&nbsp;

A local Australian has spent a Lower North Shore record $15.1 million at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elevate-hume-place-crows-nest-25-hume-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Elevate Hume Place</a>, the new TOD above the recently opened Crows Nest Metro Station.

The buyer amalgamated a penthouse and sub-penthouse to create the triplex apartment that will have five bedrooms, five bathrooms, a private rooftop pool, expansive terrace, and panoramic views of Sydney Harbour and skyline. The building is being created by burgeoning developer Third.i, alongside joint venture partner Phoenix Property Investors.

The buyer was drawn to Elevate’s unrivalled connectivity, situated directly above the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a> Metro Station, and the vibrant lifestyle precinct that surrounds it. The Metro connects to the CBD in just seven minutes, and Chatswood in four.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=309367]

Designed by internationally acclaimed architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, Elevate draws inspiration from the ancient blue gum forests native to the area. The building is a Net Zero development, created in consultation with Indigenous communities and exceeding sustainability benchmarks. Interiors feature chevron-engineered timber flooring, natural stone benchtops, and premium Sub-Zero Wolf appliances, delivering timeless elegance and next-level comfort.

The exchange of the $15.1 million apartment, follows a recent $5 million sale, and over $30 million currently in expressions of interests. Interest in Elevate’s penthouse stock has surged, reflecting a strong appetite for ultra-luxury residences that combine design excellence with unmatched connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=309369]

“We’re seeing a significant uptick in interest from local and international buyers who are prioritising connectivity, sustainability, and lifestyle,” said Callum Billinghurst, Head of Sales at Third.i Group.&nbsp;

“These recent sales are a testament to the vision behind Elevate. It’s not just about luxury finishes or panoramic views, it’s about creating homes that are deeply connected to the city and the community. Buyers are responding to that. They want to live somewhere that offers more than just a postcode, they want culture, convenience, and long-term value. Elevate delivers all of that, and more.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142550 project_image_fid=297878]

As part of the Hume Place precinct, Elevate is transforming Crows Nest into Sydney’s most dynamic urban village. Elevate’s unique position directly above the metro, combined with its curated amenity offering, has made it a magnet for buyers seeking a future-proof investment and a vibrant urban lifestyle.

The next release at Elevate is expected later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=142550]

“We’re seeing a significant uptick in interest from local and international buyers who are prioritising connectivity, sustainability, and lifestyle,” said Callum Billinghurst, Head of Sales at Third.i Group


Joel Robinson

Third.i & PPI set Lower North Shore apartment record with $15.1m sale at Elevate Hume Place penthouse amalgamation

Sydney developer Deicorp is set to officially open its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hills-showground-village-castle-hill-2-mandala-parade-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Showground Village</a> precinct in Castle Hill.

NSW Premier Chris Minns will attend the opening on Sunday August 31, alongside&nbsp;Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully, The Hills Shire Council Mayor Dr Michelle Byrne, Landcom CEO Alex Wendler, and Deicorp Founder Fouad Deiri.

Located just moments from Hills Showground Metro Station, the centre spans 9,500 sqm across four levels and features 26 specialty retailers as well as a 1,400 sqm public plaza, creating a new community meeting point for shopping, dining, fitness, and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Showground Village forms part of the Hills Showground Station Precinct, an urban renewal initiative led by Landcom and Sydney Metro that will provide for around 2,300 new jobs over the next 20 years and around 9,000 new homes.&nbsp;

Deicorp was recently approved for another new development next door to Showground Village.

The new five residential buildings in the East Showgrounds Precinct, will see another 873 dwellings delivered, as well as&nbsp;3,500 sqm of open public space in the form of landscaped courtyards, a public park and communal outdoor recreational space including a playground, barbeque area, and outdoor seating.

“This approval will allow us to start construction on a range of beautifully designed, conveniently located apartments and create another vibrant, walkable and well-connected community,” said&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/deicorp" target="">Deicorp</a>&nbsp;Founder Fouad Deiri.

“These new homes will provide their residents with a seamless connection to jobs and services along Metro North West, and the new&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hills-showground-village-castle-hill-2-mandala-parade-castle-hill" target="">Hills Showground Village</a>&nbsp;retail precinct currently under construction."

Deicorp has several thousand apartments in planning and under construction across Sydney, from Zetland and Five Dock to Crows Nest and Macquarie Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=133881]

Deicorp, NSW Premier officially open Showground Village, new retail and hospitality hub in Castle Hill

ASX-listed developer Cedar Woods is progressing its plans for its Southbank arts precinct site.&nbsp;

The developer has filed plans, which are now with the&nbsp;Department of Transport and Planning, for a new 20-level tower at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/141-151-sturt-street-southbank-vic-3006">141–151 Sturt Street</a>, a 2,718 sqm block opposite the Habitat Filter sculpture.

The proposal seeks to demolish the two-level&nbsp;commercial building, including a small supermarket and medical tenancies, and create a new building with 180 apartments and a focus on an&nbsp;active public realm and arts integration.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Southbank site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="76a72db6-91ef-43ae-827d-a9cfa72893d2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Site.png?VersionId=DZgtB4K6BswVh0QtCs3iLjXaLp0CbcEb" />

&nbsp;

There will be a full mix of apartment configurations, including 28 studio apartments, 16 one-bedroom, 104 two-bedroom, and 32 three-bedroom units.

Retail, creative arts, and residential amenity functions are integrated across the lower levels. A food and drink tenancy is planned to front Dodds Street, while a retail tenancy fronting Sturt Street will be accessed via an elevated walkway. The first floor includes a substantial 734 sqm creative arts space, envisioned to support Melbourne’s growing cultural and digital industries.

Architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has put together the plans. In their&nbsp;Urban Design Report they highlighted the project’s ambition to embed itself within Southbank’s evolving cultural fabric.

A central feature of the design is a through-block link connecting Sturt and Dodds Streets, landscaped with native plantings and embedded with universal access ramps.

“The ramp has been thoughtfully integrated as the primary access point, ensuring universal accessibility for all users,” the report noted, with the link offering “a direct response to the urban planning scheme of creating more green spaces within our communities”.

<img alt="Southbank podium" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4d24b1b2-d69c-4a11-a11d-ec6df432221c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium.png?VersionId=geWoJyZDmPSLODZ_.PNJ0LvpOmyyCdpo" />

The building’s podium form responds to the mandatory height limits along Dodds Street and maintains a fine-grain interface to adjoining developments. Above the podium, the tower is articulated with recessed balconies and a focus on views toward the CBD and surrounding arts institutions. A communal rooftop recreation deck and indoor lounge are positioned on level four, adjoining seven apartments and providing over 900 sqm of resident amenity space.

Vehicle access and loading will be provided via Dodds Street, with 155 resident car spaces located across two basement levels and the first three above-ground floors. Bicycle storage is more generous, with 226 spaces distributed across resident, staff and visitor needs.

Rothelowman describes the architecture as “humanist,” with ground-level interfaces designed to encourage social interaction and provide a dignified entry for both residents and passers-by. “All street interfaces are crafted to invite and nurture human connections,” the design report states. “The façade transitions to a human scale, providing an approachable and engaging streetscape”.

Cedar Woods, while well-known for its large communities it develops outside of Australia's capital cities, they have recently developed in Melbourne's inner-ring before. They are approaching completion at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/88-leveson-north-melbourne-88-leveson-street-north-melbourne-vic-3051">88 Leveson</a>, just 15 townhouses in the heart of North Melbourne.

Cedar Woods progresses with new apartment plans in Southbank arts precinct

Brisbane developers Core Property Partners and Vector Property Australia has teamed up for Brisbane's newest apartment development.

The duo identified <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as their preferred suburb, on the fringe of the Gabba Precinct, where they've just revealed BANKSII, 72 apartments opposite Raymond Park.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5481]

The one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments will sit in a glass-wrapped building that will also feature a rooftop with an&nbsp;infinity-edge pool, a BBQ area and alfresco dining spaces, sun lounges, and a sauna, as well as a resident-only gym and a ground-floor cafe.

Rhett Williams, Director of Vector Property Australia, said the project will lift the quality of the East Brisbane community and set a new benchmark.

"In Brisbane’s current property landscape, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/banksii-east-brisbane-169-wellington-road-east-brisbane-qld-4169">BANKSII</a> stands out through its emphasis on lifestyle-oriented living, connectivity and sophisticated design," Williams says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5479]

The 10-level building has been designed by MAS Architecture. Their designs were inspired by the native Banksia flower, with the architecture and interiors reflecting the organic symmetry of its namesake flora. MAS has interpreted this throughout the building’s curved form, façade detailing and interior palette.&nbsp;

The building’s flowing geometry and natural tones are complemented by large balconies and floor-to-ceiling glazing, maximising cross-breezes, daylight and views over the city, parklands and river.

“Having a strong narrative for a building helps us architecturally,” MAS noted. "We can choose colours that come off that species of flowers. The trunk and the trees and the flower elements all are now visible in our joinery on the inside and in our architectural finishes on the outside."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5485]

Apartments will feature timber floors, soft porcelain tiles, brushed bronze fittings, and stone benchtops with warm veining.&nbsp;

Kitchens feature premium SMEG appliances and generous storage, while bathrooms have been designed as calming retreats with curved cabinetry and twin sinks in the master ensuites.

The building will feature a suite of rooftop and wellness amenities. Residents will have access to an infinity-edge pool, BBQ and alfresco dining areas, sun lounges and a rooftop sauna.&nbsp;

A residents-only gym will be located on the podium level, while a ground-floor café and landscaped laneway will further activate the site and improve neighbourhood connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5488]

BANKSII will rise from a prime Wellington Road site, with the building oriented to overlook the adjacent Raymond Park and take in extensive city views. It is also on the doorstep of key&nbsp;lifestyle infrastructure, including the future Kangaroo Point Green Bridge, The Gabba stadium, and the planned Brisbane Live arena.&nbsp;

Public transport options, including ferry, bus and rail - including the future Cross River Rail Woolloongabba station - are all nearby, supporting a car-optional lifestyle just minutes from the CBD.

Williams said the team spent over a year searching for the ideal site before securing this location.

"We were attracted to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as it is a vibrant and growing community that offers a perfect balance of urban convenience and natural beauty with the parklands and river on our doorstep.”

The project is part of the broader Woolloongabba Games precinct, which is undergoing significant investment in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. This urban renewal, coupled with infrastructure upgrades, is expected to enhance long-term liveability and capital growth in the area.

Given the wide max of configurations, BANKSII is expected to suit everyone from first home buyers and investors to families and downsizers.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136432]

BANKSII sales launch in booming East Brisbane apartment market

The Minns Labor Government will deliver Sydney’s first new heavy rail station in more than a decade – enabling up to 10,000 new homes by rezoning land around Woollahra and Edgecliff stations, right next to the CBD, to tackle the housing crisis and rebalance growth across the city.

Recent reports by the NSW Productivity Commission have warned that Sydney is losing twice as many young people as it is gaining, while also finding that Woollahra is the most feasible Local Government Area (LGA) in New South Wales to build new housing.

Despite this, housing approvals in Woollahra consistently lag well behind other LGAs, and the population has declined by 11 per cent over the past 50 years while Greater Sydney as a whole has grown by 74 per cent.

The new station that will be an eight-minute trip from Sydney CBD, will be located on the Eastern Suburbs train line in Woollahra, where a station build was started in the 1970s but never completed.

To enable the delivery of new homes the NSW Government will lead a rezoning of Woollahra and Edgecliff stations similar to other state led rezonings to allow additional homes to be built around the stations.

Affordable housing will also make up a proportion of development on the site with the final amount of affordable housing required, to be determined as part of the rezoning process.

The area surrounding the new station is within walking distance of major green and recreational space including Cooper, Trumper, Rushcutters Bay and Centennial Parks.

The Eastern Suburbs train line between Bondi Junction and Sydney CBD also has the lowest passenger usage rates during the AM peak of any line on the Sydney network, with only 43 per cent of operating capacity during the AM peak currently being utilised by passengers.

Sydney Water and Infrastructure NSW have confirmed there is capacity in the water and wastewater systems to accommodate the proposed 10,000 dwellings without major upgrades.

The rezoning is expected to take around two years and will further support the Government’s housing targets that rebalance the delivery of new homes around existing infrastructure.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Next stop Woollahra train station - delivering up to 10,000 new homes in the heart of Sydney

Global Financial Crisis

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<img src="/images/2016/03/Holdencapital_banner.jpg" alt="" width="655" height="138">
SPONSORED POST
Currently we are seeing a constant barrage of articles from all sectors of the press and social media regarding the onset of an impending financial readjustment or even a collapse, with some arguing it will be worse than the last GFC.
There are many areas being pointed to as the likely root causes or triggers for this financial Armageddon and most are driven by international triggers well beyond our control, however the potential ramifications on our markets are being touted as devastating and even their potential occurrences are impacting our day to day business confidence.
One key area of influence that we have touched on previously is the impact of the post GFC capital requirements on our banks and how that impacts their appetite for construction lending. It is important to understand why this is happening but of more importance is what you need to do to ensure your business is not adversely impacted.
While the changes in bank policies towards construction lending will fluctuate within certain low risk parameters, these overriding regulatory requirements are not temporary responses to a specific event; they represent an ongoing constraint that will impact the pricing and structure of all future loan transactions and represent a new world order in construction finance.
Fundamentally this is because Australians have an expectation that their savings accounts will always be there when things get tough and they expect their politicians to ensure that this is so. No political leader wants to be explaining why they allowed unscrupulous lenders to lose the hard earned savings of their Mum and Dad depositors.
Accordingly, Governments of both persuasions continue to apply pressure on the major banks via the available regulatory levers to ensure that their contingent exposure to underwriting a portion of the banks deposit funds is appropriately controlled and that the banks risks are “well managed”.
History tells us that during booms, lenders can get over-excited and sometimes leads to being careless in the race to secure a share of the profits being generated as markets run hot, and then as it peaks and the signs are there that risks are increasing, the temptation to do “one more deal” often leads to losses.
The regulatory requirements being imposed on the banks are designed to minimise this risk and this is demonstrated by the recent changes seen their attitude towards construction lending that has been substantially pared back to ensure that they maintain appropriate capital reserve exposures.
Putting aside the question of the profitability of these types of loans to the major banks which we have also addressed in a previous paper, all bank loans of this type are now assessed on deal-by-deal basis with all the relevant factors input into a complex risk model in order to monitor the banks risk profile as prescribed by ASIC. As a consequence, there are far fewer “discretionary” decisions available to your bank manager when he deals with your application, which also reflects the lower risk appetite now prevailing amongst the major banks.
As a result of all this, developers can no longer expect their regular bank will provide the necessary funding just because “they have always done it in the past”. 
As many are learning, the fact that you may have had a 30+ year sound relationship with your bank is of no consequence and does not guarantee they will lend you money when you ask them for it, or on the terms they previously have.
With the banks limiting their exposure to the sector and pricing risk far more keenly than in the past, there is now a wide range of alternative providers of debt, equity and all the permutations between entering the market.
The challenge for tody’s developer is identifying which ones best fit both their business and specific project needs. This in turn requires a readjustment of expectations as to what constitutes an appropriate finance cost when assessing project viability.
While all this sounds like the industry has become a lot more complicated, and in some ways it has, it also means there are far more options available to Developers, enabling them to fulfil their project ambitions and maximise their available capital.
As a consequence, knowledge of all these competing options is a critical prerequisite to getting the best outcome. Even more importantly, engaging the right finance consultant who can navigate your transaction through to a successful conclusion, just as you would with any specialised requirement such as town planning or engineering solutions, is the key to securing funding and ensuring a profitable outcome for your next development.
As always, your success is directly related to how well you adapt and deal with change and as the saying goes, there is nothing surer than change. So make sure that you are setting your expectations at the appropriate levels and getting sound advice.
This article was written by Dan Holden of HoldenCAPITAL, who are a bespoke construction finance firm, they arrange construction finance and invest in projects through their equity fund, Queen Street INVEST. To discuss your project finance requirement please call (07) 3171 4200 or visit HoldenCAPITAL <a href="https://www.holdencapital.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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firstname-zEygzUaHDN

Development finance new world order: Resetting your expectations for success

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There is always someone telling us that there is some sort of economic/financial disaster coming our way.
However, there does seem to be a higher level of hand wringing now about the global economic outlook than normal.
 These concerns basically go something like this: 
Global debt – both public and private – is at record levels relative to GDP and with public debt ratios so high there is no scope for fiscal stimulus should things go really bad. 
Years of quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies like negative interest rates by central banks in major advanced countries haven’t worked and seem to have no end.
More and more debt globally is trading on negative interest rates – it’s now around $US14 trillion including around 25% of all government bonds – which is unnatural and causing distortions in valuing assets with risks of asset bubbles.
Inequality (as measured by Gini coefficients) is rising – particularly in the US – which is driving a populist backlash against rationalist market-friendly economic policies of globalisation/free trade (as evident in Trump’s trade wars), deregulation and privatisation. 
This along with the relative decline of US economic and military power is contributing to geopolitical tensions as we move from a “unipolar world” (dominated by the US after the end of the Cold War) to a “multipolar world” as other countries (China, Russia, Iran/Saudi Arabia, etc) move in to fill the gap left by the US or even “challenge” the US.This is all seen as being bad for global growth and hence growth assets, all of which is being heightened by the downturn in global growth seen over the last year or so.
 Five reasons not to be too fussed
There is no denying these concerns. Debt is at record levels globally. QE has been running in various iterations for more than a decade now in some countries.
Inequality is up – albeit its mainly a US and emerging country issue. Support for market-friendly economic rationalist policies such as globalisation, deregulation and privatisation seems to have waned (except in France). And geopolitical risks are up.
All these developments point to the risk of slower global growth and investment returns ahead and may figure in the next major bear market. But there is always something to worry about (otherwise shares would offer no return advantage over cash) and trying to time the next downturn is hard. Moreover, there are five reasons not to get too fussed about the global outlook.
1. Debt is more complicated than being at a record
History tells us that the next major crisis will involve debt problems of some sort. But what’s new – they all do! Just because global debt is at record levels does not mean that a crisis is imminent.
There are several points to note here:
<ul>
<li>debt has been trending up ever since it was invented; </li>
<li>comparing debt to income (or GDP) is like comparing apples to oranges as debt is a stock and income is a flow – the key is to compare debt against assets and here the numbers are not so scary because debt and assets tend to rise together;</li>
<li>debt interest burdens are low thanks to low interest rates;</li>
<li>all of the rise in debt in developed countries since the GFC has come from public debt and the risk of default here is very low because governments can tax and print money.</li>
</ul>
While Modern Monetary Theory has its issues, it does remind us that as long as a government borrows in its own currency and inflation is not a problem, it has more flexibility to provide stimulus than high public debt to GDP ratios suggest.
2. QE’s end point is not necessarily negative
Quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies actually do appear to have helped. Since its high in 2013 unemployment in the Eurozone has fallen from 12% to 7.5% and in the US it fell from 9% in 2011 to 4% in 2017 enabling the Fed to start unwinding unconventional monetary policy.
Inflation has not been returned to 2% targets, but wages growth has lifted and at the start of last year it looked like the global economy was getting back to normal. What kicked the global economy off the rails again was a combination of Trump’s trade wars, a debt squeeze in China and tougher auto emission controls. But this it wasn’t due to a failure of quantitative easing. As to how quantitative easing is eventually unwound there is no easy answer, but there is no reason to believe that it will end with a calamity.
First, in the absence of a surge in inflation necessitating a withdrawal of the money that has been pumped into the global economy there is no reason to withdraw it. And when inflation does start to rise it can be reversed gradually by central banks not replacing their bond holdings as they mature.
Second, the assets central banks purchased as part of QE have boosted the size of their balance sheets but the varied size of central bank balance sheets from one country to another as a share of their economy shows that there is no natural optimal level for them.
In fact, the Fed is now resuming natural growth in its balance sheet as occurred prior to the GFC so its balance sheet may just stay high (as along as inflation is not a problem).
Finally, if push came to shove just consider what would happen if say the Bank of Japan told the Japanese government that it no longer expects payment at maturity for the 50% of Government bonds it holds?
The BoJ would write down its bond holding and the Japanese Government would suffer a loss on its investment in the BoJ but that would be matched by a write down in its liabilities.
Basically, nothing would happen except that Japanese government debt would fall dramatically!
 3. Inflation and interest rates are low
The key thing that has caused many sceptics to miss out on good returns this decade is that they focussed on low inflation as reflecting low demand growth but missed out on the positive valuation boost to assets like shares and property that low inflation and low interest rates provides.
 4. Rapid technological innovation and growth in middle income Asia is continuing
This is well known and has been done to death, so I won’t go over it suffice to say that there are still a lot of positives helping underpin the global outlook and these two remain big ones.
5. Global growth looks like it may pick up
While the slowdown in global growth over the last 18 months has been scary and associated with share market volatility, the conditions are not in place for a deeper slide into global recession like we saw at the time of the GFC – excesses like overspending, surging inflation, excessive monetary tightening are not present.
 In fact, various signs are pointing to a cyclical global pick up ahead: 
<ul>
<li>Bond yields are up from their lows &amp; look to be trending up;</li>
<li>The US yield curve is now mostly positive – suggesting the inversion seen this year may have been another false recession signal like seen in 1996 and 1998; </li>
<li>European, Japanese &amp; emerging shares are looking better; </li>
<li>Cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary, industrials and banks are looking better;</li>
<li>The US dollar looks like it might have peaked; and </li>
<li>Business conditions PMIs for the US, Europe &amp; China were flattish in October &amp; may be stabilising.</li>
</ul>
This saw the global manufacturing PMI go sideways and a rise in the services PMI and both still look like the 2012 and 2016 slowdowns.
These could be pointers to global monetary easing getting traction. Of course, much depends on what happens to geopolitical risks.
The US election next year will be a big one to keep an eye on and beyond that US/China tensions look likely to be with us for years. But there is reason to expect some respite in the short term on the geopolitical front:
First, the economic slowdown in both China and the US is pressuring both to defuse the trade dispute in the short term. This pressure is greater now as Trump wants to get re-elected next year and knows that he won’t if he lets the US slide into recession or unemployment rise.
China may prefer to wait till after the election but is more likely to opt for the devil it knows.
Second, Trump’s avoidance of retaliation after the attack on Saudi’s oil production facilities in September shows a desire to avoid getting into military conflict in the Middle East.
Third, Brexit risks are on the back burner for now (although they could still come up again next year).
Concluding comment
There is good reason to expect the global economic cycle to turn up in the year ahead just as it did after the growth in 2012 and 2016. This should be positive for growth assets like shares.
Finally, for those worried that more and more debt will trade at negative interest rates our view is that this is unlikely: many countries have already sworn off using rates including the US and RBA Governor Lowe says it’s extremely unlikely in Australia. And if growth picks up as we expect the proportion of global debt on negative rates will decline as it did after 2016.
DR SHANE OLIVER Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Five reasons I'm not fussed about the global economic outlook: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there has been an obsession with looking for the next recession.
In this regard, over the last year or so there has been increasing concern that a flattening yield curve in the US - ie the gap between long-term bond yields and short-term borrowing rates has been declining - is signalling a downturn and, if it goes negative, a recession in the US.
This concern naturally takes on added currency given that the current US bull market and economic expansion are approaching record territory in terms of duration and given the trade war threat.
The increased volatility in shares seen this year, including a 10% or so pull back in global shares earlier this year, adds to these fears.
Whether the US is about to enter recession is critical to whether the US (and hence global) bull market in shares is about to end. Looking at all 10% or greater falls in US shares since the 1970s (see the table in Correction time for shares?), US share market falls associated with a US recession are longer lasting and deeper with an average duration of 16 months and an average fall of 36% compared to a duration of 5 months and an average fall of 14% when there is no recession.
Similarly, Australian share market falls are more severe when there is a US recession.
So, whether a recession is imminent or not in the US is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market is imminent.
The long US economic expansion and bull market The cyclical bull market in US shares is now over nine years old.
This makes it the second longest since WW2 and the second strongest in terms of percentage gain.
And according to the US National Bureau of Economic Research the current US economic expansion is now 109 months old and compares to an average expansion of 58 months since 1945.
See the next two tables. So, with the bull market and the economic expansion getting long in the tooth it’s natural to ask whether it will all soon come to an end with a major bear market.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/20/Oliver%20Graph%201.JPG" alt="">
The yield curve flattens – but it’s complicated 
The yield curve is watched for two reasons. First, it’s a good guide to the stance of monetary policy. When short-term interest rates are low relative to long-term rates it indicates businesses can borrow short and lend (or invest) long &amp; this grows the economy.
But it’s not so good when short rates are above long rates – or the curve is inverted. And secondly an inverted US yield curve has preceded US recessions. So, when it’s heading in this direction some start to worry.
However, there are several complications. First, which yield curve?
Much focus has been on the gap between 10-year bond yields and 2-year bond yields which has flattened to just 0.3%, but the Fed has concluded that the traditional yield curve based on the gap between 10-year bond yields and the Fed Funds rate is a better predictor of the economy and it has flattened but only to 1%
. based on the gap between 2-year bond yields and the Fed Funds rate predicted past recessions like the longer yield curves but has actually been steepening in recent years which is positive.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/20/Oliver%20Graph%202.JPG" alt="">
Second, the yield curve can give false signals – the traditional version flattened or went negative in 1986, 1995 and 1998 before rebounding – and the lags from an inverted curve to a recession can be long at around 15 months.So even if it went negative now recession may not occur until late 2020.
Third, various factors may be flattening the yield curve unrelated to cyclical economic growth expectations including still falling longterm inflation and real rate expectations, low German and Japanese bond yields holding down US yields and higher levels of investor demand for bonds post the GFC as they have proven to be a good diversifier to shares in times of crisis.
Fourth, a flattening yield curve caused by rising short term rates and falling long term rates is arguably more negative than a flattening when both short and long term rates go up like recently.
Finally, a range of other indicators which we will now look at are not pointing to an imminent US recession.
Watch for exhaustion, not old age
A key lesson of past economic expansions is that “they do not die of old age, but of exhaustion”.
The length of economic expansions depends on how quickly recovery proceeds, excess builds up, inflation rises and the central bank tightens.
The US economic recovery may be long, but it has been very slow such that average economic and employment growth has been around half that seen in post WW2 expansions.
So as a result it has taken longer than normal for excesses to build up.
Apart from flattening yield curves one area where the US is flashing warning signs is in relation to the labour market where unemployment and underemployment have fallen about as low as they ever go warning of a wages breakout and inflation pressure.'
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/20/Oliver%20Graph%203.JPG" alt="">
However, there is still arguably spare capacity in the US labour market (the participation rate has yet to see a normal cyclical rise) and wages growth at 2.7% remains very low.
The last three recessions were preceded by wages growth above 4%.
Secondly, while US GDP is now back in line with estimates of “potential”, what is “potential” can get revised so it’s a bit dodgy and more fundamentally, industrial capacity utilisation at 78% is still below normal of 80% and well below levels that in the past have shown excess and preceded recessions.
Thirdly, cyclical spending in the US as a share of GDP remains low. For example, business and housing investment are around long term average levels as a share of GDP in contrast to the high levels in one or both seen prior to the tech wreck and GFC.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/20/Oliver%20Graph%204.JPG" alt="">
Finally, while the rising Fed Funds rate and flattening traditional yield curve is consistent with tightening US monetary policy, it’s a long way from tight.
Past US recessions have been preceded by the Fed Funds rates being well above inflation and nominal economic growth whereas it’s still a long way from either now. See the next chart.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/20/Oliver%20Graph%205.JPG" alt="">
US likely to see overheating before recession 
Apart from the amber lights flashing from the flattening yield curve and very low unemployment our assessment is that a US recession is still some time away as it will take time for excesses to become extreme and US monetary policy to become tight.
Looked at another way, the US is still more likely to overheat before it goes into recession.
We have been thinking recession is a 2020 risk.
The end of the current fiscal stimulus around then would also be consistent with this. However, given the current slow pace in terms of building excess, that 2020 is a presidential election year – do you really think Trump will allow the US to go off a fiscal cliff then? – and with 2020 being the consensus pick for a downturn, the risk is that it comes later.
Of course, an escalating trade war could mess things up earlier, although we still see a negotiated solution.
The rising US budget deficit is a concern but it’s more of an issue for when the economy turns down as this is when investors will start to worry about its sustainability. And of course a 1987 style share market crash cannot be ruled out but probably requires a share market blow off before hand.
In the meantime, the Fed has more tightening to do and while share market volatility is likely to remain high as US inflation and short rates rise, excesses gradually build and given risks around Trump and trade, with recession still a way off the US and global share bull market likely still has some way to go.
Dr Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital.
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