percent per annum, a growth rate many take comfort from in making assumptions around future growth.
But the charts also imply that this has been a function of both growth in household income (which has been circa 3.7 percent pa) and the growth in household debt (which has been circa 3.3 percent pa).
Analysing this situation as though residential property prices were a stock, we would try to form sensible expectations around household income growth and growth in leverage in the future.
Household income growth is to a large extent tied to GDP growth, which we expect to be modest over the medium term. Recent growth rates have been lower than historical growth because of headwinds facing the economy that we expect will continue.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/23/Chart%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/23/Chart%203.jpg" alt="" width="447" height="233">
On the other hand, leverage levels have risen as interest rates have fallen. We doubt that household borrowing costs can fall substantially from here, implying that growth in household debt levels may be limited.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/23/Chart%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/23/Chart%204.jpg" alt="" width="411" height="208">
If this is the case, the best house price growth we might expect is for property prices to grow in line with historical household income growth. But there are a many downside scenarios that are also possible.
Household income might grow more slowly should Australia face periods of slower or even negative growth. The fact that there has not been a nationwide decline in GDP in 25 years implies the risk of such a scenario is elevated, not reduced.
It may not occur, but we can confidently propose that this scenario is not being considered or assessed by the majority of households in the same way it was in 1992, immediately after the last broad decline in Australian residential property prices.
Household leverage may need to decline should interest rates rise. If this were the case, falling leverage may drag on house price growth, rather than add to it as it has for the last 20+ years. If the decline in leverage is greater than growth in incomes, property prices may actually fall.
Certainly our conclusion would be that a continuation of the 7.4 percent per annum growth in household prices witnessed over the last 20 years seems extremely unlikely in the absence of borrowing costs continuing to fall, which we see as limited given where interest rates are currently, the report concluded.
 
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The risks in property in 2017 for Australia are getting higher

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Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has conceded that he has "some discomfort' about rising Sydney house prices, but argued that these concerns need to be weighed up against the need to stimulate economic activity across the nation. 
He said the Reserve Bank remained confident there was little evidence of a widespread bubble in house prices.
Australia had a new "two speed" economy, with strong growth in states such as NSW, while resource-rich states, such as Western Australia and Queensland, had seen growth rates slump as the mining boom had ended.
Hie final interview with The Australian Financial Review, mentioned some mixed evidence as to the strength of the housing market. 
"Prices are probably rising smartly in some areas, but in other areas they're not, and in some cities in the country, they're falling," he said.
"So I think it's a mixed picture. It's not without risk, and it certainly gives me some discomfort, but then we're balancing that against the other obligations we have to pursue."
He said the RBA was tasked "to balance all these things and make a decision that neither completely ignores the financial stability and housing concerns, nor let them completely dictate the decision.
"That's the balance that we've tried to strike".
"Most of the domestic effects of cheap money comes through the household sector. Higher house prices than otherwise, more borrowing than otherwise, wealth effects, lower saving rate, etc."
But he added, "the thing that I've tried to grapple with is – that's where we get the effects, but do we actually want households to engage in a major levering-up from here?
"It's not that what they did before was disastrous – that clearly hasn't been. But from here, how much more do you want?"
"As the facts at the moment are, the credit growth of households is running about 6 percent. Fractionally less if you take account of a build-up in mortgage offsets and so on".
He added, "I don't think you can say this is a terrible risk. If it was 10 percent or 15 percent – that would be a different story".
He noted two speed housing price movements.
"It's probably not that surprising that parts of Sydney are leading the charge, because this economy is leading the country at the present time."
This, he added, is something "which, actually, we needed if we're to manage the transition after the mining boom".
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Housing markets not without risk as Sydney leads the charge: RBA's Glenn Stevens

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Moody's Investors Service says that signs of a re-acceleration in Australian house prices are credit negative for Australian banks and pose a risk to the economy.
The 2016 spurt had raised the banks' sensitivity to downside risk in the housing market.
"The likelihood of an outright downward correction in prices is rising,” the agency advised.
Moody’s Investors Service viewed loans taken out over 2014-15 as “bearing the most risk, given that they were originated after significant house price appreciation had already occurred”.
While noting strong employment conditions and low interest rates continue to support the quality of the banks' housing portfolios, the household debt/income ratios continue to rise.
Moody's conclusions are contained in its report, "House Price Growth is Increasing Tail Risks for Australian Banks".  
Annual house price growth has risen over the past two months, increasing by 10 percent for the 12 months to May 2016.   Moody's says that there is evidence the banks' appetite for investor lending is returning, after a period of tighter underwriting to comply with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's 10 percent annual limit for growth in such loans.  
Moody's points out that over the past month, a number of lenders have lifted their maximum loan to value ratios for investor lending, and there are indications that the banks are becoming more competitive in their pricing for investor loans.  Moody's notes, however, that some of the newer lending activity can be explained by investors bringing their purchase plans forward, ahead of the federal election.  
"These trends are unfolding against a backdrop of already high levels of household indebtedness, and elevated overall leverage in the economy," says Daniel Yu, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.
"The current trends are therefore credit negative for Australian banks, particularly in the context of the banks' high ratings, because these trends raise the banks' sensitivity to any potential deterioration in the housing market," Yu suggested.
According to Moody's senior vice president Ilya Serov, the housing market in Australia appeared to have accelerated over the past couple of months partly on the back of the cut in interest rates in May.
Mr Serov told he ABC's The World Today investors were exposed if the RBA moves or banks hike rates independently.
"The economy now I think from a household sector is more sensitive to increases in interest rates should they occur," Mr Sherov said.
"We are already in an economy which is characterised by fairly high levels of debt particularly in the household sector and the debt to income ratio which had been stable is now creeping up again."
 
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