Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Expert Insights

<h2>OPINION:</h2>

Throughout April 2021, national property values increased 1.8 per cent; a whopping six times the average monthly movement in property prices for the past decade. For the typical Australian home, that signals an increase of $11,240 in value in just one month, according to <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/how-much-housing-market-can-different-incomes-buy" target="_blank">CoreLogic</a>. In markets like Sydney, that figure is likely to be much higher.

It&rsquo;s no wonder housing affordability is on the decline. <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/how-much-housing-market-can-different-incomes-buy" target="_blank">CoreLogic</a> reports that middle-income households in Sydney can&rsquo;t afford 75.5 per cent of Sydney houses and 41 per cent of Sydney units.

For many Sydneysiders, buying a home in Sydney will simply become unaffordable and unattainable. For those that do stretch themselves, they&rsquo;ll be burdened with a very large mortgage debt in danger of becoming unserviceable once interest rates eventually rise. So, what&rsquo;s the solution?

<h2>Sydneysiders to escape north</h2>

What we&rsquo;re likely to see is a migration north in search of cheaper housing, a better lifestyle and a more affordable cost of living. Places like the Central Coast will prove popular for those working in Sydney and willing to commute.

Other areas like Brisbane with a strong jobs market will also attract Sydneysiders.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29384 project_image_fid=155506]

When you compare the house prices you can understand the appeal. Let&rsquo;s look at a few examples.

In Windsor in Brisbane, about 6km from the CBD, <a href="/buildings/amor-windsor-residences-29-bryden-street-windsor">these spacious luxury one-bedroom apartments</a> start at $380,000. You&rsquo;d be hard-pressed to find an apartment for this price in Sydney, let alone one so desirable.

On Brisbane&rsquo;s Queen St, perched on the river, is <a href="/buildings/443-queen-street-brisbane-443-queen-street-brisbane">this luxury development</a> boasting brand new one, two and four-bedroom apartments starting at $730,000 in the heart of the city.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29185 project_image_fid=83369]

Ascot in Brisbane is one of Brisbane&rsquo;s most expensive and affluent riverside suburbs, about 7-8km from the CBD. For <a href="/buildings/ascot-green-by-mirvac-tulloch-house-61-st-leger-way-ascot-4007">these brand new three-bedroom apartments</a>, it will set you back around $1,230,000. That&rsquo;s close to Sydney&rsquo;s median property price, but buyers get a brand new luxury apartment in one of the most sought after locations in Brisbane.

<h2>Is leaving Sydney the best option for me?</h2>

If you feel like you&rsquo;re stuck in the rat race and can&rsquo;t get ahead, relocating out of Sydney might be a good option for you. It&rsquo;s best to do extensive research on which areas have strong job opportunities in your field and will support the lifestyle you want. Don&rsquo;t be enticed by more affordable housing alone.

If you feel like you&rsquo;re being priced out of the Sydney market, leaving Sydney isn&rsquo;t the only option. Renting a home in Sydney while investing interstate (known as rentvesting) is one option you may want to consider to build wealth without needing to leave.

In fact, with the exodus north, an investment in an area like South East Queensland is likely to be a savvy choice as demand pushes up prices and capital growth prospects for investors.

If the investment performs well over time, the equity could potentially be used as a deposit to fund a future house deposit in Sydney.

Olivia Round

OPINION: Sydneysiders set to migrate north

<html><body>
Internal migration resulted in a net loss of 11,200 people from Australia’s capital cities in the September quarter of 2020, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">data</a> released this month. At the same time, some regional areas experienced significant <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-04/house-prices-rise-1pc-regional-beats-capital-cities/13029268#:%7E:text=Annual%20data%20by%20real%20estate,research%20director%20Tim%20Lawless%20said.">growth in house prices</a> as <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2020/12/04/regional-australia-property-boom/">demand for properties</a> increased. So this has raised the questions: are we starting to see an <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/abs-data-confirms-city-exodus-during-covid/13112868">exodus from our cities</a>, and is this related to the COVID-19 pandemic?

To work out what is happening there are a few important things to consider.

<h2>In Australia we move a lot</h2>

The first thing to keep in mind is that Australia has one of the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69">most internally mobile populations</a> in the world. About 40% of the population change their addresses at least once within a five-year period. However, the level of internal migration within Australia has <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69">fallen since the 1990s</a>.

The greatest fall has been for long-distance moves between Australia cities and regions, which <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia">declined by 25%</a> between 1991 and 2016. Moves between states and territories <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia">fell by 16%</a> over this period. An increase or decrease in internal migration from year to year is not unusual.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="chart showing net internal migration figures from September quarter 2010 to September quarter 2020" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=420&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=420&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=420&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=528&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=528&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383668/original/file-20210211-19-dvgm7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=528&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional internal migration estimates</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure><h2>Putting the numbers into context</h2>

While the recent loss of 11,200 people from Australia’s capital cities is the largest on record, it’s not a significant proportion of the population. Australia’s population has grown and so we expect to see the number of internal migrants to grow too.

The net loss of 11,200 people from capital cities is only 0.06% of the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2018-19">total population</a> – 17.2 million – living in these cities. This is comparable to recent years.

While net loss – those arriving less those departing – is interesting, it is also important to consider the actual numbers of people who are moving to or leaving capital cities. The growth in the net loss of population from capital cities in the September quarter was not the result of a city exodus. What happened in 2020 was that fewer people moved into capital cities.

Drilling down further behind the headline data, we find Brisbane, Perth and Darwin all had net population gains. Brisbane has gained residents through internal migration in <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">each quarter since 2014</a>.

The greatest contributor to the recent net quarterly loss of 11,200 was Sydney, with a net loss of 7,782 people. Melbourne was close behind with a net loss of 7,445.

While this might look alarming at first, Sydney and Melbourne are the largest population centres in Australia. And Sydney has recorded a net loss of population through internal migration <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">every quarter for the past two decades</a>. Melbourne recorded net losses until 2012 and then since 2017.

Sydney and Melbourne’s overall population continued to grow over this period due to international migration. Population churn is part of the rhythm of these global cities.

The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">data</a> also reveal that, on average, regional Australia has been gaining population for many years – decades actually. Moving to regional Australia is not new.

The past year’s COVID-19 restrictions closed Australia’s borders to the previously <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia/latest-release#net-overseas-migration">large numbers of international migrants</a>. Without these international migrants moving to capital cities, the long-term trend of people relocating to urban areas around major cities has become more apparent.

<h2>Have the capital cities lost their appeal?</h2>

Just considering the September 2020 quarter, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">nearly 42,000 people</a> moved to capital cities. This is comparable to the March and June quarters of 2020.

This inflow is noteworthy. At a time when many capital cities had mobility restrictions related to COVID-19 in place, people were still moving to these cities. Australia’s capital cities <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/300000-more-people-living-capital-cities">have not lost their appeal</a>.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="Table showing quarterly internal migration for greater capital cities in September 2019, June 2020 and September 2020" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=241&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=241&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=241&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=302&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=302&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=302&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption>Click on table to enlarge. <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional internal migration estimates Feb. 2021</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure>There is a risk in interpreting net migration from capital cities as an indicator of decreasing satisfaction with city lifestyles or a growing desire for rural lifestyles. It masks the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook43p/regionalpopulation">considerable variability</a> in the types of moves people are making, where they are going and why.

Outside of capital cities are a whole range of different community types. They range from expansive city areas such as the Gold Coast and Geelong through to tiny agricultural and fishing hamlets.

The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release">fastest-growing areas outside capital cities</a> are those that offer sophisticated urban settings. They have diverse employment options and high-order social, education and healthcare infrastructure. So when people leave a capital city, more often than not <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Feature%20Article12016-17?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3218.0&amp;issue=2016-17&amp;num=&amp;view=">they are moving to a large city</a>.

<h2>Will COVID-19 lead to growth in smaller centres?</h2>

Australia’s overall population growth has <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/planning-for-australia%27s-future-population.pdf">promoted the growth of capital cities and larger regional cities</a>. Some smaller communities, particularly high-amenity coastal towns, have also experienced periods of sustained population growth.

Distributing this growth further inland to smaller towns and cities is both possible and plausible.

A major barrier to population growth in smaller rural communities is the lack of diverse local employment options. For those who have made the transition to <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-spark-a-revolution-in-working-from-home-are-we-ready-133070">working fully or partially online</a> as a result of COVID-19 restrictions, <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-urban-sprawl-while-jobs-cluster-working-from-home-will-reshape-the-nation-144409">moving further from their workplace more permanently</a> – and perhaps to the country – could be on the cards.

<h2>So is there a pandemic-related exodus?</h2>

The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting the way we live our lives but, no, there is not an exodus from Australia’s capital cities. For some, pandemic-related disruptions might have heightened their dissatisfaction with where they live. For others, working from home might have provided them with the opportunity to consider alternative living arrangements.

However, right now, given the data we have, it is unlikely that COVID-19 is driving a shift away from capital cities or city lifestyles.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154724/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1">

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-covid-really-caused-an-exodus-from-our-cities-in-fact-moving-to-the-regions-is-nothing-new-154724">original article</a>.

 

<h2>READ MORE:</h2>

<a href="/expert-insights/buying/regional-markets-see-a-significant-increase-in-value-corelogic" target="_blank">Regional markets see a significant increase in value: CoreLogic</a>

<a href="/expert-insights/buying/first-home-buyer-trends-will-2021-be-the-renaissance-of-the-suburbs" target="_blank">First home buyer trends: Will 2021 be the renaissance of the suburbs?</a>
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The 'exodus' from capital cities amounts to 0.06% of their populations – similar to recent years – and people are still moving to the cities. What's missing is growth driven by international migrants

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Has COVID really caused an exodus from our cities? In fact, moving to the regions is nothing new

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More than ever as we emerge from the crisis we are going to have to get the most out of our economy.

Swapping stamp duty for land tax as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/abolish-stamp-duty-the-act-shows-the-rest-of-us-how-to-tax-property-105378">ACT government</a> is doing (over 20 years) and the <a href="https://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-11/NSW%20TSY%20TF%20-%20Glossy.pdf">NSW government</a> is planning (using an opt-in arrangement), is one of the best ways the tax system can help.

This graph from the federal treasury’s 2015 <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/c2015-rethink-dp-TWP_combined-online.pdf">tax discussion paper</a> makes the point.

It says the “marginal excess burden” (damage) done by real estate stamp duty amounts to 70 cents for each dollar raised.

It discourages people and businesses from changing addresses as often as they should, meaning workers live further away from their work than they would and are reluctant to move to where there is better work.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370724/original/file-20201123-19-16bujkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370724/original/file-20201123-19-16bujkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370724/original/file-20201123-19-16bujkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=397&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370724/original/file-20201123-19-16bujkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=397&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370724/original/file-20201123-19-16bujkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=397&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370724/original/file-20201123-19-16bujkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=498&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370724/original/file-20201123-19-16bujkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=498&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/370724/original/file-20201123-19-16bujkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=498&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption><a class="source" href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/c2015-rethink-dp-TWP_combined-online.pdf">Tax discussion paper, Australian Treasury March 2015</a></figcaption></figure>In contrast, treasury found the marginal excess burden of land tax was negative. Land tax makes sure land was used for its most useful purpose and not left idle.

Efficiency-wise it makes sense to swap one for the other, but as with all changes there will be winners and losers, some of them surprising.

In our <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3760893">just-published study</a>, we use real-world data on living arrangements from the Melbourne Institute’s <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda">Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia</a> survey and data on house prices and stamp duty rates from the Real Estate Institute Australia in an attempt to work out who the winners and losers will be.

<h2>Good for the young, and the old</h2>

We find that overall the swap should reduce the purchase price for home buyers, increase the sale price for sellers, increase the total number of transactions and reduce the degree of mismatch in housing.

It should also increase the rate of home ownership.

Young adults, particularly those who are currently having difficulty saving for a deposit would be better off.

Current homeowners would generally be worse off.

Renters would benefit because they are currently excluded from home ownership.

Older landlords, perhaps surprisingly, would also benefit. In many cases the increase in the value of their houses would outweigh the cost of the land tax.

Our findings raise a challenge for governments.

In the long run, the swap would improve the working of the economy, but in the short run it will hurt many current voters.

A gradual transition – either through a very long phase in (of the kind adopted by the ACT) or by allowing households to select into different tax systems (as NSW is planning) would help make the switch more palatable.

But the sooner we start, the better.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154935/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1">

 

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/identifying-the-losers-and-surprising-winners-from-phasing-out-stamp-duty-154935">original article</a>.

 
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Swapping stamp duty for land tax as the ACT government is doing and the NSW government is planning, is one of the best ways the tax system can help our economy

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