An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.

The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.

The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.

Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" />

It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.

The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." />

Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.

&nbsp;

At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.

<img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" />

The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.

The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.

Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.

Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.

The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" />

Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.

At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" />

The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.

Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.

The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" />

The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.

Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

Intention

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Consumer confidence continues to improve in September. Sentiment has lifted in four of the past five weeks.
Importantly, households are showing increased appetite for making a major household purchase.
In fact, the ANZ-Roy Morgan sub-index measure of whether it was a ‘good time to buy a major household item’ rose by 5.3 per cent to 1.8 points last week – the highest level since late June.
‘Stay-at-home’ Aussies have shown a strong desire to upgrade their homes during the pandemic. CBA credit and debit card spending on household furnishings and equipment over the week to September 11 is up 28 per cent on a year ago. And annual spending is above 30 per cent across all states and territories except Victoria (up 6.1 per cent).
Post-lockdown retail spending has been boosted by greater mobility, government payments and superannuation withdrawals. And household savings and potential tax cuts – along with closed international borders – could see pent up demand from consumers even as stimulus is tapered into year-end.
What do the reports and figures show?
Consumer sentiment – Week ended September 13
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 1.4 per cent to 92.4 (long-run average since 1990 is 112.6). Confidence has lifted in four of the past five weeks. Sentiment is up by 41.5 per cent since hitting record lows of 65.3 on March 29 (lowest since 1973).
Four out of five of the major components of the index rose last week:
The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) credit card data – Week ended September 11
According to Commonwealth Bank (CBA), card spending in the week to September 11 was up 4.7 per cent on a year ago, compared to a 5.2 per cent lift for the week ended September 4. Online spending rose 17.4 per cent on a year ago (previous week: +21.9 per cent), but in-store spending was down 0.6 per cent (previous week: -2.1 per cent). Victorian card spending fell by 11.3 per cent on a year ago (previous week: ‑10.3 per cent), but Tasmanian spending was up 16.4 per cent (previous week: +18.2 per cent) compared to a year ago.
CBA noted, “Annual spending growth in all jurisdictions broadly tracked sideways over the past week. Spending on eating and drinking out has firmed over the week. In‑store spending is edging higher nationally and in Victoria it looks to have passed the trough.”
The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Household Spending Intentions Series (HSI): August
According to the CBA, “The impact of the stage 4 lockdowns in greater Melbourne throughout August are clearly evident in the CBA Household Spending Intentions series for the month. The improvement seen during July in Home Buying, Retail, Travel, Entertainment and Education spending intentions all stalled in August. Health and Fitness spending intentions picked up in August, while Motor vehicle spending intentions continued to edge higher.”
On home buying intentions: “Home buying spending intentions for August retreated from their July highs. While there was a further increase in home loan applications, Google searches related to home buying declined slightly on the month.”
On retail spending intentions: “Retail spending intentions pulled‑back in August, consistent with our high‑frequency CBA credit/debit card spending data.”
On travel spending intentions: “The recovery in Travel spending intentions stalled in August, impacted by the restrictions imposed in Victoria.”
On health &amp; fitness spending intentions: “Health &amp; fitness spending intentions picked up in August. While actual spending was a little lower on the month, Google searches related to health saw an increase.”
On entertainment spending intentions: “Entertainment spending intentions pulled‑back a little in August, led lower by declines in food (eating out) and alcohol spending on licenced premises.”
On education spending intentions: “Education spending intentions were little changed in August, with some softness in spending and in Google searches for the education sector.”
On motor vehicle purchase intentions: “Motor vehicle spending intentions picked up in August and are back in positive territory for the first time since the start of the Covid‑19 pandemic.”
Kepler index of retail sales activity – Week ended September 13
The Kepler index of retail sales reported that aggregate sales fell by 13.2 per cent last week (September 13) to be down 26.9 per cent on the year. Average transaction value rose 0.1 per cent last week to be up 22.6 per cent on a year ago. Passer-by traffic fell 1.9 per cent last week to be down 52.6 per cent on the year. The weekly store shut down rate rose to 29 per cent (prior week: 27 per cent) with Victoria’s rate at 87 per cent.
OpenTable restaurant reservations – Week ended September 13
Australian restaurant reservations were down 9 per cent on September 13 from a year earlier, firmer than the 40.7 per cent drop recorded on September 6, according to OpenTable. Sit down diners fell by 99.7 per cent in Victoria (previous: -99.9 per cent), but were up by 61.6 per cent in Queensland (previous: up 146 per cent) and up 35.2 per cent in NSW (previous: +127 per cent).
Moovit change in public transport demand – Week ended September 13
Demand for public transportation – as measured by the urban trip planning app Moovit – was mixed over the week to September 13 (compared with the pre-pandemic level of January 15) from a week earlier in most of Australia’s biggest cities:
<ul>
<li>Sydney &amp; NSW: -43.7 per cent (previous week: -43.3 per cent)</li>
<li>Perth: -32.7 per cent (previous week: -36.5 per cent)</li>
<li>Brisbane &amp; South-East Queensland: -41.5 per cent (previous week: -41.1 per cent)</li>
<li>Melbourne &amp; Victoria: -83.1 per cent (previous week: -83 per cent).</li>
</ul>
What are the implications for investors?
Consumer confidence continues to improve due to increasing mobility in virus ‘free’ states and territories. Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, Aussies are more confident about going about their daily activities with the virus all but supressed. The notable weakening in sentiment last week in the two biggest cities and virus ‘hotspots’ – Melbourne (down more than 5 per cent) and Sydney (down over 3 per cent) – suggests that consumer caution remains elevated, weighing on the broader economic recovery.
Next week’s standout data release will be much-anticipated preliminary retail trade figures for August. The CBA Household Spending Intentions survey released today suggests that retail spending intentions pulled back in August. High frequency weekly CBA card spending and the Kepler Analytics retail gauge also imply a decline in spending during the month. Of course, Melbourne entered stage 4 lockdown restrictions in August with Victorian retail spending adversely impacted by social distancing measures and temporary retail store closures. But greater mobility in the ‘virus free’ states and territories are supportive of consumption and could yet offset the decline in Victorian spending.
RYAN FELSMAN is a Senior Economis at CommSec
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Consumer spending intentions hit 11-week high: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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The latest monthly data from the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Series indicates that home buying spending intentions are running at a record rate. 
CBA Chief Economist Michael Blythe said, "there are some early signs of a ‘wealth effect’ from the housing market supporting spending on motor vehicles, albeit from a very low level, as well as travel and entertainment."
This means the pick-up in dwelling prices in the second half of 2019 will continue into the first half of this year, and the residential construction downturn should be approaching bottom.
“Past cycles show that leading indicators like building approvals turn about three month after home buying intentions start to lift. A bottoming in the construction cycle would remove a major growth drag on the economy, and also helps retailing," Mr Blythe said.
Noting that retail HSI remained low, Mr Blythe commented, “the flat trend in the retail HSI remains a disappointing outcome relative to the stimulus applied via interest rate cuts, tax rebates and the upturn in dwelling prices. The zig-zag pattern for the retail HSI indicates that the ‘Black Friday’ event brought forward spending from December into November without necessarily boosting spending overall."
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Home buying intentions have reached a record high: CBA

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The latest data from the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) series released today shows the sharp increase in home buying intentions is continuing.
CBA’s Chief Economist Michael Blythe said, “The sharp upswing in home buying intentions continues and intentions are now approaching the record highs seen in early 2017.”
Current HSI readings are consistent with an ongoing increase in dwelling prices and a bottoming out in residential construction activity.
“The ongoing improvement in the home buying intentions series indicates that the low point for residential building construction will probably be around mid 2020,” he added.
Mr Blythe said retail spending intentions show a modest improvement is in place.
“The latest edition of the Commonwealth Bank HSI series, which incorporates data to the end of October, supports the RBA’s view that the economy has reached a ‘gentle turning point’. But the improvement is quite modest given the size of tax rebates and interest rate cuts delivered in recent months,” Mr Blythe said.
“By fuelling fears about the economic outlook, rate cuts are probably blunting some of the potential boost from tax rebates and rising house prices,” he added.
Mr Blythe also noted that trends in some non-retail spending look reasonably encouraging.
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Home buying intentions approaching boomtime levels: CBA

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New research has identified a sharp decline in the number of home buyers intending to take out a home loan.
The data from Roy Morgan shows that in the three months to October 2018, 1.21 million people said that they intended to take out a home loan in the next 12 months. This represents a decline of 260,000 or 17.7% from the 1.47 million recorded over the same period last year and is a major challenge to banks in achieving new lending volumes over the coming 12 months.
These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey (Australia) which is based on in-depth personal interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 Australians per annum in their own homes, including details on over 2,500 people who intend to take out a home loan in the next 12 months.
2018 shows deteriorating level of intentions 
In the January quarter 2018, the level of home loan intentions was a very positive 7.3% of the population, representing 1.48 million people. This deteriorated significantly in the April quarter to 6.3% (1.29 million), a decline of 190,000 or 12.8%. The July and October quarters in 2018 fell further to 5.9% (1.21 million), representing an overall decline of 17.7% since the October 2017 quarter.
Intention to take out home loan in next 12 months
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/19/home%20loan%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/19/home%20loan%201.png" alt="">
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). 15 months to October 2018, n = 62,413. Base: Australians 14+.
First home borrowers a drag on intention levels
The reason that home loan intention levels have fallen over the past year is due to the decline in first home intenders. In the October 2018 quarter only 411,000 first home borrowers intend to take out a loan in the next 12 months, this is down by 44.5% on the 740,000 recorded a year earlier.
The largest group currently of intenders are those existing borrowers who plan to switch their home loan to a different provider. This segment accounts for 549,000 people or 45.4% of all intenders and has held steady, having recorded 544,000 at the same time last year.
The biggest gain over the last 12 months was in the group that have had a loan in the past but wish to move and take out a loan. They number 249,000 currently, an increase of 64,000 or 34.6% over the year
Intention to take out home loan in next 12 months – By type of intender
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/19/home%20loan%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/19/home%20loan%202.png" alt="">
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). 3 months to October 2017, n=12,054; 3 months to October 2018, n=12,327.
Base: Australians 14+.
Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan says: 
“The decline in home loan intenders over the last year is likely to have a major impact on banks in the coming year, particularly as the drop has come from first home buyers who are major generators of increasing volumes. The reduction in first home buyers is likely to come from a number of potential reasons, including uncertainty as a result of declining housing values, likely interest rate movements, mortgage stress and job risks. 
“The current high level of negative publicity given to borrowing by the Finance Royal Commission is also likely to be impacting on both the supply and demand for home loans. The potential for the tightening of lending criteria and issues relating to mortgage brokers are just some of the likely issues to have a negative impact in this market.
“Data used in this release covers only a small part of what is available from Roy Morgan regarding understanding home loan borrowers and those who intend to borrow in the near future. To find out more regarding long term trends, brands and in-depth profiling, simply ask Roy Morgan.”
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