One of Brisbane's last major riverfront redevelopment opportunities has taken a significant step forward, with Lendlease selected as the Queensland Government's preferred development partner for the former Visy site in South Brisbane.

The seven-hectare industrial site, positioned between South Bank and West End and 1.3 kilometres from the Brisbane CBD, will be transformed into a mixed-use precinct expected to deliver more than 4,000 new homes alongside extensive public open space and riverfront parkland.

The project is one of the largest urban renewal opportunities currently planned in Brisbane and is expected to play a key role in accommodating the city's growing population ahead of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Plans for the precinct include a network of riverfront promenades and boardwalks, new public plazas, parkland, amphitheatre-style gathering spaces and shared pedestrian and cycling links designed to reconnect the long-isolated site with the Brisbane River.

The Queensland Government is targeting delivery of the first homes and key public spaces before the 2032 Games, allowing the precinct to begin contributing new housing and public amenity well before the broader masterplan is complete.

The redevelopment is also expected to support more than 3,000 jobs across planning, construction and ongoing operations.

For Lendlease, the appointment adds another major urban regeneration project to its Queensland portfolio. The developer has operated in the state for more than 70 years and has delivered a number of large-scale mixed-use precincts in partnership with government.

Lendlease Development CEO Claire Johnston said the project represented one of Brisbane's most significant redevelopment opportunities.

"The transformation of the former Visy site represents a rare opportunity to reimagine one of Brisbane's most significant riverfront locations, deliver thousands of much-needed homes, and create long-term legacy," Johnston said.

"In partnership with the Queensland Government, we have the opportunity to create a new riverside destination that will help shape Brisbane's growth and how people experience the city for decades to come.

"This is exactly the type of large-scale, city-shaping development that will provide lasting benefits for Queensland, bringing together housing, jobs and world-class public spaces."

Deputy Premier and Minister for State Development, Infrastructure and Planning Jarrod Bleijie said the riverfront transformation would deliver a thriving new community precinct.

“The Crisafulli Government is delivering this golden opportunity to unlock a riverfront jewel for all Queenslanders,” Deputy Premier Bleijie said.

“This is a once-in-a-generation moment to reshape a significant slice of Brisbane and deliver lasting benefits – thousands of new homes, and public spaces for all Queenslanders to enjoy well beyond the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games – unlike Labor’s plan which would have delivered zero benefits and zero new homes.

“Queensland is well and truly open for business and through partnership with the private sector, we are accelerating delivery while ensuring strong housing, community and economic outcomes."

Early works on the precinct are expected to commence in April 2027.

Joel Robinson

Lendlease selected to deliver transformative South Brisbane riverfront precinct

Eddy Haddad's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/level-33">Level 33</a> is levelling up its approved Wollongong development, as the coastal city south of Sydney continues to prove popular in the high-density development space.

Level 33, a longtime developer in the Wollongong area, has gone through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority to upsize its approved two-tower development on the corner of Crown Street and Gladstone Avenue, just 100 metres from Wollongong Station.

The developer currently has approval for 252 apartments across two buildings rising to 19 storeys. It is now seeking approval for 33 and 38-storey towers that would deliver 467 apartments, including 67 affordable homes.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bka-architecture">BKA Architecture</a>, the development would comprise apartments above a three-level podium with around 1,100 sqm of retail space, along with basement parking for 448 vehicles.

According to the Urban Design Report by BKA, the proposal has the capacity to "reinforce the precinct's identity by strengthening links between health, education, and transport services, while also contributing to Wollongong's ongoing evolution as a key regional centre."

Wollongong is somewhat in vogue. Between Level 33 and Urban Property Group, the two developers have several thousand apartments planned across the city.

Level 33 is currently delivering Easterly Wollongong, one of its most boutique projects to date with just 21 high-end apartments, as well as Atchison &amp; Kenny, a 329-apartment development due for completion later this year.

The developer plans to redevelop the 13,088 sqm WIN Grand megasite into <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crown-square-216-238-keira-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Crown Square</a>, a new $500 million precinct with nearly 600 apartments. It also has more than 900 apartments planned for the former Bunnings Warehouse site at the intersection of Gipps and Flinders streets.

Urban Property Group is also playing a major role in the city's transformation. Its five-tower Keira Place precinct will deliver more than 800 homes, and it has recently lodged plans for a further 300 apartments near Wollongong Station.

First look: Level 33 upsizes Wollongong apartment towers

Just a week after filing plans for the final stage of its major Keira Place masterplan, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has unveiled another significant housing proposal in Wollongong, this time targeting a prominent site opposite North Wollongong Station.

The developer has lodged a State Significant Development Application for a 38-storey mixed-use tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-4a-flinders-street-north-wollongong-nsw-2500">4-4A Flinders Street</a>, around one kilometre north of the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place precinct</a> currently taking shape on the edge of the CBD.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group plans 38-storey North Wollongong tower as Keira Place expansion gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b6428f1-6405-4038-8476-897de440e90d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/flinders%20podium.png?VersionId=QLqEvK0OuCEwRC47oHNftrw2B1YqaHF8" />

Designed by Studio.SC, the proposal comprises a 38-storey mixed-use development containing 303 apartments, including 45 affordable housing units, alongside 174 co-living residences. The scheme also includes ground-floor retail space, extensive landscaping and public domain improvements.

Studio.SC noted in the proposal it "outlines a vision for a landmark transit-oriented mixed-use development centred around North Wollongong Station, designed to support the city’s future growth while responding to the NSW Government’s housing and planning reforms."

The architecture firm said the proposal responds to the opportunities and constraints shaping future growth within the 400-metre catchment of the station and represents "a coordinated and future-focused approach to urban intensification, contributing to the long-term evolution of North Wollongong as a connected, walkable and high-density station precinct."

The site occupies a strategic corner bounded by Flinders Street, Station Street, Stafford Street and the Princes Highway, directly opposite North Wollongong Station.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group plans 38-storey North Wollongong tower as Keira Place expansion gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7863adad-1f71-4022-b850-f44b252738fd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/flinders%20podium%20a.png?VersionId=WsU7av0g8_8R2tGHWxgHeFSlhu7yeY1V" />

The proposal follows Urban Property Group's recent submission for the second and final stage of Keira Place, which would deliver a further three buildings comprising 657 homes opposite Beaton Park. It builds on the first stage, which features 150 apartments across two towers and recently commenced construction.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said breaking ground on the first stage marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/urban-property-group-unveils-trio-of-towers-for-next-stage-of-new-wollongong-precinct-keira-place">Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place</a>

First look: Urban Property Group plans next major Wollongong tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/arada">Arada</a> has wasted little time expanding its ambitions in Campsie, lodging plans for a second major project in the rapidly transforming town centre just months after unveiling its three-tower One Campsie proposal on Beamish Street.

The UAE-backed developer has now taken aim at one of the suburb’s most strategically positioned sites, filing a State Significant Development Application for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/10-north-parade-campsie-nsw-2194">33-storey mixed-use tower</a> at 10 London Street and 43 North Parade, directly opposite the future Campsie Metro Station. The proposal is currently on public exhibition and represents another significant vote of confidence in Campsie's emergence as one of Sydney’s key transit-oriented growth centres.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the development would deliver 156 apartments above a podium containing retail and commercial space, creating a new residential and commercial gateway to the town centre. The scheme also includes a four-level above-ground parking podium and a dedicated residential amenity floor featuring wellness and recreation facilities. At least 10 per cent of the apartments would be allocated as affordable housing for a period of 10 years.

The proposal occupies a 1,631 sqm site bounded by London Street, North Parade and Dispensary Lane, immediately adjoining the future Metro station precinct and just metres from Beamish Street’s retail and dining strip. According to the Urban Design Report, the project seeks to deliver "a great place that prioritises human-scaled experience and provides spatial improvements to the area."

<img alt="First look: Arada doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="175a8324-015b-4856-abe3-ce6f23199fa7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium%20campsie.png?VersionId=742UGwXFhFBX4GEl6wX4PYIWREAgn6il" />

Woods Bagot describes the tower as a key marker within Campsie's next phase of growth.

"Located directly opposite the new Campsie Metro Station on North Parade, 10 London Street is a thoughtfully composed 33-storey mixed-use tower that contributes to the ongoing transformation of the town centre," the Architectural Design Report states. The report says the project is intended to provide "high-quality homes within a vibrant, connected urban environment, while helping define Campsie's future skyline."

A strong emphasis has been placed on the public realm. The ground floor incorporates over 500 sqm of retail space and active frontages along both London Street and North Parade, while the podium is wrapped by extensive landscaped planting intended to soften the building's scale and strengthen the pedestrian experience. The development would also widen surrounding footpaths and improve connections between the Metro station and the broader town centre.

Above the podium, residents would have access to more than 1,400 sqm of communal amenities, including a pool, gym and landscaped recreation spaces. A distinctive green-wall treatment extending across four podium levels forms a major architectural feature, helping differentiate the project within the emerging high-density precinct.

The tower's design is closely tied to the broader Campsie Town Centre Master Plan and the arrival of Sydney Metro. The Urban Design Report notes the proposal "directly supports the Campsie Town Centre Master Plan by delivering new homes in a location explicitly identified for growth, improved accessibility, and high-quality urban renewal." It adds that the project contributes to the master plan's vision for a strengthened town centre supported by thousands of new homes around the future Metro station.

<img alt="First look: Arada doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bfd17654-253e-489a-bade-6278d63db412" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/base%20campsie.png?VersionId=3roJPMQGs36dazpkhvpvbDDP73Ld.Ica" />

The application follows Arada's recently lodged One Campsie project at 124–142 Beamish Street and 16–18 Ninth Avenue, where the developer is seeking approval for 346 apartments across three towers rising 24, 32 and 39 storeys. Together, the two proposals would cement Arada as one of the most influential developers shaping Campsie's future urban form.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-arada-files-for-trio-of-apartment-towers-in-campsie-town-centre">First Look: Arada files for trio of apartment towers in Campsie town centre</a>

Arada entered the Australian market in 2024 and has rapidly assembled a significant development pipeline across Sydney. Alongside its Campsie holdings, the developer is soon to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/wattle-green-2-fishburn-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Wattle Green</a> in Castle Hill, and has expanded its local operations following its acquisition of construction firm Roberts &amp; Co.

Located around 14 kilometres south-west of the Sydney CBD, the site sits at the centre of one of Sydney's fastest-changing middle-ring precincts. The Metro conversion of Campsie Station, combined with Canterbury-Bankstown Council's master planning framework, is driving significant residential intensification around Beamish Street and North Parade, with thousands of new homes expected over coming decades.

First look: Arada doubles down in Campsie with 33-storey Metro-front tower plans

For the first time in a long time, Australia's inflation story is starting to look more like a landing than a fight.

The latest Consumer Price Index figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual inflation eased to four per cent in May, down from 4.2 per cent in April. On the surface, that might not seem like a major move. Inflation remains above the Reserve Bank's target range and some categories continue to record stubborn price growth.

But the significance of this result lies less in where inflation sits today and more in what it means for where interest rates are likely heading next.

The biggest takeaway is that inflation continues to move in the right direction.

Markets had been bracing for another sticky result after a period where progress appeared to stall. Instead, headline inflation came in softer than expected, helped by falling fuel prices and easing transport costs. Annual transport inflation halved from 6.6 per cent in April to 3.3 per cent in May, while automotive fuel prices fell 11.9 per cent during the month following lower oil prices and the impact of reduced fuel excise measures.

While petrol prices don't solve Australia's affordability challenges, they are one of the most visible and immediate costs for consumers. Falling fuel costs feed through the economy quickly, helping ease pressure on household budgets and business operating expenses.

The ABS data also showed headline inflation is now sitting at its lowest annual level in several months, reinforcing the broader trend that price growth is gradually moderating.

That trend is important because it aligns with what many economists and lenders have been saying for the last month.

Prior to this week's inflation data, ANZ, NAB and Commonwealth Bank had all shifted their forecasts, now believing the Reserve Bank had likely reached the peak of the interest rate cycle. Following the May inflation release, ANZ reaffirmed that view.

In its latest economic update, ANZ said it expects quarterly trimmed mean inflation to come in at 3.7 per cent for the June quarter, slightly below the Reserve Bank's forecast of 3.8 per cent. Importantly, the bank said that outcome, when combined with slowing economic activity, "supports our view that the cash rate has peaked".

The Reserve Bank has spent the better part of three years attempting to bring inflation under control through higher interest rates. If Australia's major banks are correct and rates have now peaked, the conversation shifts from how much higher rates could go to when they might begin coming down.

Westpac's caution comes from underlying inflation. The trimmed mean, the measure most closely watched by the Reserve Bank, increased from 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent annually. Housing inflation remains elevated at 6.5 per cent, reflecting ongoing increases in rents, electricity costs and new dwelling construction.

Electricity prices remain particularly problematic, rising 21.1 per cent over the past year following the removal of government rebates.

Housing construction costs are also showing signs of renewed pressure. ANZ noted new dwelling costs rose 0.9 per cent in May and are now running at an annualised pace of 8.6 per cent over the past three months. Builders continue to face higher labour, fuel and material costs, a reminder that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared.

Housing affordability has deteriorated largely because of higher interest rates rather than higher property prices alone. Even modest reductions in mortgage rates would improve borrowing capacity, increase buyer confidence and reduce repayment pressure on existing homeowners.

While August is far from a certainty, the latest inflation result has strengthened the view that the next move in rates is more likely to be down than up. For borrowers, buyers and the development sector, that alone represents a significant shift from the conversation that dominated much of the past two years.

The inflation result the property market was waiting for

Economic Stimulus

<html><body>Despite spending more than $320 billion in response to COVID-19, experts say even more money will be needed from the government, according to the latest Finder survey. Results from the <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™</a> this week, show that experts and economists are unconvinced that the federal government’s stimulus packages will be sufficient to see the country through to the end of the year. Three-quarters (73%, 16) of respondents said they expect another stimulus package will be needed.  A similar number (75%, 15) who weighed in on the Australian shares market, expect it to fall further this year. Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said as hard as it is to believe, 16.4% of the country’s nearly $2 trillion GDP may still not be enough. “If the aim is to build a bridge to the other side of this crisis, there might still be some materials that need to be purchased. “On top of trying to close the gap, this pandemic has created, the near-40% loss in value of Australia’s share market may not be over just yet.  “With the full effects of coronavirus still to be understood, expect the high volatility we have seen in the shares market of late to continue for months.” Cash rate to stay put, but QE on cards All 23 economists and experts surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold the cash rate at 0.25% on Tuesday. “Most economists highlighted that the RBA will treat 0.25% as if it is 0% and have no appetite to cut further.  “This leaves only one effective tool in the RBA’s armoury: quantitative easing,” Cooke said. Quantitative easing (QE) is a process where the central bank creates new cash to decrease, or ease, the cost of borrowing. In Finder’s December 2019 survey, nearly half (46%) of experts predicted it was likely we’d see QE in 2020, well before there was any concern of a global pandemic or a lockdown.  RBA governor Phillip Lowe insisted at the time that the federal bank had “no appetite” for QE. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital said history has shown the folly of going to negative interest rates in other countries. "0.25% has long been identified by the RBA as the lower bound.  “There is little benefit to be gained by going to zero or negative based on the experience of Europe and Japan," Oliver said. Economic Sentiment Tracker  Results from Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker, which gauges five key indicators – housing affordability, employment, wage growth, cost of living and household debt – dropped to new lows across most metrics. Cooke said negative sentiment on household debt, wage growth and employment are at 62%, 86% and 100%, respectively. “The sentiment on employment is our first-ever 100% negative response on any economic metric. The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a sledgehammer to the economy, and there is no end in sight,” he said <img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/EkKquNOhes7Tm1rEIH4TFfqG7gKfRn233LzWKxxaIRJXA-ImJe6d6KF7EGwabJCLcn9OQG0GrB6ASTYvrYvnrKH7SF_TFwrgf2jpizHNlXOWHmWnd8FAExFiYndLN7H4_8L6Hjao" width="602" height="387" data-imagetype="External"> Cooke said there was one result that portends good news for homebuyers. “The social gathering restrictions have had a large positive effect on housing affordability. “With estate agents obliged to take viewings by appointment only, and auctions forced online, downward pressure on the housing market is inevitable.  “With both fixed and variable rates at record lows, anyone who has a deposit saved up right now could be in a very powerful position.” The rise in positivity around housing affordability – at its highest level since last June – has pulled the average of positivity across all five metrics higher than last month. “Before the pandemic hit, the worry was that housing prices were continuing to rise even as wages, household debt and cost of living didn’t improve.  “Now, after a global business disruption unrivalled in recent history, the cost of housing might just come back into sight for some Aussies looking to buy,” Cooke said. <img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/QYdBAIcGt_SVYh6Bc-ixcBeeNpaIlPnjBzGbuvmBOPXlXRoqJhZtwY_hbG5PBkmVpSky4kpLBbnJEbAqPxSadD0IAD8NxBxouhp8y2nKXur0bWsqP0MeOfsyrhSGxmARElDpIcEC" width="602" height="399" data-imagetype="External"> <img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Nn1XHJFGWvNg2nZlmyxjukWBdAKyluQlFllWabQWb53kZ2ib9gOy0ZQEkRVYuil9Rlxr-bc6WCU2Um_hRp722YTcHoEBzec_PXZ61XbJqfH5H9zGd6PM8QWlJBOzRMsCsEkNizs7" width="602" height="404" data-imagetype="External"></body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Experts forecast more economic stimulus and ASX falls: Finder.com.au

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EXPERT OBSERVERS
The Government’s Fiscal Stimulus Package is a bold initiative to bolster the Australian economy’s defences against the damage likely to be wrought by COVID–19.
It is imaginative and works through boosting investment while providing real incentives to protect jobs.
Earlier in the week Westpac forecast that without any Stimulus Package the economy would experience a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of negative growth (in March and June). Although, with growth expected to recover strongly in the second half of 2020 the unemployment rate was unlikely to exceed 6%
Our analysis of the Package suggests that the initiatives are only likely to offset the contraction in the June quarter that we had estimated earlier in the week rather than lift growth into positive territory.
However, the current domestic and global environment has deteriorated more rapidly than we had expected. The downside risks to our central case forecast that we envisaged earlier in the week are now materialising.
For us, despite the Government’s bold efforts the June quarter is still likely to show negative growth and Australia will experience a technical recession.
<div>
Bill Evans is chief economist for Westpac.
Andrew Hanlan is a senior economist at Westpac.
This article was <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42540/14186/" target="_blank">first published on WestpacIQ</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Technical recession is still likely despite stimulus package: Westpac

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
With its official cash rate now expected to fall below 1% to a new extraordinarily low close to zero, all sorts of people are saying that the Reserve Bank is in danger of “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-economy-rba-analysis/australias-shrinking-monetary-policy-arsenal-tests-rbas-orthodoxy-idUSKCN1S90CL" target="_blank">running out of ammunition</a>”. Ammunition might be needed if, as during the last financial crisis, it needs to cut rates by several percentage points.
This view assumes that when the cash rate hits zero there is nothing more the Reserve Bank can do.
The view is not only wrong, it is also dangerous, because if taken seriously it would mean that all of the next rounds of stimulus would have to be come from fiscal (spending and tax) policy, even though fiscal policy is probably ineffective long-term, its effects being <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/publication/why-fiscal-multiplier-roughly-zero-0" target="_blank">neutralised by a floating exchange rate</a>.
The experience of the United States shows that Australia’s Reserve Bank could quite easily take measures that would have the same effect as cutting its cash rate a further 2.5 percentage points – that is: 2.5 percentage points below zero.
<hr>
Reserve Bank cash rate since 1990
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277841/original/file-20190604-69059-1j2m4r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277841/original/file-20190604-69059-1j2m4r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-15" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia</a>
In a report <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/lessons-from-quantitative-easing-in-the-united-states-a-guide-for-australian-policymakers" target="_blank">released on Tuesday</a> by the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, I document the successes and failures of the US approach to so-called “quantitative easing” (QE) between 2009 and 2014.
It demonstrates that it is always possible to change the instrument of monetary policy from changes in the official interest rate to changes in other interest rates by buying and holding other financial instruments such as long-term government and corporate bonds.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/279752/original/file-20190617-118539-fe387p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Australia can learn form US mistakes. <a class="source" href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/lessons-from-quantitative-easing-in-the-united-states-a-guide-for-australian-policymakers" target="_blank">University of Sydney United States Studies Centre</a>
The more aggressively the Reserve Bank buys those bonds from private sector owners, the lower the long-term interest rates that are needed to place bonds and the more former owners whose hands are filled with cash that they have to make use of.
In the US the Federal Reserve also used “<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/timeline-forward-guidance-about-the-federal-funds-rate.htm" target="_blank">forward guidance</a>” about the likely future path of the US Federal funds rate to convince markets the rate would be kept low for an extended period.
It is unclear which mechanism was the most powerful, or whether the Fed even needed to buy bonds in order to make forward guidance work. However in a stressed economic environment, it is worth trying both.
As it comes to be believed that interest rates will stay low for an extended period, the exchange rate will fall, making it easier for Australian corporates to borrow from overseas and to export and compete with imports.
The consensus of the academic literature is that QE cut long-term interest rates by around one percentage point and had economic effects equivalent to cutting the US Federal fund rate by <a href="https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/lessons-from-quantitative-easing-in-the-united-states-a-guide-for-australian-policymakers" target="_blank">a further 2.5 percentage points</a> after it approached zero.
QE need not have limits…
Based on US estimates, Australia’s Reserve Bank would need to purchase assets equal to around 1.5% of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product to achieve the equivalent of a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the official cash rate. That’s around A$30 billion.
With over A$780 billion in long-term government (Commonwealth and state) securities on issue, there’s enough to accommodate a very large program of Reserve Bank buying, and the bank could also follow the example of the Fed and expand the scope of purchases to include non-government securities, including residential mortgage-backed securities.
It could also learn from US mistakes. The Fed was slow to cut its official interest rate to near zero and slow to embark on QE in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Its first attempt was limited in size and duration. Its success in using QE to stimulate the economy should be viewed as the lower bound of what’s possible.
…even if it becomes less effective as it grows
It often <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-16/interest-rates-are-going-down-but-how-low-can-they-go/11210682" target="_blank">suggested</a> (although it is <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2017/borio-hofmann" target="_blank">by no means certain</a>) that monetary policy becomes less effective when interest rates get very low, but this isn’t necessarily an argument to use monetary policy less. It could just as easily be an argument to use it more.
Because there is no in-principle limit to how much QE a central bank can do, it is always possible to do more and succeed in lifting inflation rate and spending.
Fiscal policy may well be even less effective. To the extent that it succeeds, it is likely to push up the Australian dollar, making Australian businesses less competitive.
US economist <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/publication/why-fiscal-multiplier-roughly-zero-0" target="_blank">Scott Sumner</a> believes the extra bang for the buck from government spending or tax cuts (known as the multiplier) is close to zero.
Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe this month appealed for <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-06-04" target="_blank">help from the government itself</a>, asking in particular for extra spending on infrastructure and measures to raise productivity growth.
He is correct in identifying the contribution other policies can make to driving economic growth. No one seriously thinks Reserve Bank monetary policy can or should substitute for productivity growth.
But it is a good, perhaps a very good, substitute for government spending that does not contribute to productivity growth.
Three myths about quantitative easing
In the paper I address several myths about QE. One is that it is “printing money”. It no more prints money than does conventional monetary policy. It pushes money into private sector hands by adjusting interest rates, albeit a different set of rates.
Another myth is that it promotes inequality by helping the rich to get richer.
It is a widely believed myth. Former Coalition treasurer <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/economy/monetary-policy/murdoch-criticises-central-bank-stimulus-20141017-119n1f" target="_blank">Joe Hockey</a> told the British Institute of Economic Affairs in 2014 that: "Loose monetary policy actually helps the rich to get richer. Why? Because we’ve seen rising asset values. Wealthier people hold the assets."
But it widens inequality no more than conventional monetary policy, and may not widen it at all if it is successful in maintaining sustainable economic growth.
A third myth is that it leads to excessive inflation or socialism.
In the US it has in fact been associated with some of the lowest inflation since the second world war. These days central banks are more likely to err on the side of creating too little inflation than too much.
Some have argued that QE in the US is to blame for the rise of left-wing populists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and “<a href="https://realconservativesunite.com/2019/03/07/ben-bernanke-the-father-of-extreme-us-socialism/" target="_blank">millennial socialism</a>”. But it is probably truer to say that their grievances grew out of too tight rather than too lose monetary policy.
QE has been road tested. We’ve little to fear from it, just as we have had little to fear from conventional monetary policy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118843/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Stephen Kirchner, Program Director, Trade and Investment, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/below-zero-is-reverse-how-the-reserve-bank-would-make-quantitative-easing-work-118843" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How the Reserve Bank would make quantitative easing work

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Rate cut to boost employment and economic growth: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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The former RBA governor Bernie Fraser has warned that more monetary policy stimulus won't be able to boost growth or reinvigorate inflation following last week's surprise interest rate cut.
Fraser said he was not "in the slightest" bit concerned about letting inflation undershoot the range for a lengthy period of time, according to the Australian Financial Review.
This contradicts the central bank's quick action against signs of deflation in the March quarter.
Considered the architect of the Reserve Bank's 2 to 3 percent inflation target, Fraser said the economic focus should be moved to government-led stimulus rather than more interest rate cuts.
"I don't see myself as fiddling with monetary policy to deal with the deflation problem," he told The Australian Financial Review. 
"I don't see monetary policy as solving the problem with zero, or practically zero, interest rates or quantitative easing. It can't get things moving."
The potential for more official rate cuts and low inflation has prompted some economists to suggest that the Reserve Bank is nearing the limits of its powers. They are at risk of sliding into the same zero-rate constraints that have left European and Japanese central banks unable to revive their economies.
Despite suggesting he had a "certain fondness" for the Reserve Bank's inflation target, he told the Australian Financial Review he "wouldn't want people to be tempted to start adjusting that."
Fraser spoke out following the Reserve Banks issue of the weakest inflation outlook since the target range was introduced by himself in the early 1990s.
Officials are predicting that price increases would remain below two percent through to 2018, despite at least one more rate cut.
Speculation suggests the Reserve Bank will seek to reverse slowing inflation by cutting the cash rate again in October.
Currency traders predict the extra cut will push the dollar as low as US67¢ from US73.77¢
Fraser said the burden of spurring economic demand should urgently fall on fiscal policy and infrastructure spending by government.
"The Reserve Bank should be talking to the government and saying there is not much more we can do on monetary policy, that this is a classic situation for being more active on fiscal policy.
"Australia shouldn't worry too much about debt and deficit at this stage," he said.
"We need some growth."
He also criticised the board for creating confusion around the reasons for last week's sudden rate cut.
"I was a bit surprised by the rate cut on budget day because of the ambiguity that such a move is likely to create in the public mind," he said.
"Is it really lower inflation that's provoking the Reserve Bank or concern about the weakness of the economy?
"I wouldn't myself have been concerned about a short period of under 2 per cent inflation – not in the slightest."
He said the lack of confidence in the Reserve Bank is the bigger concern based on the strength of the economy.
"[It] suggests to me that they too have a few concerns about the outlook for activity."
Fraser expects inflation will increase thanks to an increase in demand caused by the lower exchange rate with the currency falling by more than a quarter over recent years
"We've only had one quarter of negative inflation.
"To me that's nothing to be unduly concerned about and the exchange rate is coming down, so that might stimulate some demand, but more directly it will add to inflation."
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