Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Census

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80742/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Vacant housing rates are rising in our major cities. Across Australia on census night, 11.2 percent of housing was recorded as unoccupied – a total of 1,089,165 dwellings. With housing affordability stress also intensifying, the moment for a push on empty property taxes looks to have arrived. 
The 2016 Census showed empty property numbers up by 19% in Melbourne and 15 percent in Sydney over the past five years alone. Considering that thousands of people sleep rough – almost 7,000 on census night in 2011, more than 400 per night in Sydney in 2017 – and that hundreds of thousands face overcrowded homes or unaffordable rents, these seem like cruel and immoral revelations.
Public awareness of unused homes has been growing in Australia and globally. In London, Vancouver and elsewhere – just as in Sydney and Melbourne – the night-time spectacle of dark spaces in newly built “luxury towers” has triggered outrage.
This has struck a chord with the public not only because of its connotations of obscene wealth inequality and waste, but also because of the contended link to foreign ownership.
Early movers on vacancy tax
Against this backdrop, the Victorian state government has felt sufficiently emboldened to legislate an empty homes tax. Federally, the shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, recently backed a standard vacant dwelling tax across all the nation’s major cities. 
Similar measures have come into force in Vancouver and Paris. And Ontario’s provincial government recently granted Toronto new powers to tax empty properties.
Emulating Vancouver, Victoria’s tax is a 1% capital value charge on homes vacant for at least six months in a year. Curiously, though, it applies only in Melbourne’s inner and middle suburbs. And there are exceptions – if the property is a grossly under-used second home you pay only if you’re a foreigner. 
Also, as in Vancouver, tax liability relies on self-reporting, which is seemingly a loophole. This might be less problematic if all owners were required to confirm their properties were occupied for at least six months of the past year. But that would be administratively cumbersome. 
This highlights a broader “practicability challenge” for empty property taxes. For example, how do you define acceptable reasons for a property being empty? 
In principle, such a tax should probably be limited to habitable dwellings. So, if you own a speculative vacancy, what do you do? Remove the kitchen sink to declare it unliveable?
How can we be sure a home is empty?
Lack of reliable data on empty homes is a major problem in Australia. Census figures are useful mainly because they indicate trends over time, but they substantially overstate the true number of long-term vacant habitable properties because they include temporarily empty dwellings (including second homes). 
Using Victorian water records, Prosper Australia estimates about half of Melbourne’s census-recorded vacant properties are long-term “speculative vacancies”. That’s 82,000 homes. 
Applying a similar “conversion factor” to Sydney’s census numbers would indicate around 68,000 speculative vacancies. Australia-wide, the Prosper Australia findings imply around 300,000 speculative vacancies – 3 percent of all housing. That’s equivalent to two years’ house building at current rates.
According to University of Queensland real estate economics expert Cameron Murray, a national tax that entirely eliminated this glut might moderate the price of housing by 1-2%. Therefore, although worthwhile, dealing with this element of our inefficient use of land and property would provide only a small easing of Australia’s broader affordability problem.
Making better use of a scarce resource
Taxing long-term empty properties is consistent with making more efficient use of our housing stock – a scarce resource. A big-picture implication is that tackling Australia’s housing stress shouldn’t be seen as purely about boosting new housing supply – as commonly portrayed by governments. 
It should also be about making more efficient and equitable use of existing housing and housing-designated land.
Penalising empty dwellings is fine if it can be practicably achieved. That’s especially if the revenue is used to enhance the trivial amount of public funding going into building affordable rental housing in most of our states and territories. 
But empty homes represent just a small element of our increasingly inefficient and wasteful use of housing and the increasingly unequal distribution of our national wealth.
One aspect of this is the under-utilisation of occupied housing. Australian Bureau of Statistics survey data show that, across Australia, more than a million homes (mainly owner-occupied) have three or more spare bedrooms. A comparison of the latest statistics (for 2013-14) with those for 2007-08 suggests this body of “grossly under-utilised” properties grew by more than 250,000 in the last six years.
Our tax system does nothing to discourage this increasingly wasteful use of housing. It’s arguably encouraged by the “tax on mobility” constituted by stamp duty and the exemption of the family home from the pension assets test. 
A parallel issue is the speculative land banks owned by developers. The volume of development approvals far exceeds the amount of actual building. In the past year in Sydney, for example, 56,000 development approvals were granted – but only 38,000 homes were built. 
In many cases, getting an approval is just part of land speculation. The owner then hoards the site until “market conditions are right” for on-selling as approved for development at a fat profit.
Properly addressing these issues calls for something much more ambitious than an empty property tax. The federal government should be encouraging all states and territories to follow the ACT’s lead by phasing in a broad-based land tax to replace stamp duty.
Such a tax will provide a stronger financial incentive to make effective use of land and property. The Grattan Institute estimates this switch would also “add up to A$9 billion annually to gross domestic product”. How much longer can we afford to ignore this obvious policy innovation?
 
Hal Pawson is Associate Director - City Futures - Urban Policy and Strategy, City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, UNSW and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hal-pawson-147969" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Taxing empty homes: a step towards affordable housing, but much more can be done

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Across Australia, total unoccupied dwellings rose to 1,039,874, or 11.2 percent of the total 9.2 million private homes.
It was at 10.7 percent of the total five years earlier. 
Perth had the highest proportion of empty dwellings, with 11 percent. Melbourne was second with 9.6 percent.
In Sydney 7.7 percent of properties were unoccupied, up from 7.2 percent. Melbourne's 9.6 percent was up from 9 percent.
On census night there were 167,500 dwellings in Melbourne left vacant, 26,000 more empty homes than in 2011.
Unoccupied houses are often holiday homes or properties that can't be rented out.
Kristina Clifton, economist at the Commonwealth Bank, noted there had been a lot of talk in the press about foreigners purchasing new apartments and then leaving them empty.
The Federal government is trying to deter this type of activity with a new vacancy tax for foreigners introduced in the latest Federal Budget in May.
The Victorian Government is also introducing a similar tax.
"It’s been difficult to work out the extent to which this is happening.
"But the Census data tell us that the proportion of dwellings that are unoccupied increased by 0.5 percentage points (ppts) to 11.2 percent over the four years to 2016.
"The increase was 0.2 ppts larger than over the four years to the 2011 Census.
"Of the additional stock built over the four years to 2016, around 17 percent has been left unoccupied."
Clifton noted one caveat however is that we don’t know the ownership split between domestic and foreigners owners for this unoccupied housing stock. 
The average home had 2.6 occupants.
But the number of households with six or more people jumped in Sydney over the past five years.
There were 76,323 homes in Sydney with six or more, up 20 percent from the 63,168 five years earlier.
The next biggest increase was among five-person households, which picked up 10.2 percent to 130,712.
Kids staying at home longer, share houses, or multi-generational households, the higher number of people living under one roof is becoming more common.
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Empty homes on the rise, but so are more crowded homes: 2016 Census

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80068/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The great Australia dream of owning your own home is still alive despite the various problems plaguing housing affordability, new Census data shows. Even though the overall home ownership trend remains strong, it’s masking other issues.
The latest 2016 Census data assesses what the national home ownership and rental rates are and how these vary location. It also gives us a picture of mortgage and rental costs.
Comparing home ownership rates since the 2011 Census, there’s a slow but steady decline in home ownership rates overall - down by 2.9% from 64.9% of all Australian households in 2006, to 62.0% in 2016. However, 7.4% of households did not state their housing tenure in the 2016 Census. This accounts for some of the variation in reported rates of home ownership decline. 
This contraction is nowhere of the scale of equivalent falls in home ownership in the US and UK and New Zealand over the same period. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%208.14.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%208.14.47%20AM.png" alt=""> 
What’s more interesting than the overall trend, is the greater decline in outright home ownership, involving no mortgage debt, from 31.0% to 29.6% between 2011 and 2016. There’s also a lesser decline in home owners who are purchasing with mortgage debt 33.3% in 2011 compared with 32.4% in 2016. 
The opportunity households now have to borrow against their mortgage loans for spending undoubtedly accounts for some of this change. Also contributing to this is home purchasers are less likely to reach retirement age with no remaining mortgage debt, in the same numbers as previous eras.
Another aspect of housing affordability is masked by these numbers - the wide variation in being able to purchase a home according to age and income. Recent evidence indicates would-be-home-owners try various means including very high mortgage debt and moving to outer urban locations away from employment and into smaller dwellings, to be able to buy a house. Some even delay having kids. 
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Census figures show that for people wanting to purchase a home, a change in state or city location may be an option. According to the data Darwin was the most expensive city to buy in, whereas Hobart was the cheapest for home purchasers.
For households across the income spectrum, 7.2% of purchasers are paying more than 30% of their income on mortgage costs, the data shows. This figure is likely to be far higher among the lowest income (40% of households) for whom such costs place them in housing poverty.
Given the national obsession with investment in private rental, it’s no surprise that the proportion of all Australian households now renting has also increased. Census 2016 results show the private rental sector grew in size, from 20.2% in 2006, to 22.0% in 2011 and to 23.6% in 2016. In 2016 a total of 2,089,633 Australian households rented privately, either from real estate agents or private landlords.
The growth of the private rental sector largely reflects the high costs of home purchase. Many households who rent have a relative lack of security and control over rental increases.
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For those unable to pay rent in the private market, social housing is likely to provide little relief. Census data shows overall rates of social housing declining from 4.7% in 2006 to 4.0% in 2016. In this context, the growth in rates of homelessness in the last decade is perhaps not surprising.
For Indigenous Australians, the housing picture is different. Census 2016 data show among households in which at least one resident is Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander, 12.2% are outright owners, 25.9% are purchaser owners, 32.4% are renting privately. Around a fifth of households, 21.5%, live in social housing, reflecting targeted social housing programs in metropolitan, rural and regional areas.
Overall, home ownership has not changed as dramatically in the last decade, as some would have anticipated. However, it’s likely with the labour market being what it is and the adaptations people are making to try and buy a home, there may be longer-term problems to be seen in future.
Excessive household debt, polarisation of cities into low and high income earning areas and deepening family housing constraints indicate these Census figures likely mask bigger problems. This may translate over time into a more costly social problem, as increasing proportions of households require housing assistance of some form. Australian society could become even more divided on the basis of housing wealth and opportunity, if these trends continue, as we expect they will.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/wendy-stone-9804" target="_blank">Wendy Stone</a> is Associate Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kath-hulse-228874" target="_blank">Kath Hulse</a> is Research Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/margaret-reynolds-324336" target="_blank">Margaret Reynolds</a> is Researcher, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/terry-burke-1268" target="_blank">Terry Burke</a> is Professor of Housing Studies, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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Home ownership remains strong in Australia but it masks other problems: Census data

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s population expanded by 372,805 people over the year to December 2016 to 24,385,625 people.
Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.547 percent to 1.553 percent – the fastest population growth in almost three years.
Upward revision: With the release of the latest Census data, population estimates have been revised higher. The initial estimate of Australia’s population in the September quarter was revised up by 87,000.
Victoria leads: Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.40 per cent, just short of the June quarter 16 record of 2.42 per cent), followed by the ACT (1.71 per cent), NSW (1.52 per cent), Queensland (1.46 per cent), Western Australia (0.66 per cent), South Australia (0.61 per cent), Tasmania (0.58 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.26 per cent).
Census data: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released a raft of data from the 2016 Census. Of interest, the median mortgage repayment fell 2.5 per cent to $1755 a month in the five years to 2016 while household income lifted 16.4 per cent and family income rose by 17.1 per cent.
The population figures are especially important for companies exposed to home building and consumer spending. The Census data is important for all businesses in planning new markets.
What does it all mean?
Victoria remains the population leader – a position it has for over two years. Before that, you have to go back to 1888 to find a time when Victoria held the position of the state with the fastest population growth. And not only is Victoria’s population growing at near the fastest rate on record, population numbers in the state have been revised up by 87,000.
Population is growing faster than decade averages in Victoria, NSW and Tasmania, underpinning housing demand. Interestingly Tasmania’s population growth rate has almost doubled in less than two years, driving growth for the local economy. 
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Australia’s baby boom continues. A total of 311,000 babies were born over the past year, just below the highest annual total on record. More hospitals and schools will be needed. Hopefully policymakers quickly get across the latest Census data quickly.
There are more people in Australia than previously estimated – in fact 87,000 extra people, requiring an extra 33,000 homes. Most of the “extra” people have been “found” in Victoria. But there are 58,000 fewer people in Western Australia than previously believed.
Amongst some of the interesting Census data released, the median mortgage repayment fell 2.5 per cent to $1,755 a month in the five years to 2016 while household income lifted 16.4 per cent. The data will be closely dissected by investors on a regional basis to gain insights on housing affordability.
The proportion of families renting is now broadly equal to those owning homes outright. This highlights the fact that interest rate decisions now only really interest 32 per cent of the population.
What do the figures show?
Population Statistics:
Australia’s population expanded by 372,805 people over the year to December 2016 to 24,385,625 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.547 per cent to 1.553 per cent – the fastest population growth in almost three years.
Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.40 per cent, just short of the June quarter 2016 record of 2.42 per cent), followed by the ACT (1.71 per cent), NSW (1.52 per cent), Queensland (1.46 per cent), Western Australia (0.66 per cent), South Australia (0.61 per cent), Tasmania (0.58 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.26 per cent).
Australia’s population grew by 78,397 people over the December quarter.
A total of 209,000 people migrated to Australia over year to December, up from 198,900 in the year to September and the biggest annual gain in three years. Still, growth is still down the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.
There were 311,000 babies born in the past year – just shy of the record growth of 315,500 babies born in the year to June 2016.
Population growth in Victoria is 19.4 per cent above the decade average and population in NSW is 9.2 per cent above the decade average.
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<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/26/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-27%20at%2012.58.15%20PM.png" alt="">
Census revisions
Following the release of Census data today, population estimates for the last five years can be updated. The population estimate for Australia in the September quarter has been revised up by 87,000. The biggest upward revision was for Victoria (+111,000), followed by NSW (+15,000), Queensland and the ACT (both +7,000); South Australia (+5,000). There was no change to population estimates for the Northern Territory and downward revisions for Tasmania (-1,000) and Western Australia (-58,000).
Census data
On average across Australia the median age of Aussies was 38; there were 0.9 people per bedroom; there were 2.64 people per dwelling (up from 2.63 people in 2011 and 2.61 people in 2006).
Between 2011 and 2016 the median household income rose by 16.4 per cent to $1,432 a week with the family income up by 17.1 per cent to $1,734 a week. The median rent rose 17.5 per cent to $335 a week and the median mortgage fell by 2.5 per cent to $1.755 a month. 
The proportion of families living in detached houses fell from 74.2 per cent in 2011 to 71.6 per cent in 2016; those in apartments fell from 14.3 per cent to 13.7 per cent; but those in semi0detached homes rose from 9.9 per cent to 12.7 per cent.
Why is the data important?
Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.
What are the implications?
There are more people in Australia than previously believed and population growth remains solid. In short, the economy has much momentum. The latest strong employment figures can indeed be believed.
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Demand for infrastructure continues to rise, boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies.
Income has risen strongly over the past five years but the median mortgage has actually gone backwards. The data throws new light on estimates of housing affordability.
The number of people per home continues to edge higher, highlighting the need to build more homes.
CommSec believes that cash rates will remain unchanged over the coming year. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Fastest population growth in three years: Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
The results of the 2016 Australian Census clearly demonstrate the swing to urban living across the country. 
In the five years between the 2011 census and the 2016 census Australia’s capital cities have grown by 10.5 percent compared to the rest of the country at 5.7 percent. 
Two thirds of Australians now live in our capital cities with Sydney and Melbourne being the largest cities.
The swing to a more urban population is also demonstrated by the growth in the number of people now living in urban apartments. In 2011 Sydney’s apartment dwellers were 25.8 percent of home dwellers and this has grown to 28.1 percent in the 2016 census. 
With around 70 percent of all dwellings constructed in Sydney over the last year being apartments the percentage of dwellings that are apartments will continue to grow.
Another growing trend is towards renting apartments in cities. In 2011, 31.6 percent of residents were renters in Sydney and this has grown to 34.8 percent in the 2016 census.
As cities like Sydney and Melbourne increase their populations over the next 40 years both will become cities of 8 million people. 
This is the same size as the current populations of London and New York so we must plan for this type of city in the future.
The swing to apartment living will inevitably lead to greater densities in cities like Sydney and these will be mainly in apartment buildings located around railway stations. Just like the impressive Metro and Subway rail systems of New York and London, Sydney and Melbourne will need to develop sophisticated metro rail networks to underpin where future densities are located.
An interesting statistic in the census data is that for the first time in our history the majority of people born overseas are from Asia not Europe. This is a trend that will continue and this is likely to increase the swing towards more urban living in higher densities.
The Urban Taskforce developed an Urban Living Index with McCrindle Research based on the 2011 census to measure the quality of urban living across Sydney. We will be updating the index with the 2016 census data to see which suburbs of Sydney rate highest in terms of urban living.
Chris Johnson is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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2016 Census shows Aussies choosing urban living: Chris Johnson 

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Figures released from the 2016 Census of Population and Housing by the ABS shows the proportion of those owning their own homes outright has declined, falling to 31 percent in 2016 compared to 41.1 percent in 1991.
Census data released today shows residents with mortgages now account for 34.5 percent of the total, up from 27.5 per cent in 1991.
The census also found renters account for 30.9 percent, up from 26.9 percent in 1991.
"Australia's highest mortgages are paid by Sydneysiders, whose median repayments are around $2200 per month," the census found.
Home ownership dropped faster in Sydney than the national average, the latest census figures show.
Total dwelling ownership in the NSW capital dropped to 62.3 per cent in 2016 from 65.2 per cent five years earlier as both outright and mortgage-ownership fell. 
The nationwide home ownership rate dropped 1.5 per cent to 65.5 per cent between 2011 and 2016, but there were notable differences from city to city.
Nationally, home ownership fell to 65.5 per cent since the last census from 67 per cent. 
Darwin mortgages also sit around $2200 per month.
Canberra is next with $2100 per month, followed by Perth ($1950) and Brisbane ($1800). Melburnians pay $1750 per cent, while those in Adelaide pay $1500, just head of Hobart with $1450.
Similarly rents are highest in Sydney -- $440 per week - followed by Darwin ($420) and Melbourne ($350).
Sydney remains the most most expensive city with 14.2 percent of residents devoting more than 30 percent of their incomes on rents.
The proportion of tenants in Sydney increased from 31.6 per cent in 2011 to 34.1 per cent in 2016, making them the most dominant group in the city. Home owners with a mortgage declined from 34.8 per cent to 33.2 per cent. Fewer Sydneysiders owned their home outright – down to 29.1 per cent from 30.4 per cent in 2011.
The ABS Census noted we’re still a nation of home owners, or aspirational home owners, with 31 percent of Australian homes owned outright and 34 percent owned with a mortgage – leaving 31 percent being rented.
While separate houses still account for most homes in Australia (72 percent), there’s been a large increase in other forms of dwelling, such as flats, apartments, semi-detached, row housing or town housing, which now make up more than a quarter (26 percent) of Australian housing – all higher density residential development. 
"Of the 8.3 million occupied private dwellings, seven in 10 housed families (69 percent by one family and 1.9 percent by multiple families), one in four were one-person households, and one in 25 were group households," the Census papers noted.
The nation's diversity is also reaching what the bureau described as "a tipping point" - with 49.3 per cent of the population either born overseas, or born to parents who were born overseas.
Around 50.7 per cent described themselves as "third-generation" or more.
While the biggest number of overseas-born Australians still started life in either England or New Zealand, the last decade has seen the largest number of migrants coming from India (accounting for 13.7 per cent); China (13.3 per cent), followed by England (7.9 per cent), NZ (7.7) and The Phillipines (6 per cent).
Around 2 million migrants live in NSW - accounting for 28 per cent of that state's resident population.
Another 1.7 million live in Victoria (28 per cent of the total), followed by 1.02 million in Queensland (22 per cent), 797,000 in Western Australia (32 per cent), 384,097 in South Australia (26 per cent) and 61,240 in Tasmania (12 per cent).
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Australia's highest mortgages paid by Sydneysiders as ownership slips: ABS Census 2016

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76004/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">GUEST OBSERVER
Today’s release of data from the 2016 Census allows us to identify some of Australians' more common characteristics, how they vary across states and territories, and how they are changing over time.
Australia undertakes a compulsory long-form census – where detailed information across several areas is required of every individual respondent – every five years.
So, what did we learn from the first set of results? According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS):
The 2016 Census has revealed the ‘typical’ Australian is a 38-year-old female who was born in Australia, and is of English ancestry. She is married and lives in a couple family with two children and has completed Year 12. She lives in a house with three bedrooms and two motor vehicles.
Australia is getting a bit older; the typical Australian in 2011 was aged 37.
<h2 class="caption">How do today’s results vary across Australia?</h2>
First, age varies by state and territory.
With variables like age, we often find the “typical” value by taking the median. In essence, we (statistically) line everyone up from youngest to oldest, and find the person who is older than half the population but younger than the other half.
In Tasmania, the median age among 2016 Census respondents was 42. But in the Northern Territory, it was 34. Those in Australian Capital Territory were also quite young (median age 35), whereas those in South Australia were relatively old (40).
The NT population’s relatively young age is influenced by the very high proportion that identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander.
While we don’t have updated estimates for that proportion (either for the NT or nationally), the data released today show that the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population is quite young. The median age nationally is 23. New South Wales and Queensland have the youngest Indigenous population, with a median age of 22.
This release also tells us something about the different migrant profiles across Australia. Nationally, the most common country of birth for migrants is England. And the median age of migrants is much older than for the Australian-born population (44 compared to 38).
The most common country of birth for migrants living in Queensland was New Zealand; in Victoria it was India; in NSW it was China. There may not be too many more censuses until the most common migrant nationally was not born in England.
Ahead of the forthcoming federal budget, there has been a lot of media and policy attention on housing affordability. Today’s release of census data points to some subtle differences across Australia that may influence policy responses.
Nationally, the most common tenure type is owning a three-bedroom home with a mortgage. In Queensland, however, renters make up a roughly equal share of the population. But, in Tasmania and NSW, more people own their own home outright. And in the NT, renting is the most common tenure type.
In a finding that won’t surprise many, the typical female does a bit more unpaid work around the house than the typical male. The most common category for males is less than five hours a week. The most common for females is five to 14 hours.
We won’t know how this compares to paid work for a while yet – or whether these differences vary depending on age.
<h2 class="caption">What future releases will tell us</h2>
The profiles released today offer us limited information. But the census remains one of Australia’s most important datasets.
When detailed data are released in June and then progressively throughout the rest of 2017, we will be able to dig deeper into small geographic areas or specific population groups.
We will be able to ask if there are pockets of Australia with significant socioeconomic disadvantage, and if it is worsening. We will be able to hold governments accountable for the progress we have made on the education, employment and health outcomes of the Indigenous population.
And we will be able to test whether the languages we speak, the houses we are living in, and the jobs that we are doing, are changing.
But those questions rely on a high-quality census.
The attention on the 2016 Census until now has been mostly negative. There was increased concern related to data privacy, the failure of the online data entry system on census night, and staff cuts at the ABS.
In October 2016, the ABS estimated the response rate to the 2016 Census was more than 96%, and that 58% of the household forms received were submitted online. But what matters more than how many people filled in the census and how they did it is whether the responses given were accurate. We therefore need to see a lot more interrogation of the data before taking the results at face value, but we can remain cautiously optimistic.
The ABS will be hoping that now some data is released, attention will shift to what the results tell us about Australian society. It is to be hoped the data will be robust, the insights will be newsworthy, and policy and practice will shift accordingly.
We won’t know this for sure until the first major data release of data June 27 – the data released today were just a sneak peak.
 
Nicholas Biddle is a Deputy Director of the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods (CSRM) at the Australian National University (ANU) and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171" target="_blank">here</a>.
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First results from the 2016 Census paint a picture of who the ‘typical’ Australian is: Nicholas Biddle

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Australian Census came under intense scrutiny in the wake of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/censusfail-30048">#censusfail</a>. Parliament conducted a review, the Senate an inquiry, and some in the media questioned the entire point. 
But cost and privacy concerns aside, population is one of the three pillarsof the economy. 
Understanding population characteristics is vital to inform us of challenges and opportunities, and is a necessary input in other economic indicators. The quality and timely population data found in the census is not gathered through any other means. If changes need to be made, it’s in the discussion around the census.
<h2>So we know who is where</h2>
The census is unique in that it is a total survey of the population, covering a range of social and economic variables. At present, it is the only way such data is obtained in Australia. 
Without the census, we wouldn’t know how many we are, who we are and where we live. This means important planning and policy issues couldn’t be addressed. The location of schools and hospitals, provision of medical facilities, funding for major infrastructure would all be done without an accurate idea of who is where. 
In fact, local, state and federal governments rely heavily on data only available in the census. The number of children, working age population, travel to work information, occupations, housing suitability and vulnerable populations is all data only found in the census.
The census also allows for sub-national analyses to be performed, particularly legislated population estimates and projections. These estimates form the basis of economic indicators such as labour force statistics and gross domestic product per capita.
The estimates and projections also highlight inequalities within society, and provide opportunities for policy responses and development at a regional level.
But the purpose of taking a census goes beyond informing resource allocation, taxation and electoral representation. 
The statistical benchmarks used in surveys and studies, research and analysis, and, most importantly, lower level aggregates and groups of interest can only be informed by census data. Low level aggregates allow identification of need. Identification of areas with high proportions of young people who cannot access employment or education can provide much insight into barriers to economic participation.
Quality information about homelessness, minorities, and Indigenous populations is only truly obtained via a census.
<h2>The data we already collect won’t do</h2>
One of the arguments against the census is that we can get the same data elsewhere from the multitude of service providers that already come in contact with the public. 
The problem is that these data collections are administrative. They’re collected for a reason and with limited scope. 
Centrelink data is collected to provide a service. Information we provide to the tax office ensures tax compliance. Medicare doesn’t keep information about overseas nationals and people who have never had their birth registered, which is an issue in remote and Indigenous communities.
Australia’s large immigrant population would become a blind spot if we were to rely on the data the government already collects, as many aren’t eligible for certain government services. The data collected by Centrelink, the tax office and Medicare don’t provide sufficient scope. So far the census is the only data source that fits the bill.
<h2>Some alternatives</h2>
Population registers are a viable alternative to our five-yearly censuses. Finland uses a computerised system to record population data including births, deaths, marriages, migration and so on. The Netherlands, on the other hand, conducts a virtual census by pulling together digital data from a number of different sources. 
These registers offer real-time data, but they require ongoing maintenance and verification and often exceed the cost of our census. Ironically, they also need to be checked against a census. And Germany’s experience shows population registers are not always accurate. 
Further, major legislation changes would have to go through for Australia to be able to pool data like this. The establishment of a national population register would be costly and demand interdepartmental government coordination.
We could also look to the United States’ method of conducting surveys in between a 10-yearly census. This mixed methodology was suggested by the ABS in 2015 to cut costs.
However, limited financial upside, together with lower quality data, makes it a risky alternative for Australia. Plus we shouldn’t think of the census as an unrecoverable cost. The Office of National Statistics in the United Kingdom estimated the costs of their 2011 census were recoveredin just over a year.
<h2>The future is data</h2>
So how can we improve our census?
Online census completion will save money, improve data quality and reduce data processing time. However, online collection must be balanced to ensure disadvantaged populations aren’t excluded. The end of the census collector hasn’t arrived just yet.
More importantly, we must define contemporary data needs moving into the future. An informed public conversation about migration, employment, families and our changing population is much needed to gain social licence to collect and use relevant data. 
Whether the methodology of census continues as is or we introduce an alternative method of data collection, the key going forward is the question of legitimacy. Steps must be taken to justify the need to take a census, and to assuage privacy and security concerns. Without social license we’ll see the failings of the 2016 census play out over and over again.
Australia’s future relies on strong evidence we can agree on. This isn’t solely the domain of researchers. We all have a stake.
Liz Allen is postdoctoral fellow, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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In a world awash with data, is the census still relevant?

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GUEST OBSERVER
Despite being one of our oldest public institutions, the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) social media campaign for the 2016 Census is a clever nod to the modern zeitgeist.
This census will ask us to “pause” (presumably Netflix) and “make a difference” on the night of Tuesday, August 9.
Held every five years (compared to the ten-year censuses of the UK and US), the ABS describes the census as a:
"Snapshot of Australia, showing how our nation has changed over time, allowing us to plan for the future."
Census data have a real impact on the lives of Australians, from determining political representation through the distribution of electorates, to the allocation of government funding, as well as private investment based on projected demand for goods and services.
Australia uses the census to evaluate how well it is progressing on myriad issues, such as Indigenous policy, the distribution of health outcomes by socioeconomic inequality and to plan for population growth.
<h2>The census’ evolution</h2>
The act of taking a census is as old as civilisation itself; Egyptian, Roman, Byzantine, Persian and Chinese empires all conducted censuses.
The primary purpose of these seems to have been twofold: establishing the size and strength of a potential army in case of war, and enabling effective taxation (in large part to fund these armies).
The industrial and scientific advances of the 18th and 19th centuries led to a dramatic shift in the relationship between the state and the public, and in the ability to statistically “manage” populations.
Economics and sociology as developing academic disciplines further motivated population data collection. The defining idea was that a nation’s physical and moral “progress” could be measured statistically. Thus, the modern census was born.
Today the census plays an essential role in Australia’s public life. It provides the raw data with which policies can be planned and outcomes assessed.
While knowing Australia’s total population at one point in time might seem of little use (as this number is almost immediately out of date), the question of exactly where people are living, and the changing characteristics of these local populations, is of vital importance.
<h2>Technological developments and privacy</h2>
The 2016 Census is in some ways a case of continuity and change. No new questions have been added since the 2011 Census, which makes it easier to compare outcomes across both years.
The big change the ABS is pushing in 2016 is the ongoing move to a more digital census. It is hoping 65% of households will complete the 2016 Census online, compared with 33% in 2011.
Another more controversial change in 2016 is the decision to retain names and addresses temporarily in order to link census results with other administrative data for research and policy assessment purposes.
These records will be kept for four years. During that time they are protected with both digital and physical safeguards. However, privacy groups and those concerned about the potential for government overreach have flagged worries.
<h2>Sensitive information</h2>
Providing the government with personal information, especially on religion or race, is a sensitive issue. This is one of the reasons the question on religious affiliation has remained optional in every Australian census since the first in 1911.
In the early colonial censuses, with their origins in the military-style “musters” of Governor Arthur Phillip, convict status was also a sensitive and unpopular question. It was eventually removed in the second half of the 19th century. The first simultaneous census of all Australian colonies was held in 1881 as part of a wider census of the British Empire.
By this time, the question of race had gained prominence, with the population divided into Australians, Chinese (who had arrived in large numbers during the gold rush) and Indigenous Australians. However, Indigenous Australia would not be properly included in the census count until 1971.
<h2>Data retention</h2>
The history of the Australian census also tells an interesting story about the changing attitude towards the retention of personal information, as reintroduced this year.
In 1891, Victorian statistician Henry Hayter chose to destroy the original census forms rather than hand them over to the police, who wanted access to private records to track down suspected criminals.
Australia has been an outlier in its commitment to destroying individual census records throughout the 20th century. In Canada, the UK and the US, personal records are retained under embargo.
The census represents in many ways the goals and values of our time; we measure what we think is important. But with power (to measure) comes great responsibility, and trust in public institutions like the ABS is therefore crucial.
Nicholas Biddle is fellow, Australian National University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171" target="_blank">here</a>.
Maxine Montaigne is PhD student, Economic History, London School of Economics and Political Science and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/maxine-montaigne-10699" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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What is the census, and why does it matter?

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63336/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
On August 9, most of the Australian population will complete the 2016 Census of Population and Housing. Census night comes less than a week after national Homelessness Week, which aims to raise awareness of the plight of homeless people. With that in mind, the week’s theme this year is “Homelessness Counts”.
While homelessness does count in that most people share concern about its rising incidence and societal impact, a perplexing issue is how to count the people who are homeless. It is essential that the information collected accurately reflects the true extent of homelessness in Australia. Reliable data about the homeless population is vital when developing policy, allocating funding and developing services for vulnerable people.
At the previous 2011 Census, 105,000 people were homeless. That was an increase of 17 percent from the 2006 Census. Anecdotal evidence suggests the number of homeless people – in particular the very old and the very young – is still increasing.
ShelterWA notes the majority of people become homeless due to financial and emotional reasons. The biggest cause of homelessness is family and domestic violence (25 percent), followed by financial difficulties (16 percent). Mental illness and addiction issues can play a role.
Most people experiencing homelessness have lived “normal” lives. They become homeless after a life crisis such as a job loss, illness or marital breakdown.
<h2>When is a person defined as homeless?</h2>
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), when a person does not have suitable accommodation alternatives they are considered homeless if their living arrangement:
<ul>
<li>
is in a dwelling that is inadequate; or
</li>
<li>
has no tenure, or their initial tenure is short and not extendable; or
</li>
<li>
does not allow them to have control of and access to space for social relations.
</li>
</ul>
This definition is much broader than commonly held perceptions of homelessness. While obviously the term covers the archetypal person “sleeping rough”, homelessness refers to a variety of precarious housing circumstances. This includes:
<ul>
<li>
people living in hostels and refuges;
</li>
<li>
people without a usual address – for example, “couch surfing” or staying with friends; and
</li>
<li>
those living in a single room without a kitchen or bathroom of its own.
</li>
</ul>
<h2>How do we ensure homeless people are counted?</h2>
Even armed with the ABS definition, the next issue for the census is how to identify and locate people experiencing homelessness.
<h4>Identification is an issue for several reasons. These include:</h4>
<ul>
<li>
it is not obvious that people who are couch-surfing are not living permanently on the premises;
</li>
<li>
people may not self-identify or feel comfortable about elaborating on their circumstances;
</li>
<li>
as they have a roof over their heads, such as in a hostel, people may not realise they are regarded as homeless.
</li>
</ul>
Locating people is another issue. This is especially challenging in the case of those sleeping rough.
Furthermore, homelessness is an issue in rural and regional areas as well as in cities. Resources are limited and, as 2016 Census data director Sue Taylor has noted: "we have to know they are there to be able to go and count them."
<h2>So what is being done about this?</h2>
Efforts are already being made to obtain quantitative data on homelessness, particularly in the major capital cities.
Unlike the census, which occurs every five years, Registry Week takes place annually and uses the methodology developed by Common Ground in the US. Using a specific survey tool called the Vulnerability Index, trained volunteers work in teams to conduct early morning surveys of people who are sleeping rough.
The methodology promotes a targeted approach with a view to moving the vulnerable homeless people into long-term housing. The strategy is effective in raising awareness of homelessness issues and informing agencies of trends.
It is, however, difficult to target everybody. For a start, some people simply do not want to be found or participate. Although this approach provides valuable information about city areas, there are not enough volunteers in rural and regional areas to assess the issue adequately.
The ABS will adopt a similar approach to the census by employing field officers to seek out homeless people. They will take direction from homelessness service providers.
These providers will help to identify likely locations occupied by people experiencing homelessness and to locate boarding houses, refuges and hostels. Obviously, the field officers have received training or are already experienced in dealing with vulnerable people.
The census form includes a question: “Where does the person usually live?” People who have no usual address are encouraged to enter “None” for the suburb part of the question, regardless of where they are staying on census night, even if they are couch-surfing or staying in other temporary accommodation.
Those using supported accommodation vouchers or brokerage services to stay in caravan parks and motels should record “None – crisis” on the census form.
<h2>On the verge of homelessness</h2>
On a related note, the census is expected to glean information about people experiencing housing stress.
On Monday, Homelessness Australia chair Jenny Smith noted that one in ten Australian households are in housing stress and at risk of homelessness. That is 850,000 people on the lowest 40% of incomes. This inescapable link must be factored into any analysis of the homelessness statistics.
Although the ABS is trying to identify as many people experiencing homelessness as possible, the figures are likely to underestimate the true extent of the issue. Unfortunately, a gap will remain between what providers know is happening “on the ground” and the statistics garnered through the census and channelled through to government.
Until a more expansive approach can be developed – and adequate resources provided for analysis of the results – the census’ pursuit of the homeless demographic will be akin to ghost-hunting.
Eileen Webb is associate professor, Curtin Law School, Curtin University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/eileen-webb-95332" target="_blank">here</a>.
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