<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Aussie Dollar

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>This week we have received significant economic and policy updates from across the globe. From these, it is evident that Australia and New Zealand are both in a good position to rebound.</p>
<p>Beginning at home in Australia, this week’s August labour force update delivered a significant upside surprise, with 111k jobs created in the month and a 0.7ppt decline in the unemployment rate. This result leaves the unemployment rate at 6.8%, almost a full percentage point below our and the market’s expectation for August ahead of the release.</p>
<p>The gain for hours worked was materially lower than for employment, coming in at just 0.1%. However, this was due to a deep decline in hours worked in Victoria (-4.8%); the other states meanwhile experienced a 1.8% gain.</p>
<p>July and August’s employment gains mean the RBA’s 10% unemployment rate forecast for end-2020 is unlikely to be seen. To see such an outcome now, 400-500k jobs would have to be lost by December. This seems improbable, particularly with government support running into 2021. Westpac still anticipates however that the unemployment rate will rise to around 7.8% in late-2020/ early-2021 and that, come end-2021, it will still be elevated at around 7.5%.</p>
<p>The RBA is mindful of the economic damage of an extended period of high unemployment and so continues to make clear their willingness to support the real economy as long as necessary. Notably, in the September meeting minutes there was a clear focus on the state governments and the support they can offer the economy during a recession, particularly by borrowing to invest in infrastructure. Keeping borrowing rates low aids this opportunity.</p>
<p>Westpac Economics also made a significant revision to a key forecast this week. Previously we had anticipated a 10% decline in national house prices from April 2020’s peak to June 2021. Now however, we believe that decline is likely to be limited to about 5%, with 2.7% of that decline already seen. There are two key justifications for this view change, as highlighted by Chief Economist Bill Evans.</p>
<p>First is the benefit that has come to households in 2020 from lower interest rates, particularly as a result of the sharp drop in fixed rates to levels well below variable. Second are the upward revisions we have recently made to our growth and labour market views. Combined, these factors will support affordability, minimising further declines in 2020-21 and laying the foundation for a strong rebound in prices to new historic highs.</p>
<p>Turning to New Zealand, Q2 GDP came in in line with our NZ team’s expectations. GDP jolted 12.2% lower in the three months to June because of the lockdown measures implemented to stop COVID-19. All of the Q2 detail is available in their bulletin. But what needs to be emphasised here is that, while NZ’s lockdown was one of the strictest in the world, it was also highly successful, allowing the economy to rapidly restart. Our NZ team continue to anticipate a strong rebound over the second half of this year, leaving GDP within 5% of its pre-COVID trend. However, continued border closures will limit further gains in 2021.</p>
<p>On to the US and UK. From monetary authorities in both jurisdictions this week came clear guidance that policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative as far as the eye can see.</p>
<p>From the Bank of England, there was a commitment to assess the potential benefits of a move to negative interest rates. While the FOMC did not signal a clear intent to investigate the use of another policy instrument, their revised forecasts and qualitative guidance made clear that policy would remain at least as accommodative as it is currently for an extended period. Indeed, the median view of the Committee is that the federal funds rate will remain on hold till at least end-2023, at which time the unemployment rate would still be above its pre-COVID level and inflation only getting back to 2.0%yr. The statement only made a commitment to sustain purchases of US Treasury and mortgage-backed securities at their current monthly pace of around $80bn and $40bn respectively over coming months. However, the continued inclusion of the phrase “at least” with reference to the current pace makes clear the Committee’s concern over downside risks and implies that a partial then full tapering of asset purchases is also a long way off.</p>
<p>Combined with a broad-based recovery in the global economy, highly-accommodative FOMC policy supports our view that the Australian dollar will continue to rally to USD0.75 end-2020 and USD0.80 end-2021, a rate it is likely to sustain to mid-2022.</p>
<p><strong>ELLIOT CLARKE</strong><em><strong> </strong>is a senior economist at Westpac </em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australia in a good position to rebound, especially the dollar: Elliot Clarke

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
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<p><span>For a long time, we have been bearish on the Australian dollar,  </span>seeing a fall into the high $US0.60s and revising this to around $US0.65 in May. In early October it fell to a low of $US0.6671.</p>
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<p><span>While negatives remain significant for the $A there is good </span>reason to believe that we are close to the low or may have already seen it. This note looks at the main issues. </p>
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<p><strong>The negatives for the $A are well known</strong><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>The big negative for the Australian dollar is that growth is  </span>weaker in Australia and spare capacity is much higher than in the US.</p>
<p>For example, labour market underutilisation is 13.8% in Australia versus just 7% in the US, on the latest available data real growth in Australia is running at 1.4% year on year compared to 2% in the US and that translates to per capita GDP growth of -0.2% in Australia compared to 1.4% in the US.</p>
<p>And the drag on growth from the housing downturn, weak consumer spending and the drought is likely to keep growth relatively weak in Australia for the next six months or so.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/11/25/A%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
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<p><span>This will keep inflation lower in Australia than in the US. Ideally more fiscal stimulus is required, and the Government has brought forward infrastructure spending. But combined with extra drought assistance this only amounts to an extra 0.1% of GDP of fiscal stimulus over the next 18 months which is not enough to make a significant difference to the growth outlook. </span></p>
<p><span>So in the absence of more significant fiscal stimulus soon, the RBA is likely to cut the cash rate further to 0.25% and undertake some quantitative easing (ie using printed money to boost growth). By contrast the Fed is at or close to the low in US rates and is unlikely to return to quantitative easing. </span></p>
<p><span>This will continue to make it relatively less attractive to park money in Australia. </span></p>
<p><span>As can be seen in the next chart, periods of a low and falling interest rate differential between Australia and the US usually see a low and falling $A.</span></p>
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<p><span>So the higher probability of further monetary easing in Australia points to more downside for the Australian dollar. </span></p>
<p><span>Of course, a shift in the policy focus away from monetary easing and towards greater fiscal stimulus would be more positive for the Australian dollar but this looks unlikely in the short term with the Government more focussed on delivering a budget surplus.</span></p>
<p><strong>Five positives for the $A</strong></p>
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<p><span>However, </span><span>it’s </span><span>no longer an easy (in hindsight) one way bet for the $A. There are basically five positives. First, the $A has already had a big fall. To its recent low it</span><span>’</span><span>s fallen nearly 40% from a multi-decade high of $US1.11 in 2011 &amp; it</span><span>’</span><span>s had a fall of 18% from a high in January last year of $US0.81.</span></p>
<p><span>Second, this decline has taken it to just below fair value. This contrasts to the situation back in 2011 when it was well above long-term fair value. The best guide to this is what is called purchasing power parity according to which exchange rates should equilibrate the price of a basket of goods and services across countries. Consistent with this the $A tends to move in line with relative price differentials over the long term.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/11/25/A%203%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
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<p><span>And right now, </span><span>it’s </span><span>just below fair value. Of course, as can be seen in the last chart, the $A could fall sharply below fair value as it tends to swing from one extreme to another. But this depends on the cyclical outlook for global growth and commodity prices. Which brings us to the next positive.</span></p>
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<p><span>Third, the global economic and commodity price cycle is likely to turn up next year in response to global monetary easing, a bottoming in the global inventory and manufacturing cycle and a </span><span>4 </span><span>pause in President Trump’s trade wars </span><span>as he refocusses on winning the presidential election.</span></p>
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<p><span>Based on historical experience, this should work against the US dollar as the US economy is less exposed to cyclical sectors than the rest of the world (which tends to see capital flow out of the US when global growth picks up and into the US when it slows). A weaker US dollar would in turn be positive for commodity prices &amp; </span><span>the $A, which is a “risk on” currency given </span><span>its greater exposure to cyclical industries like raw materials.</span></p>
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<p><span>Fourth, this comes at a time when global sentiment towards the $A remains very negative as reflected in short or underweight positions in the $A being at extremes </span><span>– </span><span>see the next chart. In other words, many of those who want to sell the $A have already done so and this leaves it vulnerable to a rally if there is good news.</span></p>
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<p><span>Finally, the current account has returned to surplus in Australia. </span>The high iron ore price has helped, but so too have strong resource export volumes, services exports and a rising net equity position in Australia’s favour on the back of rising superannuation assets offshore. So the improved current account may be a permanent feature. This means less dependence on foreign capital inflows which is $A positive.</p>
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<p><strong>So where to from here?</strong></p>
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<p><span>The prospects for weaker growth and more monetary easing in Australia relative to the US suggests short-term downside pressure for the $A remains. But with the $A having already had a big fall to just below long term fair value, the global growth outlook likely to improve, short $A positions running high and the current account in surplus it</span><span>’</span><span>s likely that the $A may be close to, or may have already seen, its low. </span></p>
<p><span>Our base remains for it to fall to around $US0.65 as the RBA continues to ease but at the end of 2020 it</span><span>’</span><span>s likely to be stuck around $US0.65-70 (or </span><span>I’ll be honest </span><span>&amp; </span><span>admit I don’t have a strong view either way</span><span>!).</span></p>
<p><span>Of course, if the US/China trade war escalates badly again and the global economy falls apart, causing a surge in unemployment in Australia as export demand and confidence collapses and another big leg down in house prices the Aussie will fall a </span><span>lot more...but that’s </span><span>looking less likely.</span></p>
<p><strong>What does it mean for investors and the RBA?</strong></p>
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<p><span>With the risks skewed towards the $A bottoming soon the case to maintain a large exposure to offshore assets that are not hedged back to Australian dollars has weakened. </span></p>
<p><span>Of course, maintaining a position in foreign exchange for Australian-based investors against the $A provides some protection should things go wrong globally (say in relation to trade) or in Australia (say in relation to household debt).</span></p>
<p><span>For the RBA a shift in global forces towards being more supportive of the Australian dollar over the year ahead would com</span><span>plicate the RBA’s desire to boost Australian economic </span><span>growth. </span></p>
<p><span>Stronger demand for Australian exports would be positive, but upwards pressure on the $A would suggest that further monetary easing may be needed to help keep it down.</span></p>
<p><strong>Key points</strong></p>
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<p><span>In the absence of significant fiscal stimulus soon, further RBA monetary easing both in the form of rate cuts and quantitative easing point to more downside for the $A.</span></p>
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<p><span>However, there is good reason to believe we may be close to the low in the $A (or have already seen it): it has already had a large fall; it is just below fair value; the global economic cycle is likely to turn up next year; sentiment towards the $A is very negative; and the current account is in surplus.</span></p>
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<p><span>Our base case remains for the $A to fall to $US0.65 in the months ahead as the RBA eases further, but at the end of 2020 it</span><span>’</span><span>s likely to be stuck around $US0.65-70.</span></p>
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<p><span><em><strong>SHANE OLIVER</strong> is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.</em></span></p>
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Five reasons why the $A may be close to the bottom: Shane Oliver

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>While some have expressed surprise at the recent resilience in the value of the Australian dollar around the $US0.69-0.70 level despite weak Australian growth and Reserve Bank rate cuts, from a big picture sense it has already fallen a long way. It’s down 37% from a multi-decade high of $US1.10 in 2011 and it’s down 15% from a high in January last year of $US0.81. So, having met our long-held expectation for a fall to around or just below $US0.70 and given its recent resilience now is an appropriate time to take a look at its outlook.</p>
<p><strong>The $A is slightly undervalued long term</strong></p>
<p>The first thing to note is that from a very long-term perspective the Australian dollar is around or just below fair value. This contrasts to the situation back in 2011 when it was well above long-term fair value. The best guide to this is what is called purchasing power parity (PPP) according to which exchange rates should equilibrate the price of a basket of goods and services across countries – see the next chart.</p>
<p>If over time Australian inflation and costs rise relative to the US, then the value of the $A should fall to maintain its real purchasing power and competitiveness. And vice versa if Australian inflation falls relative to the US. Consistent with this the Australian dollar tends to move in line with relative price differentials – or its purchasing power parity implied level – over the long term. And right now, it’s around or just below fair value. But as can be seen in the last chart, it rarely spends much time at the purchasing power parity level.</p>
<p>Cyclical swings in the $A are largely driven by swings in the prices of Australia's key commodity exports and relative interest rates, such that a fall in Australian rates relative to US rates makes it more attractive to park money in the US and hence pushes the $A down. “Investor” sentiment and positioning also impacts – such that if the $A is over-loved with a lot of long positions then it becomes vulnerable to a fall and vice versa if it’s under-loved.</p>
<p><strong>The negatives for the $A…</strong></p>
<p>For some time, our view has been that the $A would fall into the high $US0.60s and this has happened. But notwithstanding this and that the $A has already fallen a long way from its 2011 high, it could still face a bit more downside over the next six to 12 months. The main reason is that Australian growth is weaker than US growth and spare capacity is much higher in Australia.</p>
<p>For example, labour market underutilisation is 13.7% in Australia versus just 7.1% in the US, growth in Australia is running at 1.8% year on year compared to 3.2% in the US and the drag on growth from the housing downturn is likely to keep growth relatively weak in Australia for the next year or so. So this all points to more downside for the Australian dollar.</p>
<p><strong>…and the positives</strong></p>
<p>Against this there are a bunch of forces acting to support the $A, and this has been evident in its relative resilience despite bad news in recent weeks. Firstly, global sentiment towards the Australian dollar has been negative for some time and this has been reflected in short or underweight positions in the $A being at extreme levels – see the next chart. In other words, many of those who want to sell the $A have already done so and this leaves it vulnerable to a rally if there is any good news.</p>
<p>Secondly, there has been good news with the iron ore price pushing above $US100 a tonne and this combined with solid growth in export volumes has pushed the trade balance into a record surplus which has shrunk the current account deficit as a share of GDP to its lowest since the 1970s. Of course, the iron ore price will likely fall back somewhat when Vale gets production back to normal after its dam disaster, but Chinese economic stimulus may help keep it and other commodity prices supported. The smaller current account surplus means Australia has become less dependent on foreign capital inflows.</p>
<p>Finally, in response to the threat to growth from President Trump’s trade wars, mixed economic data and weak inflation, investors have moved to price in rate cuts from the Fed over the next year. And this is negative for the $US generally after a multi-year bull market since 2008.</p>
<p><strong>So where to from here?</strong></p>
<p>Overall, we expect that the weaker growth outlook in Australia relative to the US and the likely continuing decline in the interest rate differential versus the US will dominate and push the $A still lower.But with the $A having already had a big fall, short $A positions running high, the current account deficit having shrunk and the US dollar looking toppy we see the $A falling to around $US0.65 on a six to 12 month horizon as opposed to crashing down to say the 2001 low of $US0.48.</p>
<p>Of course, if the global economy falls apart, causing a surge in unemployment in Australia as export demand and confidence collapses and another big leg down in house prices then all bets are off and the Aussie will fall a lot more…but that’s not our base case.</p>
<p><strong>What does it mean for investors?</strong></p>
<p>With the risks skewed towards more downside in the value of the $A, albeit less so than say a year ago, there are several implications for investors. First, there remains a case – albeit not as strong as it was when the Australia dollar was much higher – to maintain a decent exposure to offshore assets that are not hedged back to Australian dollars. A decline in the value of the $A will boost the value of an investment in offshore assets denominated in foreign currency one for one.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the fall in Australian interest rates relative to global interest rates has reduced the incentive to hedge because when Australian rates are above global rates investors are “paid” to hedge. Second, if the global outlook turns sour due to say Trump’s trade wars, having an exposure to foreign currency provides protection for Australian investors as the $A usually falls in response to threats to global growth. As can be seen in the next chart there is a rough positive correlation between changes in global shares in their local currency terms and the $A.</p>
<p>Major falls in global shares associated with the emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, the tech wreck into 2001, the GFC, the Eurozone crises and the 2015-16 global growth scare saw sharp falls in the $A. So being short the $A and long foreign exchange provides good protection against threats to the global outlook.</p>
<p>Finally, continuing softness in the $A will be positive for Australian industry sectors that compete internationally like tourism, higher education, manufacturing, agriculture and mining and this will benefit shares exposed to these areas.</p>
<p><em>DR SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital </em></p>
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The $A still has more downside but much weakness has passed: Shane Oliver

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Australian dollar has held within a narrow range of USD0.704 to USD0.716 over the month.</p>
<p>Key commodity prices, particularly iron ore, have been stable over the month with spot at around US$90/t. General expectations have been for this price to adjust downwards. For example the government’s forecast for the iron ore price (fob) by March 2020 is US$55/t (Westpac expects US$74/t spot).</p>
<p>Supporting the iron ore price has been ongoing reports from Vale of likely decommissioning of supply following the collapse of the tailings dam in Brumadinho – general expectation is that Vale will decommission around 40t of production lowering overall annual production from 400Mt to 360Mt.</p>
<p>However markets are expecting even larger production cuts to eventuate. Another major producer, Rio Tinto, has also recently been impacted by a supply shock.</p>
<p>On the demand side, confidence is rising in response to China’s commitment to stabilising growth through lifting credit; easing restrictions on the shadow banking sector; supporting bond issues by local governments to finance new infrastructure investment; tax cuts; and some support to housing in selective regions.</p>
<p>This stability at high levels for key commodity prices is providing solid support to the Australian dollar – indeed the fair value of the AUD as measured by commodity prices, is currently holding well in excess of current spot.</p>
<p>On the other hand, interest rate differentials continue to weigh on the AUD. When on February 21, Westpac moved to forecast the RBA would cut the cash rate by 25bps in August and November this year, markets were not anticipating a cut until April next year.</p>
<p>That pricing has now moved forward to August/September with 75% of a second cut priced by mid next year. (pricing COB Wednesday).</p>
<p>However in a Q&amp;A follow-up to a speech on Wednesday to the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia, Deputy Governor Debelle is reported to have noted “Our expectation is that we will see decent growth in the economy…so we won’t have to get to that point [of cutting rates]”.</p>
<p>A test of that assertion will be when the RBA releases its revised growth; inflation and employment forecasts in the May Statement on Monetary Policy on 10 May. Currently, the RBA is forecasting GDP growth of 3% in 2019 and 2.75% in 2020. The lower growth rate in 2020 is largely explained by a reduced contribution from resource exports – particularly LNG.</p>
<p>Those forecasts were released for the February Statement on Monetary Policy when the RBA was forecasting growth of 2.75% for 2018. Subsequently, growth printed at 2.3% for 2018.</p>
<p><em>BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac</em></p>
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Australian dollar holds as commodities remain stable: Bill Evans

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<p>The <span>Reserve Bank assistant governor Christopher Kent says the </span>recent depreciation<span> in the Australian dollar has been "helpful" at a time where inflation remains weak and the economy is still using up spare capacity.</span></p>
<p>“While the exchange rate is still within the relatively narrow range of the past few years, the recent depreciation is helpful at the margin given that there remains spare capacity in the economy and inflation remains below target,” Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said in a speech in Melbourne last Friday <span>hosted by FX provider XE</span>.</p>
<div class="hardwall" data-position="2">The address traced the fluctuating outlook in recent months as “modest revisions” to global economic growth and inflation combined with greater attention to downside risks from central banks and investors.</div>
<div class="hardwall" data-position="2"> </div>
<div class="hardwall" data-position="2"><span>"After a lengthy period of relative stability, global financial markets have been more volatile over the past few months.</span></div>
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<div class="hardwall" data-position="2"><span>"The incoming data from around the end of 2018 was associated with a tightening in financial conditions: global equity prices declined; corporate credit spreads widened; issuance of corporate debt eased; and volatility picked up across most markets.</span></div>
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<div class="hardwall" data-position="2"><span>"And in the space of only a couple of months, the market's expectations for monetary policies changed markedly and there was a notable downward shift in yield curves."</span></div>
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<div class="hardwall" data-position="2">Kent noted local money markets switched their assessment of the next move in the cash rate to “more likely to be down than up.”</div>
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<div class="hardwall" data-position="2">Earlier this month <span>Governor Philip Lowe tempered the bank's more optimistic language when the RBA kept the cash rate at a record low 1.5 per cent for a 30th month, but dropped its longstanding prediction that an improving economy meant the next move was likely to be upwards.</span>
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A$ adjustment assisting economy: RBA's Christopher Kent

Financial stability, speculative mania and an eAUD? RBA's Philip Lowe

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The US Federal Reserve lifted interest rates as expected.</p>
<p>In simple terms the economy is doing well, annual inflation is gradually returning to the 2 percent target level and emergency-level interest rate settings are not justified. Fed policymakers favour another two rate hikes this year.</p>
<p>But as always nothing is set in concrete. If there are big tax cuts then the Fed may need to be more aggressive with rate hikes. But if inflation remains tame, the Fed can take its time in lifting rates. It is basically that simple.</p>
<p>The federal funds midpoint target is now 0.875 percent, still well below the 1.5 percent cash rate in Australia. The Fed expects the fed funds rate to lift to 2.75-3.00 percent in the long-term, but that is a long way off.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>Some commentators have been critical of the Fed. But things change – politics, oil prices, business and consumer sentiment. There are no guarantees, so you make decisions that are appropriate at the time.</p>
<p>If the Fed does indeed lift rates another two times in 2017, and indeed lifts rates three times as it currently projects in 2018, it will be in response to good economic circumstances. Firm growth in the US and China and improving growth in other parts of the world mean other central banks will look to lift rates.</p>
<p>It is too early to speculate on Australian interest rates. But the US rates move is yet another sign that Australian rates have bottomed. However the Reserve Bank will only lift rates if it believes inflation is headed for 2.5 per cent, meaning more “normal” rate settings are required.</p>
<p>It is important to highlight that the world has changed. Inflation is lower, globalisation and technology are keeping inflationary pressures low and interest rates are likely to peak at lower levels than in the past. Rate settings are still very accommodative across the globe, and that includes the US even after recent rate hikes.</p>
<p>The Aussie dollar rose over US1 cent in response to the Fed decision. Other currencies also rose – the main reason being that some investors thought the Fed would lift rates four times in total this year while the Fed is only flagging three hikes. The Aussie also lifted in line with higher commodity prices.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>The higher Aussie dollar is positive for travellers and those looking to buy imported goods. But the higher Aussie is less positive for exporters and the tourism sector.</p>
<p>The health of the US economy, together with the data earlier this week showing good Chinese economic growth, are positives for the resources sector. The perception is that stronger business and consumer spending means stronger demand for raw materials and potentially higher prices. <span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<div class="column"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-16%20at%209.41.55%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<p>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>CommSec.</em></span></a></p>
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