Developer Tian An LFD has been given the green light from the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority to go ahead with its new Chatswood apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hammond-greens-chatswood-5-9-gordon-avenue-chatswood-nsw-2067">Hammond Greens</a>.

The 35-storey mixed-use tower at 5-9 Gordon Avenue, on the edge of the Chatswood Bowls Club, will comprise 91 apartments, 22 of which will be affordable homes managed by Link Wentworth. They will sit above a two-level podium with retail and commercial space.

The plans were upsized from the early 25-storey scheme which proposed 64 apartments, following the Government's new planning provisions under the Housing SEPP that gave developers the opportunity to increase heights and floor place in exchange for an affordable housing component.

&nbsp;

The design by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">FJC Studio</a>&nbsp;builds on the concept first presented when the firm won the site’s design competition, describing Hammond Greens as “a unique form of vertical living that belongs on the North Shore - drawing on the vernacular and materiality of suburban living, and integrating native landscaping between the narrow tower forms”.

At ground level, 1,500 sqm of retail and commercial space will activate the podium, supporting a hybrid work environment and creating a stronger connection with the local community. Residents will also have access to an outdoor pool deck, yoga room, golf simulator, and landscaped gardens designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sturt-noble-landscapes">Sturt Noble Associates</a>.

&nbsp;

Located less than 500 metres from Chatswood Transport Interchange, the project contributes to the suburb’s growing pipeline of high-density development. It joins the likes of Changfa's recently launched The Anderson and Billbergia's Chatswood Grand Residences.

Hammond Greens is the first of two towers Tian is planning in Chatswood. They have a sister project, dubbed Hammond Place, just one street away at 15-19 Nelson Street. That will have around 110 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=142900]

Joel Robinson

Tian An LFD greenlit for Hammond Greens apartments in Chatswood as project launches

The sought-after Latent Defects Insurance policy, offering off the plan apartment buyers peace of mind for 10 years post-completion, has made its way to Sydney’s harbourside. Boutique developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/toohey-miller">Toohey Miller</a> has secured this insurance for its newly launched Elizabeth Bay development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/barncleuth-square-elizabeth-bay-4-4a-barncleuth-square-elizabeth-bay-nsw-2011">Barncleuth</a>. This marks the developer’s second project in the area, following the success of No. 1 Onslow Place.

Latent Defects Insurance, offered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/resilience-latent-defects-insurance">Resilience Insurance</a>, provides cover for structural or waterproofing defects in new apartment buildings. It is a policy that only the developer or builder can take out, not the apartment purchaser.

Located just&nbsp;off Macleay Street, one of Sydney’s most desirable high streets, Barncleuth offers a rare collection of only 10 residences. With just two per floor, each oversized floorplan has been designed by SJB specifically for the owner-occupier.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140184 project_image_fid=356342]

The five-storey building captures views over Rushcutters Bay and Paddington, blending contemporary brickwork with the expressive silhouettes of its Art Deco neighbours.

Inside, the residences, designed by David Hicks, prioritise generous scale and enduring quality, with a mix of two- and three-bedroom layouts. Expansive terraces and cross-ventilated interiors maximise light and airflow, while sustainable features such as a green roof and locally sourced materials reflect SJB’s commitment to long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140184 project_image_fid=356341]

Developer Toohey Miller, led by Nick Couloumbis, says the design aims to bring lasting quality to an area long celebrated for its apartment heritage.

"It's a stone's throw from the best restaurants in Sydney. Some people call it the Soho of Sydney," Couloumbis told Apartments.com.au when the project was approved.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140184 project_image_fid=356337]

By securing <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/resilience-latent-defects-insurance">Resilience Latent Defects Insurance</a>, Barncleuth joins a growing group of premium Sydney projects adopting the gold standard in building protection.&nbsp;

The cover, provided before construction begins, ensures any hidden structural or waterproofing defects are repaired immediately, without lengthy litigation or fault disputes.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent said the product has been a catalyst for renewed confidence in the off the plan market.&nbsp;

“Ultimately what we’re trying to do is build better buildings consumers can trust. When buyers take possession, they have full insurance protection from day one, for 10 years,” Nugent explained.

Unlike traditional policies such as strata or construction insurance, Resilience LDI is a first-resort, strict liability policy, meaning repairs are covered immediately without needing to prove negligence. Coverage extends to foundations, load-bearing walls, and waterproofing, the elements most critical to long-term structural integrity.

Regarded construction firm Jasara has been appointed to deliver Barncleuth. They are forecasting an early 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=140184]

Toohey Miller brings 10-year Latent Defects Insurance to Elizabeth Bay as Barncleuth apartments launch

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/golden-sedayu">Golden Sedayu</a> has unveiled plans for the next phase of its landmark $4 billion <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/burswood-point-saintly-entrance-burswood-wa-6100">Burswood Point</a> project, just 3.5km from the Perth CBD at the Belmont Racecourse site.

The Local Development Plan Application has been lodged for a world-class mixed-use hub (Precinct B) on the previously untouched 2.5km stretch of Swan River foreshore.

Designed by Skidmore, Owings &amp; Merrill (SOM), recognised for their work on the world’s tallest skyscraper, Burj Khalifa in Dubai and the One World Trade Centre in New York, Precinct B will feature 15 buildings, offering a mix of residential and commercial spaces including a shopping centre up to 30,000 sqm in size.

Complementing this, an internationally acclaimed five-star hotel, and a high-end pedestrian-friendly retail boulevard with vibrant day-and-night retail, dining, and entertainment venues, will provide exciting new ways for Perth residents to connect with the riverfront.

This latest milestone signals continued construction and expansion momentum across Perth’s premier riverfront community, which is set to attract local, national and international visitors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142314 project_image_fid=263304]

The masterplan features 110,000 sqm of public open space, which is comparable to other Perth landmarks including inner-city Langley Park and South Perth foreshore. The riverside precinct will be brought to life through a visionary landscape concept by globally renowned architectural practice Grant Associates.

With an impressive international portfolio, including Gardens by the Bay and Funan Mall in Singapore and Barangaroo South in Sydney, the firm brings expertise in creating environments that harmonise with surrounding amenity.

At 38 hectares, Burswood Point is one of the largest urban development projects ever undertaken in Australia, and one of Perth’s most transformative mixed-use developments.

Golden Sedayu Managing Director Andrew Sugiaputra said the company was working closely with SOM, Grant Associates and the Government of Western Australia to ensure Burswood Point’s design responds sensitively to its surroundings, reflecting and enhancing the character, history, and natural features of the local environment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=142314 project_image_fid=1817]

“West Australians enjoy a privileged outdoor lifestyle and the Swan River is central to their enjoyment,"&nbsp;Sugiaputra said.

"We’re proud to be creating something truly spectacular and unique for the city, a place that feels alive from sunrise to sunset, a place where people can stay, shop, dine, and celebrate life on the river."

Precinct B builds on the outstanding success of Burswood Point’s first residential stage, which has been met with exceptional market demand. Somerset Residences, a two- tower luxury apartment development, and the exclusive riverfront homes collection are under construction and selling fast. As the number of Perth houses listed for sale remain at or near record lows, Burswood Point will deliver 4,500 new homes over the next 10 years.

“Golden Sedayu is dedicated to delivering on our promises,"&nbsp;Sugiaputra added.

"Our clients can buy with confidence, knowing that the price is fixed throughout construction. In an industry that has faced challenging market conditions, we’re proud to provide our clients complete peace of mind and confidence in the value of their investment."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=142314]

Golden Sedayu reveals next 15 buildings in Perth's $4 billion Burswood Point precinct

Rising at the base of The Remarkables,&nbsp;diversified New Zealand developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>'s Mountain Oak Apartments presents a foothold in Frankton, one of Queenstown’s most dynamic and fast-growing locales.&nbsp;

Surrounded by soaring alpine scenery and year-round tourism drawcards, Mountain Oak Apartments is a masterplanned precinct that perfectly balances accessibility with lifestyle amenity.

<img alt="Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Frankton has emerged as a strategic growth zone just seven kilometres from Queenstown’s CBD, popular among both residents and investors for its proximity to the airport, the region’s two premier ski fields, Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, and an expanding network of shops, services, and recreation options. The apartments enjoy immediate access to the popular Market Street dining hub, as well as Five Mile Shopping Centre and the seasonal Remarkables Market, where locals gather for fresh produce and artisan goods.

The location also places residents near the gateway to South Island adventures. Scenic trails, golf courses, and Lake Wakatipu’s edge are within easy reach, while the historic village of Arrowtown, renowned for its preserved gold rush-era charm and walking routes, is a short drive away. Local transport connectivity is supported by the nearby airport and arterial roads, ideal for frequent travellers and short-term guests alike.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Living_WEB.jpg?VersionId=3LglY20Jp_MAzQYdvwODRWvtjL.cZcqI" />

Tourism-driven demand underpins strong investment fundamentals in Queenstown, with a noted shortage of short- and long-term accommodation stock. Mountain Oak’s 365-day visitor accommodation consent directly addresses this need, offering a rare opportunity to serve Queenstown’s dual population of holidaymakers and hospitality workers.

Construction of the 141 residences began in June 2025, with completion anticipated by mid-2027. Apartments range from one-bedroom to penthouses, with pricing from NZ$639,000. Dual-key options and low-maintenance finishes support a flexible rental model with strong gross return potential.

Staff Writer

From slopes to markets: Mountain Oak connects residents to the best of Queenstown

Deicorp is doubling down in the Hills Showground Station Precinct, the rapidly growing area surrounding the Castle Hill Metro and one of the state’s largest transit-oriented urban renewal sites.

Having launched Hills Showground Village several years ago, and now about 70 per cent through its build, Deicorp has brought another mini-masterplan to market just a few streets away.

The developer has now released the first of 873 residences in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/showground-pavilions-castle-hill-3-andalusian-way-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Showground Pavilions</a>, five new buildings located just 500 metres from the Metro, which connects Castle Hill residents to Martin Place in around 37 minutes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150067 project_image_fid=351416]

The mix includes one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, as well as a limited release of garden terrace homes with studies.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/turner-studio">Turner Studio</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/group-gsa">GroupGSA</a>, the residences are configured around a network of landscaped courtyards and podium-level gardens, with additional rooftop terraces offering views across the district.&nbsp;Communal amenities include a 3,500 sqm public park, playgrounds, shaded seating areas and walking and cycling paths.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150067 project_image_fid=351416]

Interiors feature flexible layouts with oversized living areas, deep balconies, SMEG kitchen appliances and floor-to-ceiling glass to maximise light and airflow.&nbsp;

Many apartments include a study space, while select residences offer private outdoor areas. A total of 44 apartments have been designated as affordable housing for key workers, such as nurses, teachers and police officers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150067 project_image_fid=351413]

On top of its strong connectivity to the city, Deicorp has delivered significant new amenity to the area. The developer recently opened the 9,500sqm, four-level retail precinct at Hills Showground Village, which includes 26 specialty retailers and a 1,400sqm public plaza, creating a new community hub for shopping, dining, fitness, and everyday convenience. Castle Towers, one of Australia’s largest shopping centres, is also just one Metro stop away.

Between Hills Showground Village and Showground Pavilions, Deicorp is delivering more than 1,300 new homes to the rapidly growing Castle Hill precinct, representing a $2 billion investment in the suburb.

Showground Pavilions is one of several Metro-linked projects in Deicorp’s pipeline, joining developments at Tallawong Village, Zetland, Five Dock, Macquarie Park and Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150067]

Deicorp expands Castle Hill footprint with Showground Pavilions launch

Global Economic

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Even when "internal lockdowns" come to an end, it's likely that "external lockdowns" will remain in place.
Nations states will likely distance themselves from one another, initially through fear of reinfection from elsewhere.
There will also, however, be pressure to deliver new domestic "social contracts" that, in turn, may threaten the post-WW2 "rules-based" international system.
The return of "strategic industries" and "national champions"
There is likely to be a renewed focus on "strategic industries" and "national champions", a throwback to the 1950s and 1960s.
If political leaders wish to defend the interests of their citizens, they're likely to reject their earlier dependence on global supply chains that, at times of maximum stress, can be a source of vulnerability.
Agreement on common health standards?
A global or regional agreement on common health standards would be a desirable post-pandemic outcome, but this could be a challenge given, for example, the recent US temporary withdrawal of funding from the World Health Organization.
More broadly, the isolationist and protectionist rhetoric that emerged following the Global Financial Crisis may receive additional impetus.
Scarring
While there is a broad consensus amongst forecasters that economic activity will bounce back strongly later this year or in 2021, there is also broad acceptance that the level of economic activity will be permanently lower than it would have been in the absence of COVID-19.
We examine some of the key long-term drivers of this permanent shortfall and consider the varied implications for debt sustainability.
Technology and supply chains
Technology is likely to be a wildcard.
Already, we are learning to work from home and to engage remotely thanks to the internet: for many, the daily commute may become a thing of the past and we may never return to the skies in quite such numbers.
Advances in robotics and AI, alongside the enhanced desire for national security, may lead to a further significant shortening of global supply chains and a renewed home bias in the distribution of capital, leaving some nations states languishing even as others regain a semblance of their former economic selves.
Stephen King is a Senior Economic Adviser at HSBC Global Research
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Predicting the long-term consequences of COVID-19: HSBC's Stephen King

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
There is always someone telling us that there is some sort of economic/financial disaster coming our way.
However, there does seem to be a higher level of hand wringing now about the global economic outlook than normal.
 These concerns basically go something like this: 
Global debt – both public and private – is at record levels relative to GDP and with public debt ratios so high there is no scope for fiscal stimulus should things go really bad. 
Years of quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies like negative interest rates by central banks in major advanced countries haven’t worked and seem to have no end.
More and more debt globally is trading on negative interest rates – it’s now around $US14 trillion including around 25% of all government bonds – which is unnatural and causing distortions in valuing assets with risks of asset bubbles.
Inequality (as measured by Gini coefficients) is rising – particularly in the US – which is driving a populist backlash against rationalist market-friendly economic policies of globalisation/free trade (as evident in Trump’s trade wars), deregulation and privatisation. 
This along with the relative decline of US economic and military power is contributing to geopolitical tensions as we move from a “unipolar world” (dominated by the US after the end of the Cold War) to a “multipolar world” as other countries (China, Russia, Iran/Saudi Arabia, etc) move in to fill the gap left by the US or even “challenge” the US.This is all seen as being bad for global growth and hence growth assets, all of which is being heightened by the downturn in global growth seen over the last year or so.
 Five reasons not to be too fussed
There is no denying these concerns. Debt is at record levels globally. QE has been running in various iterations for more than a decade now in some countries.
Inequality is up – albeit its mainly a US and emerging country issue. Support for market-friendly economic rationalist policies such as globalisation, deregulation and privatisation seems to have waned (except in France). And geopolitical risks are up.
All these developments point to the risk of slower global growth and investment returns ahead and may figure in the next major bear market. But there is always something to worry about (otherwise shares would offer no return advantage over cash) and trying to time the next downturn is hard. Moreover, there are five reasons not to get too fussed about the global outlook.
1. Debt is more complicated than being at a record
History tells us that the next major crisis will involve debt problems of some sort. But what’s new – they all do! Just because global debt is at record levels does not mean that a crisis is imminent.
There are several points to note here:
<ul>
<li>debt has been trending up ever since it was invented; </li>
<li>comparing debt to income (or GDP) is like comparing apples to oranges as debt is a stock and income is a flow – the key is to compare debt against assets and here the numbers are not so scary because debt and assets tend to rise together;</li>
<li>debt interest burdens are low thanks to low interest rates;</li>
<li>all of the rise in debt in developed countries since the GFC has come from public debt and the risk of default here is very low because governments can tax and print money.</li>
</ul>
While Modern Monetary Theory has its issues, it does remind us that as long as a government borrows in its own currency and inflation is not a problem, it has more flexibility to provide stimulus than high public debt to GDP ratios suggest.
2. QE’s end point is not necessarily negative
Quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies actually do appear to have helped. Since its high in 2013 unemployment in the Eurozone has fallen from 12% to 7.5% and in the US it fell from 9% in 2011 to 4% in 2017 enabling the Fed to start unwinding unconventional monetary policy.
Inflation has not been returned to 2% targets, but wages growth has lifted and at the start of last year it looked like the global economy was getting back to normal. What kicked the global economy off the rails again was a combination of Trump’s trade wars, a debt squeeze in China and tougher auto emission controls. But this it wasn’t due to a failure of quantitative easing. As to how quantitative easing is eventually unwound there is no easy answer, but there is no reason to believe that it will end with a calamity.
First, in the absence of a surge in inflation necessitating a withdrawal of the money that has been pumped into the global economy there is no reason to withdraw it. And when inflation does start to rise it can be reversed gradually by central banks not replacing their bond holdings as they mature.
Second, the assets central banks purchased as part of QE have boosted the size of their balance sheets but the varied size of central bank balance sheets from one country to another as a share of their economy shows that there is no natural optimal level for them.
In fact, the Fed is now resuming natural growth in its balance sheet as occurred prior to the GFC so its balance sheet may just stay high (as along as inflation is not a problem).
Finally, if push came to shove just consider what would happen if say the Bank of Japan told the Japanese government that it no longer expects payment at maturity for the 50% of Government bonds it holds?
The BoJ would write down its bond holding and the Japanese Government would suffer a loss on its investment in the BoJ but that would be matched by a write down in its liabilities.
Basically, nothing would happen except that Japanese government debt would fall dramatically!
 3. Inflation and interest rates are low
The key thing that has caused many sceptics to miss out on good returns this decade is that they focussed on low inflation as reflecting low demand growth but missed out on the positive valuation boost to assets like shares and property that low inflation and low interest rates provides.
 4. Rapid technological innovation and growth in middle income Asia is continuing
This is well known and has been done to death, so I won’t go over it suffice to say that there are still a lot of positives helping underpin the global outlook and these two remain big ones.
5. Global growth looks like it may pick up
While the slowdown in global growth over the last 18 months has been scary and associated with share market volatility, the conditions are not in place for a deeper slide into global recession like we saw at the time of the GFC – excesses like overspending, surging inflation, excessive monetary tightening are not present.
 In fact, various signs are pointing to a cyclical global pick up ahead: 
<ul>
<li>Bond yields are up from their lows &amp; look to be trending up;</li>
<li>The US yield curve is now mostly positive – suggesting the inversion seen this year may have been another false recession signal like seen in 1996 and 1998; </li>
<li>European, Japanese &amp; emerging shares are looking better; </li>
<li>Cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary, industrials and banks are looking better;</li>
<li>The US dollar looks like it might have peaked; and </li>
<li>Business conditions PMIs for the US, Europe &amp; China were flattish in October &amp; may be stabilising.</li>
</ul>
This saw the global manufacturing PMI go sideways and a rise in the services PMI and both still look like the 2012 and 2016 slowdowns.
These could be pointers to global monetary easing getting traction. Of course, much depends on what happens to geopolitical risks.
The US election next year will be a big one to keep an eye on and beyond that US/China tensions look likely to be with us for years. But there is reason to expect some respite in the short term on the geopolitical front:
First, the economic slowdown in both China and the US is pressuring both to defuse the trade dispute in the short term. This pressure is greater now as Trump wants to get re-elected next year and knows that he won’t if he lets the US slide into recession or unemployment rise.
China may prefer to wait till after the election but is more likely to opt for the devil it knows.
Second, Trump’s avoidance of retaliation after the attack on Saudi’s oil production facilities in September shows a desire to avoid getting into military conflict in the Middle East.
Third, Brexit risks are on the back burner for now (although they could still come up again next year).
Concluding comment
There is good reason to expect the global economic cycle to turn up in the year ahead just as it did after the growth in 2012 and 2016. This should be positive for growth assets like shares.
Finally, for those worried that more and more debt will trade at negative interest rates our view is that this is unlikely: many countries have already sworn off using rates including the US and RBA Governor Lowe says it’s extremely unlikely in Australia. And if growth picks up as we expect the proportion of global debt on negative rates will decline as it did after 2016.
DR SHANE OLIVER Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Five reasons I'm not fussed about the global economic outlook: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
This decade has now seen three global growth scares - around 2011-12, 2015-16 and now since last year.
Each have been associated with softening business conditions indicators (or PMIs) as indicated in the next chart – see the circled areas.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/global%20manufacturing%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/global%20manufacturing%20.jpg" alt="">
And each have been associated with roughly 20% falls in share markets.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/global%20growth.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/global%20growth.jpg" alt="">
All have seen central banks shift towards easing to varying degrees.
And in the first two this saw growth indicators pick up again and share markets rebound and clearly move on to new highs. We now seem to be seeing a re-run – at least with respect to central banks.
Central banks go from tightening to neutral to easing
It had looked like a shift from a tightening bias to a neutral/slight easing bias – the US Federal Reserve’s “patient” “pause” and end to quantitative tightening and the European Central Bank’s new round of cheap bank financing (what they call TLTRO) and pushing out its guidance on how long it won’t be raising interest rates for – would do it for the Fed and the ECB this time.
But then the trade war resumed in May adding to a new round of fears about global growth and inflation. And so the ECB and Fed look to be going beyond neutral and back to “whatever it takes”, joining central banks in China, India, Australia, New Zealand and other countries in easing:
ECB President Mario Draghi has indicated this week that “in the absence of improvement...additional stimulus will be required” and that it “will use all the flexibility within our mandate to fulfil our mandate”. Further ECB easing could include more rate cuts (taking them further into negative territory) and a return to quantitative easing. ECB easing in July or September is looking very likely.
The US Federal Reserve at its June meeting has clearly shifted in a very dovish direction strongly hinting at interest rate cuts ahead.
It downgraded its economic activity assessment from “solid” to “moderate”, it noted falling inflation expectations, it dropped the reference to being “patient” in raising rates, it noted that uncertainties have risen, it lowered its inflation forecasts to below the 2% target and it said it will “closely monitor” the economy, which is often code for moving to easing.
While its dot plot of Fed officials’ interest rate expectations still sees rates on hold this year, it’s now line ball with eight out of 17 officials now seeing a cut of which seven see two cuts and many of those who have rates on hold see an increased case for a cut and it only requires one of those to shift for the dot plot to move to a cut this year.
What’s more, the dot plot now sees a cut next year and it has lowered the long run rate to 2.5%.
The dot plot is well down from a year ago when three rate hikes were indicated for this year and one for next year.
Overall, absent a clear move towards resolution of trade issues and much better data the Fed looks on track for a cut in July and we continue to see two Fed rate cuts this year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/fed%20dot%20plot.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/fed%20dot%20plot.jpg" alt="">
The shift towards monetary easing by the Fed and ECB risks ramping up currency wars again – at least in the minds of commentators – but as we have seen in the past this is just a means of spreading easing globally. And many central banks are already easing anyway.
This is of relevance to the Reserve Bank of Australia, which would prefer to see a lower Australian dollar.
The Fed now moving towards easing does make the RBA’s job a little bit harder on this front.
However, we still see the RBA easing more than the Fed as the Australian economy is weaker than the US economy and has much higher labour market under utilisation than the US (13.7% of the workforce in Australia versus 7.1% in the US).
So, we still see the Australian dollar heading down to around $US0.65 by year end. But Fed easing which will weigh on the $US generally is one reason why the $A is unlikely to crash to past lows.
Presidents Trump and Xi to meet
In the meantime, Presidents Trump and Xi will meet at the G20 meeting in Japan next week.
This could lead to a delay in the next round of tariff hikes on China - on the roughly $US300 billion of remaining Chinese imports.
Ultimately, I expect a deal to resolve the trade dispute because of the threat to growth in both countries (and the risks this poses to Trump’s 2020 re-election prospects). But given the false starts so far it’s not clear this round of meetings will do it just yet.
But it looks like we will get some combination of a trade deal/easier monetary policy or no trade deal and even easier monetary policy.
Implications for investors
The risks are higher this time around given the trade war mess and with the US yield curve inverting – although it does give false signals, has long lags and may be distorted by the threat of more quantitative easing, recently it may more reflect a plunge in inflation expectations as opposed to growth expectations and the normal excesses that precede US recessions aren’t present to the same degree now.
And there will be bumps along the way, ie shares could still go down in response to weak economic data and trade upsets before they go up and we are in a seasonally weak part of the year.
However, for investors it’s always worth remembering the old line “don’t fight the Fed”...or the ECB or RBA, etc. This is because low rates make shares cheaper and can help boost earnings.
While there is scepticism that central banks with the ultra low/negative rates and QE will do the trick, an investor would have made a huge mistake over the last decade betting against them!
So while the risks are higher this time around, my inclination is still to see the current period as just another global growth scare like those in 2011-12 and 2015-16 which will give way to somewhat stronger growth globally and higher share markets on a six to 12 month view.
Dr Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.
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