The Gold Coast economy has grown by 25 per cent since 2020/21 to surpass $55 billion, but perhaps the more significant story is what sits behind the headline number.

For decades, the Gold Coast has been viewed through the lens of tourism, lifestyle and population growth. The latest State of the City Report suggests that perception is increasingly out of step with reality.

Released by Invest Gold Coast, the report ranks the Gold Coast as Australia's largest non-capital city economy and, perhaps more notably, second nationally behind Sydney for Economic Complexity, a measure that assesses the diversity and sophistication of an economy.

It's a result that places the Gold Coast ahead of Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, highlighting the extent to which the city's economic base has broadened beyond its traditional industries.

Today, the Gold Coast supports more than 350,000 jobs, is home to over 83,000 businesses and generates $19 billion in annual exports. Manufacturing now accounts for 62 per cent of international export growth, while sectors including health, education, advanced manufacturing, technology and professional services are becoming increasingly important contributors to the local economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate said the report confirmed the city's evolution into one of Australia's most significant economies.

"The Gold Coast economy continues to grow at an incredible pace. This is no surprise to those of us who have watched the evolution up close," Mayor Tate said.

"As one of the most entrepreneurial, investment driven and opportunity focused economies in the country our ambition has been realised and possibilities are endless.

"The Gold Coast has built a reputation as the city that says yes. We say yes to investment, yes to opportunity and yes to people who want to build something.

"It's this mindset helping us drive major growth across health, advanced manufacturing, screen production, marine, technology and the knowledge economy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360975]

While population growth has been one of the defining stories of the past decade, the report points to a broader economic transformation taking place.

The city's knowledge economy now contributes $7.9 billion annually and supports around 31,000 jobs, while the health and wellbeing sector contributes $5.2 billion and employs more than 42,000 people. Together, the six priority sectors identified in the report account for almost $24 billion in economic output and more than 145,000 jobs.

One of the strongest examples is the Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct at Southport. The 200-hectare precinct now contains more than $5 billion worth of health, education, research and innovation infrastructure and supports over 16,000 jobs.

The report also highlights the growing role of advanced manufacturing, particularly in aerospace, defence and modular construction.

Gold Coast-based Gilmour Space Technologies recently became the first Australian commercial company to attempt an orbital launch, while companies including Modscape and ModnPods are helping establish the Yatala-Stapylton corridor as one of Australia's fastest-growing advanced manufacturing hubs.

The city's entrepreneurial culture is also translating into business growth.

Since 2019/20, the number of businesses operating on the Gold Coast has increased by 22 per cent, while firms employing more than 200 people have grown by 80 per cent. The report suggests the next challenge is converting more local start-ups and medium-sized businesses into nationally significant companies.

Development activity remains another key indicator of confidence.

There are currently more than $23 billion worth of major projects underway across the Gold Coast, supported by a record 75 active cranes, a figure that now exceeds Brisbane and represents a 150 per cent increase since 2016.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112024 project_image_fid=343235]

Importantly, the report notes the next phase of investment will need to extend beyond residential development.

While 93 per cent of crane activity is currently tied to housing, Invest Gold Coast argues future investment will increasingly need to focus on cultural, civic, infrastructure and industry-enabling projects that strengthen the city's long-term economic resilience.

Invest Gold Coast Chair Will Hodgman said the city was now benefiting from years of economic diversification.

"What is happening on the Gold Coast is the result of the city's economic base broadening, fuelled by industries with long-term, high-growth potential," Mr Hodgman said.

"This is no longer a secondary Australian economy, the Gold Coast is becoming a globally connected city with deeper capability across health, knowledge and creative industries, advanced manufacturing, technology and exports."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365786]

Looking ahead, the Gold Coast's population is projected to exceed one million residents by 2046.

For a city that was once largely defined by tourism and lifestyle, the latest figures suggest the Gold Coast is becoming something more significant, one of Australia's most diverse and economically sophisticated urban economies, and increasingly one that national and international investors can no longer afford to overlook.

Joel Robinson

75 cranes, $23 billion pipeline and a $55 billion economy: Inside the Gold Coast economic boom

Ron Bakir's Homecorp has sold more than 75 per cent of the apartments in its wellness-driven Florence Residences in Surfers Paradise following its first weekend release.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/florence-residences-24-monte-carlo-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">26-storey project on Monte Carlo Avenue</a>, which commenced construction earlier this year, has seen a flurry of buyers secure their slice of the Gold Coast's latest wellbeing-focused offering in one of the nation's most competitive property markets.

Since the pandemic, the Gold Coast's population has grown by more than 11 per cent, a rate approximately four times faster than Sydney's, driven largely by lifestyle changes and interstate migration. While buyer activity has moderated in some markets nationally, demand for newly built dwellings on the Gold Coast continues to gain momentum as purchasers increasingly prioritise lifestyle, amenity, wellbeing, liveability and long-term investment potential.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372743]

Homecorp CEO Ron Bakir says buyers today are looking for more than just a home.

"What we are seeing is a shift in how people define value in property," Bakir says.

"What attracts residents to new developments is a desire for more than just a residence. They are looking for a place that complements their lifestyle, supports their wellbeing and reflects the way they want to live into the future.

"Lifestyle, longevity, proactive health, wellbeing, connection and a sense of community are increasingly shaping purchasing decisions, particularly on the Gold Coast, where these factors continue to be a major drawcard."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372744]

Bakir says Homecorp is responding to this shift through an approach that places greater emphasis on design, amenity and experience working together to create places that feel considered, connected and enduring in value.

Inspired by Eastern European design, Florence Residences will comprise 120 apartments alongside a private residents-only wellness club featuring a resort-style rooftop pool, hot and cold plunge pools, a spa retreat, contemporary gymnasium, and a spacious yoga and Pilates studio.

The development will also feature a residents-only lounge with private dining facilities and a rooftop bar, premium outdoor entertaining areas, a hotel-style lobby lounge, generous bike parking, and pet-friendly amenities including a heated dog wash.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372742]

A limited number of apartments remain available, with an exclusive collection of four-bedroom sub-penthouses set to be released in the coming months.

Florence is one of the latest additions to Homecorp's expanding multi-billion-dollar property portfolio, which also includes plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/homecorp-lodges-plans-for-260-million-moroccan-bathhouse-inspired-tower-in-budds-beach">$260 million development in Budds Beach</a> tailored to the growing wellness market.

A development application has been lodged for a 27-storey, 156-residence tower at 8–10 Acacia Avenue and 25–27 Oak Avenue, featuring a residents-only Moroccan spa-inspired sanctuary.

Apartments at Florence Residences are priced from $1,249,000, with construction expected to be completed by late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150414]

Buyers rush to Homecorp's Florence Residences as Gold Coast wellness trend gains momentum

The NSW Government has expanded its $1 billion Pre-sale Finance Guarantee program, broadening access for affordable housing providers and smaller residential developments as it seeks to accelerate housing delivery across the state.

The Minns Government says the program has already helped bring forward more than 600 homes across Sydney and regional NSW since launching in September 2025, with similar models now adopted in South Australia and Western Australia.

The latest changes, announced by Treasurer Daniel Mookhey and Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully, are designed to improve access to finance for projects that have planning approval but are struggling to secure funding.

Among the key changes is an expansion of support for community housing providers. The program will now support up to 100 per cent affordable housing projects valued at up to $30 million when delivered by not-for-profit providers, while support for larger affordable housing developments will increase for projects worth up to $80 million.

The government says the changes will help accelerate the delivery of housing for low-income workers, older people, people living with disability, and those at risk of homelessness, while reducing reliance on direct grants or subsidised loans to bridge funding gaps.

The eligibility criteria for smaller residential developments have also been broadened. The previous $5 million minimum project value threshold has been removed and replaced with a requirement that projects deliver at least four homes.

Support has also increased for projects delivering fewer than 20 homes, with the guarantee now able to cover up to 75 per cent of dwellings in a development, capped at $30 million per project.

The changes are expected to particularly benefit smaller-scale and regional developments, which often face greater challenges meeting pre-sale requirements imposed by lenders.

Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said the scheme demonstrates how government can use its balance sheet to stimulate housing supply without relying solely on taxpayer-funded grants.

"The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee shows how this Government is using its balance sheet to reduce risk and unlock private investment, enabling new homes to move from design to construction faster," Mookhey said.

"This landmark reform allows us to deliver homes for working families at a lower cost to taxpayers, while also maintaining strong financial discipline."

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the program had already proven effective in bringing stalled projects to market.

"The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee has already proven it can unlock stalled projects and accelerate housing delivery by giving lenders the confidence they need to back good developments," Scully said.

"These changes will allow more affordable housing and smaller developments to access support so more homes can be built faster where communities need them most."

Housing Minister Rose Jackson said the expansion would help community housing providers overcome financing barriers that often delay projects.

"We know community housing providers are ready to build more homes, too often they're held back by barriers to finance," Jackson said.

"Expanding the Pre-sale Finance Guarantee helps remove those barriers so more affordable homes can get off the ground sooner."

The announcement was welcomed by the Property Council of Australia, which has long advocated for measures aimed at improving project feasibility and access to finance.

Property Council NSW Executive Director Katie Stevenson described the expansion as a practical intervention that addresses one of the most immediate constraints on housing delivery.

"This is exactly the kind of practical intervention we need right now, focused on getting projects out of the ground, not just approved," Stevenson said.

"It builds on a model the Property Council has worked closely with government to develop following calls for such a scheme ahead of last year's NSW Budget, so it's great to see it being expanded."

Stevenson said the reforms would help unlock projects that are ready to proceed but have been delayed by financing challenges. However, she noted that broader feasibility issues remain a significant barrier to increasing housing supply.

"The biggest challenge in NSW housing today is delivery. Too many projects have planning approval but are simply not financially viable to proceed under current settings," she said.

Speaking at the Property Council's NSW Housing Summit, Housing Minister Rose Jackson acknowledged that feasibility and financing pressures continue to constrain housing delivery, while reaffirming the government's commitment to work with industry on solutions.

Stevenson said the government's recognition of those challenges was encouraging ahead of next week's state budget.

"It's positive to see the government clearly recognising that feasibility pressures are now a binding constraint on supply," she said.

"With the Budget just days away, the focus must be on backing delivery, making sure projects stack up, finance can flow, and more homes can move from approval to construction."

The expanded Pre-sale Finance Guarantee forms part of the NSW Government's broader housing agenda, which also includes planning reforms, the NSW Housing Pattern Book, and a series of rezonings intended to increase housing capacity across the state.

NSW expands Pre-sale Finance Guarantee to unlock more affordable and regional housing

Design-led developer-builder Lowe Living has unveiled its latest residential development, Jardin House, marking its first foray into Melbourne's blue-chip City of Boroondara.

Located a short walk from Camberwell Junction, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House</a> has been designed to appeal to affluent local downsizers and established families seeking a low-maintenance alternative to the large homes that have long defined Camberwell and surrounding suburbs.

The project will comprise a collection of two and three-bedroom apartments ranging from 92 sqm to 280 sqm, alongside a limited number of penthouse residences featuring rooftop terraces spanning more than 100 sqm, with optional private pools.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372212]

Lowe Living Co-Founder and Managing Director Tim Lowe said Camberwell represented a natural next step for the developer as it expands into some of Melbourne's most tightly held residential markets.

"Jardin House is an important project for our team as it marks the next evolution of our portfolio into different well-established blue-chip pockets of Melbourne," Lowe said.

"Camberwell, with its incredible walkability, family-led neighbourhood feel and superb access to education and transport, makes it a natural choice for us."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372227]

Designed by Tristan Wong Architects, with interiors by Hecker Guthrie and landscaping by Acre, the development takes inspiration from the Art Deco architecture that remains a defining feature of many of Camberwell's established streets.

A curved facade, arched openings, textured brickwork and sculpted forms reference the suburb's architectural heritage, while extensive landscaping softens the building's presence and creates a strong connection to the surrounding tree-lined streetscape.

The project will be set behind a secure gated entrance, with residents arriving through landscaped gardens designed to create a transition between the public realm and private residences.

Inside, the residences feature natural stone and timber finishes, full-height glazing, Miele appliances and generous open-plan living areas designed for long-term owner occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372225]

While the apartments themselves have been designed to attract discerning owner-occupiers, it is the amenity offering that sets Jardin House apart from many other boutique projects currently launching across Melbourne.

The centrepiece is a 350 sqm private bathhouse curated in partnership with Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse founder Lyndall Mitchell.

The wellness precinct includes mineral pools, hydrotherapy experiences, a Himalayan salt room, sauna, steam room, cold plunge pools and dedicated relaxation spaces, creating what Lowe Living describes as a private wellness retreat exclusively for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372222]

The collaboration follows Lowe Living's recent partnership with Aurora at Maison Savoy in Brighton, although Jardin House is the first project to incorporate both indoor and outdoor wellness experiences.

Emma Lowe, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Lowe Living, said wellness was becoming an increasingly important consideration for apartment buyers.

"Collaborating with Lyndall Mitchell from Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse for a second time is an intentional nod to creating residences that are more than just homes, but a way to enrich the lives of our residents through wellness and longevity," Lowe said.

The amenity offering is complemented by a Technogym fitness studio, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and concierge services.

The launch comes as developers increasingly target Melbourne's established eastern suburbs, where rising land values, ageing housing stock and growing downsizer demand are creating opportunities for boutique apartment projects.

Lowe said the company expects significant generational wealth transfer across suburbs such as Camberwell in coming years, creating further demand for luxury apartment living.

"Camberwell is a blue-chip suburb where homes regularly transact for multiple millions of dollars," he said.

"The generational change of wealth in these locations expected in the coming years is significant, so we see an opportunity to create exclusive residences that appeal to older families and downsizers in order to meet this demand."

Apartments at Jardin house start from $1,195,000. The project forms part of Lowe Living's near-$1 billion portfolio of new developments across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146717]

Lowe Living launches Jardin House in Camberwell

As <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/north-sydney-nsw-2060">North Sydney</a> continues its transition from a commercial centre into a more layered residential and lifestyle precinct, a new generation of apartment developments is reshaping expectations around scale, amenity, and long-term liveability.

Improved transport connections through the Victoria Cross Metro, continued investment in dining and public spaces, and a constrained supply of new luxury apartments have sharpened demand for homes that combine proximity to the CBD with the privacy and outlook traditionally associated with harbourside houses.

At 177 Walker Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a>’s new apartment development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> enters the market with a distinctly residential approach to high-rise living. The 30-level tower will deliver 161 residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to sub-penthouses and a full-floor penthouse, all oriented to capture uninterrupted views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, and out toward the Pacific Ocean.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6395]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project takes advantage of the site’s natural topography and elevated position above the harbour. Rather than relying on density alone, the architecture focuses on outlook, orientation, and spatial flow, with every apartment occupying a corner position to maximise natural light and cross ventilation.

Rothelowman says the site itself shaped much of the architectural response.

“The site has a long history in terms of its inevitable transformation and when we came in, we took inspiration from the idea of reestablishing a sense of the site’s natural terrain and fall. Our scheme aims to integrate with the terrain and the landscape, using the undulating site to slowly reveal glimpses and views of the harbour. The rotation of the tower off grid means every apartment has a view and is naturally cross ventilated. The building's colour palette is quintessentially Sydney, with bronze and sandstone and a luminescent green colour in the glass, making it very earthy and grounded in its location.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6399]

Inside the residences, the emphasis moves toward larger-format living typically associated with standalone homes. Kitchens sit at the centre of the apartments, connecting directly to open-plan dining and living areas before extending outward into expansive winter gardens and balconies. Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, integrated appliances, and custom metal detailing are used throughout, while three distinct interior palettes, Terrace, Opera, and Harbour, allow buyers to personalise the spaces without compromising the architectural consistency of the project.

The larger residences place particular attention on separation between entertaining and private zones. In many apartments, master suites occupy the outer corners of the floorplates, allowing bedrooms to benefit from floor-to-ceiling glazing and harbour outlooks independent of the living spaces. Dressing rooms and ensuites continue the material palette through fluted detailing, freestanding baths, and layered stone finishes.

Rothelowman says the design intent centred on creating homes that feel enduring rather than transient.

“Our philosophy is all about the way people live in these spaces, and we wanted to create homes that reflect the quality of life in this unique Sydney location. The apartments showcase expansive living spaces that are generous, sophisticated, and bold, with the ability to connect with views throughout each apartment.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=353235]

A separate four-storey amenity building known as The Pavilion expands the residential offering beyond the apartments themselves. Positioned alongside the tower, the building consolidates wellness, recreation, and social spaces into a dedicated resident retreat. Facilities include a 20-metre rooftop pool and sundeck, sauna, spa, ice bath, wellness studio, gymnasium, concierge service, wine cellar, residents’ lounge, private dining spaces, and dedicated co-working areas with meeting rooms and boardroom facilities.

The amenity mix reflects the buyer profile emerging in North Sydney, where owner-occupiers and downsizers are increasingly prioritising convenience, apartment scale, and long-term usability over purely investment-driven decisions.

The Walden also represents a significant milestone for ALAND, marking the company’s first major move into Sydney’s inner-city luxury apartment market after more than two decades delivering large-scale residential communities across Greater Sydney. Founder Andrew Hrsto says the Walker Street site stood apart because of both its positioning and its rarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6390]

“As a company, we had been searching for a site in one of Sydney’s blue-chip locations, spanning the Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney CBD and the North Shore, and when we had the opportunity to purchase this site, we immediately recognised that it could be something iconic.”

At launch, The Walden recorded more than $103 million in sales, with buyers drawn to the project’s harbour positioning, apartment scale, and proximity to the Metro, which now connects North Sydney to Barangaroo in three minutes and Martin Place in five.

ALAND has commenced construction, and is expecting a completion date in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

The Walden pairs house-scale living with North Sydney connectivity

Gig Economy

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
It is fair to say that the 111k or 0.9% rise in employment was a big surprise. The market had been looking for –35k while Westpac was forecasting –50k.
We had based our forecast on the observation of a –1.0% fall in Weekly Payrolls in the first two weeks of August compared to the first two weeks in July (the Labour Force Survey is conducted in the first two weeks of each month).
Even when you take seasonality into account the 0.4% rise in employment in original terms was still much stronger than the –1.0% decline reported by Payrolls.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugPayrolls.JPG" alt="">
'Gig' workers driving recovery in employment.
In the August Labour Force Survey the ABS provided a reconciliation on the difference between the two series highlighting that Weekly Payrolls measure 'employee jobs' for which a payment was reported to the Australian Taxation Office through Single Touch Payroll. This includes jobs held by employees and owner managers of incorporated enterprises (the latter of whom can be paid through the payroll of their business). However, owner managers of unincorporated enterprises are not covered by Weekly Payrolls. There is also lower coverage of small businesses (&lt;20 employees) in the Payrolls data compared to large and medium businesses. As such, any change to the employment status of owner managers of incorporated enterprises without employees is less likely to be reflected in Weekly Payrolls than that with employees.
In the Labour Force Survey employed are categorised according to their 'Status of Employment' reflecting the nature of the employer-employee relationship. The categories are:
<ul>
<li>Employee – someone who works for an employer;</li>
<li>Owner manager of an incorporated enterprise – self-employed who owns and operates their own incorporated business;</li>
<li>Owner manager of an unincorporated enterprise – self-employed operating a business as a sole trader; or a,</li>
<li>Contributing family worker.</li>
</ul>
Owner managers (ie. self-employed) may or may not have employees.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugStatus.JPG" alt="">
In original terms, the Labour Force Survey reported a 44.5k/0.4% increase in employment in August. In the release the ABS noted that the increase in original employment was due to a 50.2k increase in owner managers (self-employed mostly unincorporated sole traders) without employees. This is likely to be dominated by 'gig workers' which can be defined by anyone who is engaged as a contractor rather than an employee. This includes far more people than just those who work as the large aggregation platforms such as Uber, GoCatch, Deliveroo, Airtasker, Freelacer etc. In contrast, there was a small 2.6k lift in the number of employees which was more than offset by a –9.3k decrease in the number of contributing family workers.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugGIG.JPG" alt="">
Excluding 'gig workers' employment was still stronger than the Payrolls measure of jobs.
If we exclude the 50.2k rise in self-employed, total employment would have fallen –5.7k which is closer to, but still stronger than, the –1.0% fall in Payrolls. Unfortunately, the data underpinning this analysis won’t be released until Thursday so we can only note the ABS comments at this stage and add that to the data we do have.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFpayemp.JPG" alt="">
Seasonality matters in August with employees contracting an average of -66.5k in last five years.
From the Labour Force Survey we know that August is a soft month for employment with the ABS seasonal factor falling -0.5% in the month. What we did not realise is that that seasonality is different for employees and owners/self-employed. On average through the last five years the number of employees fell -66.5k in August while the number of self-employed lifted 24.1k. That is to say it was not the strength of owners/self-employed that was surprising in the August survey but rather the lack of weakness in employees (+2.6k in the month compared to the average of -66.5k).
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugseason.JPG" alt="">
We can't exactly replicate the ABS season adjustment process but using eX12 we estimate that seasonally adjusted employees gained 78.8k in the month while the self-employed lifted 18.7k. The real story in August was not the surprising strength in the self-employed, at least half of which was a seasonal norm, but rather the lack of weakness in employees which would have significantly boosted the overall seasonally adjusted total.
Shutdown in Vic hit that state but the NSW recovery continued on regardless.
The shutdown in Victoria did hit the labour market in that state with employment falling –42.4k and unemployment lifting 0.3pt to 7.1%. Victorian employment is now just 9.5k/0.3% higher than the May low post the first round of shutdowns. The recovery in Victoria peaked at +51.9k/+1.6% from May to July.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugStateEmp.JPG" alt="">
The recent Weekly Payrolls data suggested the NSW recovery was running out of steam through July and into August but this did not show up in the Labour Force Survey. In August, NSW employment lifted 51.5k following on from a 56.2k gain in July and +80.3k in June. In the month, the unemployment rate fell 0.5ppt to 6.7%. The NSW labour market continued to power on in August even if the Victorian lockdown was clouding the economic environment.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugStateUnemp.JPG" alt="">
The smaller states continue a robust recovery.
Elsewhere, employment rose 18k in Qld, 32.2k in WA and 18k in SA. It was a similar story for unemployment where it fell 1.3ppt in Qld and WA to 7.1% and 7.0% respectively while it was flat in SA at 7.9%. 
Hours worked lagging in NSW and Victoria but rebounding elsewhere.
Even with the August surge in employment (+111.0k/0.9%) hours worked lifted just 0.1% due to a –4.8% decrease in hours worked in Victoria (employment fell –1.3%) while the rest of the country recorded a 1.8% increase in hours worked. In the month, hours worked per person fell –0.8% driven mostly by a –2.3% fall in hours worked per part-time employee. Hours worked per full-time employee fell –0.2%. Nevertheless, in August the overall weakness was less concentrated in hours worked than it was back in April as hours worked per person is still 2.9% higher than it was in April (we note that hours worked per person recovered a touch in May even though employment fell further). Hours worked per full-time employee is up 1.9% since April while hours worked per part-time employee is up 15.7% again highlighting that the hit from Covid, and recovery to date, has been concentrated more in part-time employment than full-time. 
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugEmpHrs.JPG" alt="">
As it did in April the July/August shutdown in Victoria had a larger impact on hours worked than it had on employment. Nevertheless, given the recovery in hours worked through June and July Victorian hours worked are still 0.5% higher than the May low, a touch better than the +0.3% gain for employment. In NSW hours worked lifted 0.7% which is softer than the 1.3% rise in employment. Victorian shutdown did create some uncertainty in NSW but it was expressed more as a reduction in hours worked than a reduction in employment.
For the smaller states hours worked per person continued to recover in August. Hours worked lifted 2.4% in Qld compared to a 0.7% gain in employment, hours lifted 1.8% in SA while employment lifted 1.6% and over in WA, a 2.4% lift in employment generated a 3.8% surge in hours worked. WA stands out with the strongest recovery so far with a 5.8% increase in employment and a 8.5% increase in hours worked from the shutdown lows.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugRecover.JPG" alt="">
The Victorian shutdown again hit participation while a recovery continued elsewhere.
The weakness in Victoria also led to a fall in participation in that state, from 64.5% to 63.9%, which muted the rise seen elsewhere. Nationally participation rose just 0.1ppt to 64.8% (despite the outsized gain in employment) with the labour force lifting 24.5k. This muted rise in the labour force resulted in a significant correction in the unemployment rate with it falling to 6.8% from 7.5%. Back in May the unemployment rate was 7.1%; it was 6.4% in April.
Despite the employment gains in Qld participation in this state fell -0.5% to 63.9% but this was more than offset by a 0.5% gain in NSW to 65.2%, a 1.0% gain in SA to 62.8% and a 0.6% gain in WA to 67.9%. We are looking for a bounce in participation in Victoria and Qld in September but it is more unclear what to expect from the other states.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugStatePart.JPG" alt="">
It is very interesting to note that participation in NSW and WA is almost back to the pre-Covid levels in March, down -0.10ppt om NSW and -0.06ppt in WA. In Victoria the participation rate is still -2.5ppt below its March level while in Qld it is still down -2.0ppt. The recovery in participation in NSW and WA suggest that the recovery has drawn workers back into the workforce and should we see any weakness in the labour markets in those state, there is the potential for correcting weakness in participation. Contrast that with Victoria and Qld where the economic weakness has held participation well below pre-Covid levels. As such, as these economies recover then participation is likely to pick-up preventing a more rapid fall in unemployment.
This suggests that there may be still sufficient flexibility in participation to buffer the unemployment rate from any significant change, both up and down, from moderate changes in level of employment. It will, however, depend on which states the weakness or strength appears. If the strength appears in NSW or WA, then there is less scope for participation to lift thus driving unemployment lower. On the other hand, if further weakness appears in Victoria or Qld then there is less scope for participation to correct lower and thus it is likely to drive unemployment higher.
Underemployment was flat in August.
The underemployment rate was flat a 11.2%, at two decimal places it was a 0.7ppt fall from 11.23% to 11.16%, so close to rounding down to 11.1%. From a record peak of 13.4% in April underemployment has eased back as the number of people working less hours than they normally do improved. In August almost 1,000k employees worked less than their usual hours for economic reasons with around 215k (or 22%) doing no work at all; over 760k worked some hours but fewer than usual. Following a 700k increase between March and April the number working zero hours for economic reasons fell by over 600k between April and July. However, in August the number working zero hours increased by almost 50k (+30%).
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sep_Oct_2020/LFAugUnder.JPG" alt="">
By state underemployment fell 0.9ppt in NSW to 9.8%, lifted 0.8% in Victoria to 13.8%, fell 1.3ppt in Qld to 9.3%, gained 0.4% in SA to 11.4% and fell 1.0% in WA to 9.6%. It is hardly surprising that underemployment rose in Victoria and that it is the state with the highest rate but it is interesting to note the strength in WA and that underemployment there is now lower than it is in NSW while Qld has the lowest rate for a mainland state.  
The flat print on underemployment is a further sign that while August may have been a robust month for employment and unemployment, it was not such a good month for economic activity with hours worked almost flat in the month with a solid rise in the number working zero hours for economic reasons and flat underemployment. If you are looking for signs of weakness it is not the rise of self-employed but rather the lift in those working zero hours for economic reasons.
The August survey confirms a more robust recovery in the labour market than many had expected.
This update has made it much more difficult for the RBA to hit its forecast peak in unemployment of 10% by end 2020. We estimate that to achieve that forecast rise in unemployment, employment would have to collapse between -400k to -500k by December; of course it will be dependent on the size of the fall in participation as employment contracts) This would be a very extreme situation and suggests an aggressive unwinding of support packages, such as JobKeeper, a massive rise in business closures and significant job shedding. The rise in the number working zero hours is a sign that things might not be a robust as a 6.8% unemployment rate suggest and we do note that that conditions and payments for JobKeeper have been modified from end September. However, the programme has been extended to March 2021 and we do expect to see further support should conditions deteriorate further, just as we have seen Victoria as conditions deteriorated there. We are not expecting the Government to go 'cold turkey' on JobKeeper and suddenly cut the programme.
Westpac is retaining our current forecast peak in unemployment this year of 7.8% in December which implies a loss of total employment of around 130k to 170k. Without a doubt, the recovery in the rest of the country has been more robust (so far) than we thought while the hit to the Victorian labour market was not as bad as expected. However, with the rolling off or adjustment of many of support packages (in particular JobKeeper) between now and the end of the year there is clear meaningful risk of a further decline in employment and a rise in unemployment.
JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Gig workers boosted employment in August: Justin Smirk

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Along with home delivery of groceries, pharmaceuticals and alcohol, demand for food delivery is booming.
Services such as Uber Eats and Deliveroo have become essential to cafes and restaurants that can now only sell takeaway food.
It is good news for the likes of Uber, whose stock price has risen since it announced a ten-fold increase in the number of restaurants signing themselves up to <a href="https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-eats-growth-coronavirus-delivery-140101683" target="_blank">Uber Eats</a>.
But it’s a situation that has provoked serious questions. Not only about whether delivery services are safe, but <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/godforbid/the-covid-19-conundrum/12095750" target="_blank">whether it’s ethical to use them</a>.
Digital platforms like Uber Eats and Menulog are not, after all, ideal employers. In fact, they don’t regard themselves as employers at all, merely facilitators of work by “independent contractors”.
Food delivery drivers and riders often work for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/20/food-delivery-bike-couriers-in-australia-being-underpaid-by-up-to-322-a-week" target="_blank">less than the minimum wage</a>, and have no employee rights such as sick leave.
Now we are collectively relying on them to provide an essential service during social distancing, we need to ask what, as a society, we owe these workers in return.
<h2>Vulnerable to exploitation</h2>
We’re interested in how this economic crisis affects food delivery drivers and riders due to our research into the experience of migrant gig workers.
Our research has found migrants are already “socially distanced”, without deep networks of family or friends. They are vulnerable to exploitation and discrimination.
Most food delivery work is done by migrants, through third-party digital platforms like Uber Eats and Menulog. The platforms treat drivers and riders as independent contractors, not employees with the protections and rights of employees.
A 2019 survey <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/revealing-the-true-size-of-australias-gig-workforce/" target="_blank">commissioned by the Victorian government</a> suggested about 7% of the workforce used digital platforms to get gig work, the most common being Airtasker (35%), Uber (23%), Freelancer (12%), Uber Eats (11%) and Deliveroo (8%).
Previous research suggests <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-way-they-manipulate-people-is-really-saddening-study-shows-the-trade-offs-in-gig-work-79042" target="_blank">many choose gig work</a> simply because it is better than other forms of low-paid work.
Now food delivery workers face pressure from those displaced from such jobs in hospitality or retail. Complicating the situation is the lack of clarity about whether those on temporary work visas are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/22/what-australias-189bn-coronavirus-economic-rescue-package-means-for-you" target="_blank">eligible for income support</a> announced for other workers.
Platforms don’t owe gig workers a minimum wage so can sign up as many “independent contractors” as they like. This improves the service for customers, and increases profit for the platform, but means individual deliverers make less money.
<h2>Increased health risks</h2>
Many delivery services are <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/coronavirus-australia-uber-eats-deliveroo-drive-thru_au_5e71a846c5b63c3b6486e11a" target="_blank">implementing contactless delivery</a> procedures. But the lack of defined employer responsibility in the platform economy means patchy attention to the extra physical and mental health risks gig workers now face.
Unions and others have urged delivery platforms <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-03-06/gig-economy-workers-uber-deliveroo-ola-coronavirus-outbreak/12022072" target="_blank">to provide protective equipment</a> such as gloves, face masks and sanitisers. Responses from platforms have been limited.
This was Uber Eats’ response on March 17, by its regional general manager for the Asia Pacific, <a href="https://www.uber.com/en-AU/newsroom/covid19aus/" target="_blank">Jodie Auster</a>:
Our plan to address challenges born by COVID-19 includes making A$5 million in funding available for independent restaurants across Australia and New Zealand. The multi-million dollar fund will allow restaurants to deploy promotions to attract customers and will help restaurants time promotions to suit their individual business needs.
What Auster didn’t mention was a plan to issue safety gear, though she did note the company had started a campaign “reminding Uber Eats users that they can request deliveries be left on their doorsteps”.
Not surprisingly, delivery workers are scared <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/union-seeking-protections-for-delivery-drivers/12094366" target="_blank">they will catch the coronavirus</a>.
Uber says it will financially assist drivers and riders “diagnosed with COVID-19 or placed in quarantine by a public health authority” for a period of <a href="https://www.uber.com/en-AU/newsroom/covid19aus/" target="_blank">up to 14 days</a>.
But what if a worker with viral symptoms wants to self-isolate as a precaution? There’s no sick leave or workers compensation, and they risk “deactivation” if work isn’t accepted.
<h2>Legal protection</h2>
Social distancing measures mean the delivery economy and the health of the general population are now intimately linked.
To secure and safeguard this now essential service, it is time the law ensured gig workers have the same legal rights and protections as other employees.
We need the delivery drivers coming to our doors to be healthy. That health depends on their safety as well as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/food-ordering-safe-ethical-coronavirus-with-seamless-uber-eats-should-i-get-takeaway" target="_blank">economic and social inclusion</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/134406/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tyler-riordan-1002045" target="_blank">Tyler Riordan</a>, PhD Candidate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gerhard-hoffstaedter-9125" target="_blank">Gerhard Hoffstaedter</a>, Associate professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-robinson-958290" target="_blank">Richard Robinson</a>, Research Fellow/Hospitality Management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/delivery-workers-are-now-essential-they-deserve-the-rights-of-other-employees-134406" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Delivery workers are now essential, they deserve the same rights

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Gig platforms don’t have a large share of the labour market yet.
A common narrative nowadays is that standard, secure full-time work is a thing of the past thanks to increasing casual jobs, labour hire, temping and non-standard work contracts that side-step collective bargaining. The ACTU says insecure work has grown to “<a href="https://www.actu.org.au/media/349417/lives_on_hold.pdf" target="_blank">crisis levels</a>”. A <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Education_and_Employment/AvoidanceofFairWork" target="_blank">Senate inquiry rehashed</a> the same themes last year. Much of the academic literature is also <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10301763.2018.1427424?journalCode=rlab20" target="_blank">toeing this line</a>.
Yet there is very little evidence that jobs are any less secure than they were decades ago. This is not to deny that some people are leading very precarious lives. <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/company-fined-record-660000-for-paying-refugee-worker-as-little-as-350-an-hour-20170802-gxnrsf" target="_blank">Recent stories</a> of wage theft and exploitation, particularly among migrant workers, are truly disgraceful.
But, on the whole, Australian workers are not on some inexorable march toward an uncertain and perilous future of work.
It is true that the labour market has changed. The types of jobs we do and the industries we do them in are very different today than in the ’70s. There’s a <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-how-part-time-work-is-growing-more-slowly-but-more-men-are-doing-it-79352" target="_blank">lot more part-time work</a>. There’s a lot <a href="https://theconversation.com/women-are-less-likely-to-be-replaced-by-robots-and-might-even-benefit-from-automation-96728" target="_blank">more women</a> in the workforce. The balance of industrial power has shifted in favour of employers.
These changes partly reflect the restructuring of the economy away from some industries (such as manufacturing) and toward those that offer more part-time and casual work (retail, food, accommodation services and the like). But it is also the result of decades of concerted industrial relations reform, along with sweeping changes in individual work preferences.
There is no widely accepted definition of precarious employment. After all, every job is precarious to some extent. Nevertheless there are some common proxies for this slippery concept.
The rise of casual employment was <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10301763.1998.10669175" target="_blank">an early favourite</a> and is still very relevant. More <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-8462.12085" target="_blank">recent research</a> has broadened the scope to include job tenure and involuntary job-loss rates. <a href="https://theconversation.com/workers-are-actually-feeling-less-insecure-in-their-jobs-81836" target="_blank">Others</a> emphasise workers’ own perceptions of job security. There has also been interest in the rate of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-4932.12337" target="_blank">self-employment</a>, the number of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://ideas.repec.org/a/fli/journl/35019" target="_blank">multiple job holders</a> and the share of workers handled by <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/supporting/labour-hire" target="_blank">labour hire firms</a>.
Four of these measures cut to the heart of precarity:
<ol>
<li>
casual employment is a measure of precarious contracts
</li>
<li>
job churn reveals the extent to which employers are hiring and firing with impunity
</li>
<li>
self-employment captures all of the gig economy workers who are supposedly flooding the labour market
</li>
<li>
multiple job holders could be so precariously attached to the labour market that they’re unable to make ends meet with a single job.
</li>
</ol>
On their own, each of these measures is a good but imperfect proxy for precarity. Taken together, however, they largely speak with one compelling voice.
Casualisation
The logic of the casual job is to give employers the flexibility to dial their staffing levels up and down as demand fluctuates. Casual workers don’t get annual and sick leave, and generally aren’t protected against dismissal.
Basically, a casual contract lets an employer hire and fire with impunity.
That sounds pretty precarious. You would expect that a labour market of increasing precarity would exhibit a strong trend toward casualisation. In fact, what we have had is strong growth in casual employment during the last two decades of the 20th century and then nothing.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UEcUf/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
Now there is no doubt that casual work is usually lower-quality work. On the whole, casual workers <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0018726716686666" target="_blank">get paid less, chase more hours</a> and are a little <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/CasualEmployeesAustralia" target="_blank">less satisfied</a> than their permanently employed peers.
But that is not evidence that casual employment is becoming ubiquitous.
Churn
If employers really were hiring and firing with abandon we should see more people staying in jobs for briefer periods. But we’re not.
In fact, as we can see in the chart below, there has not been a huge spike in workers forced out of their jobs involuntarily. And the proportion that have been in their jobs for 12 months is also staying on trend.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QysPX/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Bni1x/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
Self-employment
This category should be the smoking gun of a more precarious workforce. It captures anyone who works for themselves, whether in a formally constituted company or not. I have deliberately excluded in this measure those who employ others, so we’re really looking at the cohort of people who work for themselves and by themselves on commercial contract terms.
Self-employment captures all non-employees, such as Uber drivers and Foodora riders, as well as those who were “pushed out” of employment and onto contract.
And yet, as you can see in the following chart, these people are getting harder to find:
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yt2iA/2/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
The downward trend may seem surprising given one supposed key driver of precarity is the digitalised “gig economy”. <a href="https://http-download.intuit.com/http.intuit/CMO/intuit/futureofsmallbusiness/intuit_2020_report.pdf" target="_blank">One projection</a> was that 40% of the US workforce would be freelancers, contractors or temporary workers by 2020.
But the reality is that, for all their visibility and controversy, gig economy platforms are not yet commanding a significant share of the labour market.
Multiple job holders
That a higher share of workers are holding down multiple jobs fits with the notion that the economy is becoming “gigified”, with workers increasingly forced to move from job to job to make ends meet.
Yet the data provide little evidence that this is a material shift in the structure of the labour market.
In 1997, the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6216.0Aug%201997?OpenDocument" target="_blank">ABS found</a> the proportion of employed persons holding multiple jobs increased from 3.7% in August 1987 to 5.2% a decade later. While the ABS has not published a long-term series since this report, it provided me a custom dataset that shows the current rate is not much higher, at about 5.5%.
The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6150.0.55.001July%202017?OpenDocument" target="_blank">ABS introduced</a> a similar but not identical measure last year – the proportion of jobs in the economy that are “secondary jobs”. This remained stable between 2010-11 and 2015-16, at around 5.6%.
The takeaway
When I started researching the rise of the gig economy and the future of work I was sure that Australia’s labour market was taking a precarious turn. After all, Uber drivers, Deliveroo riders and Airtaskers seem to be everywhere.
But the weight of evidence clearly suggests that, while the last two decades of the 20th century produced a significant rise in non-standard work, the first two decades of the 21st have seen remarkably little change.
There is much to dislike about the quality and quantity of jobs the economy is delivering. But to make this a conversation about precarity is to chase a red herring.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99739/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">This fruitless pursuit is simply distracting researchers and policymakers from far more pressing questions – like how to create a globally competitive workforce fit for the 21st century.
Robert Sobyra is a PhD Candidate at The University of Queensland
This article was originally published on The Conversation.
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