Strategic government planning will be crucial in addressing the ongoing supply/demand imbalance in Brisbane’s residential market, as new supply continues to lag.

That’s one of the conclusions from a new CBRE market analysis, which highlights positive fundamentals but ongoing challenges for both the Brisbane and broader South East Queensland residential market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5479]

While 5,600 apartments and townhouses are projected to be completed in Brisbane this year – up from an average of 3,500 in the five years to 2024 – CBRE Research Director Craig Godber said this figure had been somewhat inflated by project delays, which had shifted some anticipated 2024 completions into 2025.

Godber noted that recent completion levels were also well below the peak period in 2016 and 2017 when annual additions averaged around 12,500 units and townhouses.

“Brisbane's residential market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with demand outstripping supply," Godber said.

"Strategic planning by the State Government is crucial in addressing this imbalance and ensuring sustainable development."

Godber noted that low supply levels had translated into an extended period of low vacancy rates, with Brisbane’s metropolitan vacancy being at or below 1.5% since early 2021 and hitting 0.9% as at March this year.

These tight market conditions are evident across all city precincts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149098 project_image_fid=330588]

Looking ahead, adjusted additions between 2025 and 2029 are forecast at 23,200 dwellings, or 4,600 per annum, with 60% of these expected to be concentrated in Brisbane’s inner city.

“Brisbane’s low vacancy rate highlights the urgent need for additional residential supply and the forecasted growth in dwelling completions is a positive step towards meeting this demand,” Godber said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=3770]

CBRE Metropolitan Investments Director Will Carman said Brisbane’s population expansion and strong demand fundamentals were driving interest in city development sites, but he noted that developer attitudes were shifting.

“As construction pricing continues to climb, developers are becoming more discerning. The focus has shifted toward delivering high-quality, well-located residential communities that can withstand market pressures and meet long-term demand,” Carman said.

He also noted the issue of affordability, with Brisbane’s median house price having crossed the $1 million mark.

“This reflects not only the city’s strong fundamentals and sustained demand, but also the growing challenge of affordability - particularly for first-home buyers. This price growth underscores the importance of strategic planning and quality development to meet evolving market expectations,” Carman said.

Developer focus shifts to high-quality, well-located residential communities that can withstand market pressures and meet long-term demand, new CBRE analysis shows

Joel Robinson

Challenges and opportunities in Brisbane’s residential market as supply lags

Not only is growth in Brisbane’s unit market lasting longer, it’s also getting stronger.

In August, unit values climbed a further 1.3 per cent, one of the strongest monthly results the Queensland capital has recorded in 2025, pushing the median unit value beyond $740,000, according to Cotality’s latest Home Value Index.

Over the rolling quarter, unit values surged 3.9 per cent, and are now 11.1 per cent higher year-to-date,&nbsp;making Brisbane the strongest-performing capital city unit market in the country.

The city’s apartment sector is also comfortably outpacing detached housing in 2025. House values rose 1.2 per cent in August to reach a median of $1.04 million, but quarterly growth was softer at 2.9 per cent, with an annual gain of just 7.3 per cent.

This widening divergence highlights the relative affordability of apartments and the intensifying demand for medium-density housing amid constrained supply,&nbsp;a trend reshaping Brisbane’s property market.

&nbsp;

<h2>What happened in Brisbane’s off the plan apartment market in August?</h2>

It was a busy month in Brisbane's off the plan property market, with new projects coming to the market, new projects and approved, and some hitting major construction milestones.

&nbsp;

Gold Coast developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> revealed its debut Brisbane apartment development to the market, starting to take expressions of interest for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/symphony-south-brisbane-21-23-cordelia-street-south-brisbane-qld-4101">Symphony</a>&nbsp;in South Brisbane.&nbsp;

The 138-apartment development, part of Sherpa’s affordability-focused Flourish brand, is located near Fish Lane and aims to deliver quality homes at more accessible price points.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=3444]

Symphony’s one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments will start from $655,000, with eligible first-home buyers benefiting from Queensland’s new stamp duty exemptions.&nbsp;

Over 1,400 sqm of communal amenity, including workspaces, rooftop pool, wellness centre, and private dining, will support a lifestyle-driven community.&nbsp;

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/sherpa-opens-pre-release-for-debut-brisbane-apartment-development-symphony">Sherpa opens pre-release for debut Brisbane apartment development, Symphony</a>

Two new project launches in the same month is something Brisbane hasn’t seen in years. Joining Symphony at launch was <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/banksii-east-brisbane-169-wellington-road-east-brisbane-qld-4169">BANKSII</a>, a 72-apartment development rising opposite Raymond Park in East Brisbane

To be developed by joint venture partners <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/core-property-partners">Core Property Partners</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vector-property">Vector Property</a>, BANKSII has been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a>&nbsp;to reinterpret and integrate the flow of the&nbsp;native Banksia flower into the architecture.

The rooftop will include a suite of wellness amenities including a pool, sauna, gym, and alfresco spaces.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5476]

&nbsp;

With the Kangaroo Point Green Bridge, The Gabba, and Cross River Rail all within walking distance, BANKSII is poised to benefit from Olympic precinct investment in the lead-up to 2032.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/banksii-sales-launch-in-booming-east-brisbane-apartment-market">BANKSII sales launch in booming East Brisbane apartment market</a>

August saw major construction milestones achieved both in and out of the city.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia" target="">Sekisui House</a>&nbsp;celebrated the completion of the Uno building at West Village, unveiling its largest apartments, up to 347 sqm internally, as part of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-allere-collection-west-village-mollison-street-west-end" target="">The Allere Collection</a>.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=5698]

Positioned in one of Brisbane’s most mature masterplanned precincts, the new residences target the undersupplied upper end of the market, offering rooftop gardens, pools, and pet-friendly amenities like the Paw Pavilion.&nbsp;

The Uno tower follows strong interest in its sold-out sister building Duo, due for completion in late 2025.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/sekisui-house-unveils-allere-unos-largest-apartments-as-building-completes">Sekisui House unveils Allere Uno's largest apartments as building completes</a>

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/rochedale-qld-4123">Rochedale</a> in Brisbane’s south, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/metro-property-group">Metro Property Group</a> also marked a key construction milestone at Citrine Townhomes, with stage one now in the defects phase and full completion of all building works.&nbsp;

Stages one and two are fully sold out, while the recently launched stage three has just 10 four-bedroom homes remaining, priced from $1.125 million.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136295 project_image_fid=2663]

Across the three stages, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/citrine-townhomes-rochedale-311-gardner-road-rochedale-qld-4123">Citrine Townhomes</a> will deliver 90 three and four-bedroom homes with landscaped resident amenities, including a pool and BBQ area.&nbsp;

Settlements for stage one are expected to commence from October 2025.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-stage-of-townhouses-at-citrine-rochedale-reaches-completion-milestone">First stage of townhouses at Citrine Rochedale reaches completion milestone</a>

Builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mcnab-developments">McNab</a> is expected to launch its new West End project after receiving development approval from the Brisbane City Council in August.

The new development,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/tannery-residences-439-montague-road-west-end-qld-4101">The Tannery Residences</a>, will see the historic Dixon's Tannery reimagined into a 10-level apartment building that will&nbsp;integrate the original 19th-century building into a resident wellness hub dubbed The Retreat, featuring a sauna, plunge pools, gym, Pilates studio, and co-working areas.&nbsp;

<img alt="McNab secures approval to transform West End's Dixon’s Tannery into The Tannery Residences" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/McNab%20The%20Tannery_Render_09.jpg?VersionId=Ucpd19J0ABOpzetZ.BsyYmS_x2N2QV_g" />

The 81 residences, ranging from two to four bedrooms, will be complemented by expansive rooftop amenities, including a pool, dog-friendly zones, and outdoor dining.&nbsp;

McNab plans to begin construction in Q3 2025, with completion expected by late 2027.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/mcnab-secures-approval-to-transform-west-ends-dixon-s-tannery-into-the-tannery-residences">McNab secures approval to transform West End's Dixon’s Tannery into The Tannery Residences</a>

&nbsp;

One of the largest applications the local council has seen in years hit the new apartment pipeline in August.

Verso Development filed plans for Toowong Central, a $1 billion precinct across three towers delivering 1,100 apartments to Brisbane’s undersupplied inner-west.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<img alt="$1 billion Toowong Central to deliver 1,100 apartments to undersupplied Brisbane market" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/architecture.png?VersionId=G7zTAAtY9Nj3muYKNSFxD_dzEWMqRn3X" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/kerry-hill-architects">KHA</a>, the scheme includes short-term accommodation and a civic plaza, and aims to reclaim <a href="Toowong">Toowong</a>’s identity with subtropical urbanism and integrated public realm outcomes.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/1-billion-toowong-central-to-deliver-1-100-apartments-to-undersupplied-brisbane-market">$1 billion Toowong Central to deliver 1,100 apartments to undersupplied Brisbane market</a>

City Beat August 2025: Brisbane unit values surge again in August, as two new apartment developments launch to market

Summit &amp; Ridge, the fourth stage of Sekisui House Australia's Sanctuary in Wentworth Point, secured a flurry of sales at its recent launch.

More than 80 per cent of purchasers of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/summit-ridge-at-sanctuary-wentworth-point-14-16-hill-road-wentworth-point-nsw-2127">Summit &amp; Ridge</a>&nbsp;were owner occupiers, underlining the strong demand from buyers looking to live within the new&nbsp;riverfront community. Over 40 apartments were sold valued at $46.5 million within three hours of the launch event, with an average price of $1.107 million.

“Buyers appreciated the larger layouts in this stage and the sense of space Summit &amp; Ridge offers,"&nbsp;said Matthew Landa, Senior Sales Executive – Apartments &amp; Mixed-Use Developments.

"The combination of generous apartments, exclusive amenities and unique position on the Parramatta River peninsula helped with sales. Many told us they could picture themselves living here, it is a place that feels established, green and connected, yet private."

The launch drew interest from local buyers within a 5km radius, as well as repeat purchasers from previous Sanctuary stages, with 15 per cent of buyers upgrading their property portfolio through Sekisui House Australia’s Rewards Program. Purchasers also came from the Lower North Shore, Oatlands and the Inner West, highlighting the project’s broad market appeal.&nbsp;

<img alt="Summit &amp; Ridge at Sanctuary, Wentworth Point" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1166d1aa-e075-429c-a1f4-4861cad140e3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/2417_TheSanctuary_02_EXT_Podium.jpg?VersionId=E37Ym7TBhQX4VFKnFNDwccSiDLp81KZA" />

Comprising 488 apartments across Summt (39 levels), and Ride (32 levels), the first sales release focused exclusively on one and two-bedroom residences, priced from $720,000 to $1.3 million. One-bedroom apartments were popular, with purchasers valuing their limited supply, pricing and uninterrupted views across the Newington Nature Reserve, Parramatta River and picturesque views across the Blue Mountains.

Summit &amp; Ridge enjoys an enviable position on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/wentworth-point-nsw-2127">Wentworth Point</a> peninsula, the only built environment north of Hill Road, surrounded by water and a nature reserve. The project’s Neighbourhood Green, a 1.5-hectare landscaped parkland running through the heart of Sanctuary will also open soon.

The towers by acclaimed architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/turner-studio">TURNER</a> are defined by organic, sculptural forms that frame views, guide movement and enhance the connection between nature and the city, a design approach that ensures Summit &amp; Ridge will become a striking architectural marker within Sydney’s skyline.

<img alt="Summit &amp; Ridge at Sanctuary, Wentworth Point" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49e681c8-af8e-4623-aa60-7573acaade7e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/CGI1.png?VersionId=EkqjP9veHDeZaSeXkN8p1aOUW79nLdVv" />

Summit will feature resident-only amenities on level 29 including a resort-style pool and sauna, while Ridge offers an outdoor cinema, sunset bar and dining space on level 23. At the base of Ridge, a 110-place childcare centre will further support growing families, reinforcing the masterplan’s focus on lifestyle and community.

The interiors in the project by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/henderson-co">Henderson &amp; Co.</a>, were inspired by the “natural elegance” of Sanctuary’s landscape setting, with efficient Japanese design principles enhancing space and light throughout the homes. 
&nbsp; 
“The fact that sales were achieved so quickly shows the strength of demand for quality, well-designed apartments in Sydney,"&nbsp;Landa added.

"Owner occupiers in particular see the long-term value of being part of a master planned community delivered by Sekisui House Australia, and that trust has been a major driver behind this success."

Sales momentum was further supported by the current downward trend in interest rates, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

<img alt="Summit &amp; Ridge at Sanctuary, Wentworth Point" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="31591500-e65c-44d6-aa48-35310a7bd45b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/HERO_CASE%20STUDY%20A_1.jpg?VersionId=DiE.Zk1g8Rfb1fRmMMe_0r6oa55oYsAb" />

The recent completion of the third stage of Sanctuary, Laguna &amp; Glade,&nbsp;has further reinforced purchaser confidence, giving buyers a first-hand view of Sekisui House Australia’s build quality and design execution.

Nearby amenities include Marina Square Shopping Centre, Wentworth Point High School, ferry terminal, train station and the future Parramatta Light Rail.&nbsp;

Three and four-bedroom apartments will be released at future launches. &nbsp;Construction is anticipated to commence in Q4 2025 and completed by Q3 2028.

Every apartment in Summit &amp; Ridge will carry a 4 Gold Star iCIRT rating, an independent NSW Government-backed accreditation for integrity, capability and financial stability, giving buyers confidence they are investing in a home built to last.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144917]

Owner occupiers drive $46.5 million launch success at Summit & Ridge, Wentworth Point

Plans to transform the former VicRoads site in Kew are progressing with four shortlisted developers invited to submit their proposals for the site.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/riverlee">Riverlee</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lendlease-development">Lendlease Development Pty Ltd</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac Group</a> and a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a>-led consortium have been invited to participate in the Request for Proposal (RFP) process to deliver much needed housing at 60 Denmark Street, Kew.

Acting Executive General Manager Housing, Nemesia Kennett, said the RFP stage follows a strong response to the initial Expression of Interest (EOI) campaign.

"Denmark Street, Kew, presents a unique development opportunity which has attracted high caliber developers well qualified to transform the site,"&nbsp;Kennett said.

“Each shortlisted developer brings a depth of expertise and proven track record in delivering quality housing projects, achieving excellence in design and community outcomes. We’re looking forward to seeing the shortlisted developers' proposals and understanding how they will deliver the best outcomes for the community if successful."

Local views and priorities for the site were captured in a Community Aspirations Report that will guide the next stage of the development process.

"The report found overwhelming community support for redevelopment of the site and recognition of the urgent need for more homes in Kew,"&nbsp;Kennett added.

“Feedback also highlighted opportunities to revitalise public areas, improve walking and cycling connections, create more green open space, and celebrate the site's heritage, including its rail history and Wurundjeri cultural stories.”

Development Victoria will continue to communicate with the Boroondara Council and the local community throughout the transaction process.

A preferred development partner will be confirmed in 2026, following a thorough assessment of proposals.

Developers shortlisted to deliver housing in Kew

Builder-developer ALAND has drawn back the curtain on its first city-focused new apartment development.

The North Sydney development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-173-179-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a>, is the first time the company has ventured this close to the city, having previously completed thousands of apartments predominantly in Sydney's west, and more recently in Gosford.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a> acquired the prime North Sydney site, spanning Walker and Hampden Streets just down the road from the Victoria Cross Metro station, for $240 million in June.

Now they've unveiled the new project, a mix of one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments across a 30-level building designed by Rothelowman.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6384]

The Walden will capitalise on the site’s front-row position on the eastern fringe of the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/north-sydney-nsw-2060">North Sydney</a> CBD, which offers uninterrupted Sydney Harbour views stretching from the Sydney Harbour Bridge all the way to Sydney Heads.

The main tower will be flanked by a small four-level amenity building known as The Pavilion, offering exclusive resident-only amenities including a dedicated concierge service, a sauna and private wellness studio, a gymnasium and fitness studio, a resort-style rooftop pool and sundeck.

There will also be a&nbsp;residents’ lounge, private dining and a wine cellar, and co-working facilities with an on-site meeting room and boardroom.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6382]

ALAND Founder Andrew Hrsto said the company knew they could create something "iconic" with The Walden when they saw the site.

&nbsp;

“As a company, we had been searching for a site in one of Sydney’s blue-chip locations, spanning the Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney CBD and the North Shore, and when we had the opportunity to purchase this site, we immediately recognised that it could be something iconic – being the last development with a view offering this exceptional.

“We identified the attributes and quality of the site as being perfectly aligned for ALAND – and we feel that this off-market acquisition is a perfect opportunity to showcase our craftmanship and expertise through a truly unique offering."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6399]

Hrsto pointed to ALAND’s longstanding development expertise as a significant benefit in delivering a positive outcome for The Walden.

“Being a fully integrated development and construction business with a highly experienced team, we have the benefit of in-house experts across the development spectrum, from acquisitions, design, planning, and construction, to sales, marketing, property management, through to building management.

“As one of Australia’s largest private development and construction groups, we’ve been in operation for 23 years, with a Gold Star iCIRT rating and a 100 per cent delivery success rate across numerous masterplanned and mixed-use projects – and we’re very much looking forward to bringing this expertise to The Walden and contributing to the ongoing revitalisation of North Sydney."

The Walden is the latest development in Sydney to have the 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy by Resilience Insurance, protecting buyers from any structural or waterproofing-related issues for 10 years post-completion.&nbsp;

Demolition of existing structures on The Walden site has already commenced through specialist civil contractor Moits, with the aim of completing preparatory ground works by the end of 2025, ahead of construction commencement in early 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

ALAND unveils The Walden, North Sydney's latest luxury apartment development

Coastal Erosion

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68348/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Australia is a huge continent, but a coastal nation.
About 80 percent of Australians live within 50km of the coast, and a sea-level rise of 1.1 metres (a high-end scenario for 2100) would put about A$63 billion (in 2008 dollars) worth of residential buildings at risk. 
Anyone who lives along Sydney’s northern beaches, especially in Collaroy, saw at first hand the damage the ocean can wreak on coastal properties when the coastline was hit by a severe east coast low during a king tide in June.
There are many different factors that determine which coastal homes or suburbs are most at risk of inundation or erosion, either now or in the future. In a review published as part of a series produced by the Australian Energy and Water Exchange initiative, we investigated the causes of extreme sea levels and coastal impacts in Australia, how they have changed, and how they might change even more. While significant progress has been made over recent decades, many questions remain.
The first factor to consider is the average sea level, relative to the land elevation. This “background” sea level varies, both from year to year and season to season. Depending on where you live and what the climate is doing, background sea level can fluctuate by up to about 1m. Around Australia’s northern coastline, for example, El Niño and La Niña can cause large variations in year-to-year sea levels. 
On top of this are the tides, which rise and fall predictably, and whose range varies by location and phase of the moon. Most places have two tides a day, but curiously some only have one - including Perth. 
<a href="/images/2016/11/28/image-20161114-9065-mho9m6.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/28/image-20161114-9065-mho9m6.png" alt="">
Map of tide pattern variations. Red: one high and low tide daily (diurnal); blue: two high and low tides per day (semi-diurnal) with a mixed tidal regime between. OZEWEX, Author provided
On top of that again is the effect of the weather, the most notable short-term effects being storm surges and storm waves. During a surge, the storm pushes extra water onto the coast through a combination of wind pressure, wave buildup, and atmospheric pressure changes. Obviously these factors are much more localised than tides.
Extreme sea-level events, such as the one that hit Sydney in June, can arise from isolated events such as a storm surge. But more often they are due to a combination of natural phenomena that on their own may not be considered extreme. In Sydney, several factors aligned: a storm surge driven by an east coast low, an uncommon wave direction, a king tide, and a higher-than-average background sea level.
These processes already have the capacity to destroy coastal homes and infrastructure. But for the future, we also need to factor in climate change, which will raise the background sea level and may also change the frequency and intensity of storms.
<h2>Long-term trends</h2>
Average sea levels in Australian waters have been rising at rates similar to (but just below) the global average. Since 1993, Australian tide gauges show an average rise of 2.1mm per year, whereas satellite observationsreveal a global average rise of 3.4mm per year. 
What really counts is extreme sea levels, and these have been rising at roughly the same rate, meaning that the rising background sea level is a fairly good guide to how extremes are increasing. 
This trend will continue in the future, although more energetic storm systems may also cause larger storm surges and hence higher rates of extreme sea levels in some places. More frequent storms are also set to make extreme sea-level events more common.
By 2100, global average sea level is projected to rise by 0.28-0.61m, relative to the period 1986-2005, if this century’s global warming can be held to about 1℃. But if greenhouse emissions continue to increase at their current rate, the world is in line for sea-level rises of 0.52-0.98m. 
This rise will not be uniform around Australia’s coastline. The east coast is likely to experience up to 6cm more sea-level rise than the global average by 2100, because of the expected warming and strengthening of the East Australian Current.
Trends in Australia’s weather and waves are harder to predict. Satellite measurements over the past 30 years suggest that waves are getting slightly higher in the Southern Ocean, and climate models suggest that this may continue. As the tropics continue to expand with climate change, the band of westerly winds over the Southern Ocean will retreat further south and strengthen, whipping up higher waves that will travel to Australia’s southern coast as swell. On the other hand, weakening winds nearer to Australia may help to dampen down wave heights. On Australia’s eastern coast, climate models suggest fewer large wave events due to decreasing storminess in the Tasman Sea in the future. 
A significant challenge we face is not having the data available to monitor the changes along our southern coastline. Australia has the longest east-west continental shelf in the world, but we have only a handful of wave buoys to measure these processes; much of the coastline is not monitored despite widespread coastal management concerns.
Our understanding of extreme sea-level change in Australia is also limited by available tide gauge coverage. Only two digital tide gauge records (in Fremantle and Fort Denison) extend back to at least the early 20th century, and records elsewhere around the coast typically span less than 50 years. 
However, our investigation discovered that there is an opportunity to increase the length of available records by digitising old paper tide gauge charts. This could extend several records along our southern and tropical coastlines.
We also have major gaps in our knowledge about how our coastlines will be changed by flooding and erosion. The simple methods used to predict coastal erosion may underestimate erosion significantly, particularly in estuaries. 
Given the considerable urban infrastructure located within estuaries, and the fact that they are vulnerable both to coastal storms and river floods, this is one of the many crucial questions about life on the coast that we still need to answer.
Kathleen McInnes is senior research scientist, CSIRO and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kathleen-mcinnes-303453" target="_blank">here</a>.
Mark Hemer is senior research scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-hemer-302723" target="_blank">here</a>.
Ron Hoeke is littoral oceanographer, CSIRO and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ron-hoeke-315391" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Hurt by sea: how storm surges and sea-level rise make coastal life risky

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The wild storms that lashed eastern Australia earlier this year damaged property and eroded beaches, causing millions of dollars' worth of damage.
As sea levels rise, the impact of storms will threaten more and more homes, businesses and services along the coastline.
CSIRO projections suggest that seas may rise by as much 82cm by the end of the century. When added to high tides, and with the influence of winds and associated storms, this can mean inundation by waters as high as a couple of metres.
As a community, we have to start deciding what must be protected, and how and when; where we will let nature take its course; how and if we need to modify the way we live and work near the coast; and so on. Many of these decisions fall largely to local governments.
We have launched a website to help local councils and Australians prepare for a climate change future. CoastAdapt lets you find maps of your local area under future sea-level scenarios, read case studies, and make adaptation plans.
<h2>How will sea-level rise affect you?</h2>
Using sea-level rise modelling from John Church and his team at CSIRO, CoastAdapt provides sea-level projections for four greenhouse gas scenarios, for individual local government areas. This also provides a set of inundation maps for the selected local government area.
<h4><a href="/images/2016/08/30/image-20160826-11176-120dovl.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<img src="/images/2016/08/30/image-20160826-11176-120dovl.png" alt="">
<h4>
Sydney’s possible sea level in 2100 under a worst-case scenario. Inundated areas shown in pale blue. NCCARF
</h4>
The inundation maps (developed by the Cooperative Research Centre for Spatial Information) show the average projected sea-level rise for a particular climate change scenario, combined with the highest tide. The method provides an approximation of where flooding may occur.
Because water is simply filled onto the map according to elevation, it doesn’t account for things like estuary shapes and water movement, the behaviour of waves and so on.
<a href="/images/2016/08/30/image-20160826-11170-15t7h38.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/30/image-20160826-11170-15t7h38.jpg" alt="">
<h4>
Brisbane’s possible sea level in 2100 under a worst-case scenario. Inundated areas shown in pale blue. NCCARF
</h4>
But both the maps and the sea-level projections are a useful way to start thinking about where risks may lie in any given local government area.
CoastAdapt also looks at what we know about coastal processes in the present day. Understanding these characteristics helps us understand where and why the coast is vulnerable to inundation and erosion.
For instance, sandy coasts are much more vulnerable to erosion than rocky coasts. The information will help decision-makers understand the behaviour of their coasts and their susceptibility to erosion under sea-level rise.
<h4><a href="/images/2016/08/30/image-20160826-11160-1wt2v2r.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<img src="/images/2016/08/30/image-20160826-11160-1wt2v2r.png" alt="">
<h4>
Darwin’s possible sea level in 2100 under a worst-case scenario. Inundated areas shown in pale blue. NCCARF
</h4>
<h2>Local councils already adapting</h2>
Adaptation is already happening on the ground around Australian local councils. We have highlighted several of these on CoastAdapt.
In the small seaside town of Port Fairy in southeast Victoria, for example, an active community group is monitoring the accelerated erosion of dunes on one of their beaches. The council and community have worked together to prioritise protecting dune areas with decommissioned landfill to prevent this rubbish tip being exposed to the beach.
<div class="fluid-width-video-wrapper"> </div>
Other councils have already undertaken the process of assessing their risks and drafting adaptation plans.
Low-lying areas in the City of Lake Macquarie already experience occasional flooding from high seas. This is expected to become more common and more severe.
Lake Macquarie Council has successfully worked with the local community to come up with 39 possible management actions, which the community then assessed against social, economic and environmental criteria. The area now has a strategy for dealing with current flooding and for gradually building protection for future sea-level rise.
This approach has engaged community members and given them the opportunity to help decide the future of their community.
<h4><a href="/images/2016/08/30/image-20160826-11170-tz5wgk.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></h4>
<img src="/images/2016/08/30/image-20160826-11170-tz5wgk.png" alt="">
<h4>
Melbourne’s possible sea level in 2100 under a worst-case scenario. Inundated areas shown in pale blue. NCCARF
</h4>
<h2>Getting prepared</h2>
What stumps councils and other coastal decision-makers is the scale and complexity of the problem. Each decision-maker needs to have some sense of the risk of future climate change to their interests, then develop plans that will help them to cope or adapt to these risks. Planners and adaptors must navigate uncertainty in where, when and how much change they must consider, and how these changes interact with other issues that must be managed.
To better understand the risk, decision-makers need access to timely, authoritative advice presented in ways and levels that are useful for their needs. This is particularly true for an issue such as climate science, which is technically complex.
Climate projections, particularly at the local level, come with a level of certainty and probability. The further we look into the future, the more extraneous factors are unknown – for example, will global policy succeed in bringing down greenhouse emissions? Or will these keep increasing, which will necessitate planning for worst-case scenarios?
Add to this the questions around legal risk, financing adaptation measures, accommodating community views and so on, and the task is daunting.
That’s the thinking behind CoastAdapt – the first national attempt to create a platform that brings together a range of data, tools and research that have been developing and growing over the last decade. As well as maps and case studies, we’ve also built an adaptation planning framework (Coastal Climate Adaptation Decision Support) and set up an online forum for people to ask questions, exchange ideas and even pose questions to our panel of experts.
Sarah Boulter is research fellow, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sarah-boulter-16628" target="_blank">here</a>.
The author would like to acknowledge the work of staff of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. CoastAdapt is in beta version and is <a href="https://www.nccarf.edu.au/CoastAdapt-beta-release" target="_blank">seeking feedback</a>. The final version will be released in early 2017.
</body></html>

Coastal councils are already adapting to rising seas 

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Eastern Australia’s wild weather has left coastal homes teetering on the brink of collapse, and has eroded beaches by up to 50m in parts of Sydney.
Now the attention turns to the clean-up. There are several legal issues for owners of damaged properties, particularly the question of if and how they can be compensated.
While the recent events cannot be attributed directly to climate change, they are certainly consistent with a warming world. Our institutions are ill-prepared for a potential increase in the frequency and severity of such events.
<h2>Insurance</h2>
Unfortunately, the success of insurance claims for damaged homes in Sydney will depend entirely on the terms of their policies. Some policies don’t cover erosion at all. Some policies only cover it if it occurs within a certain proximity of another insured event (for example, within 48 hours of a named storm event). Some policies also comprehensively exclude coverage for damage caused by actions of the sea.
What’s more, while insurance will cover damage to buildings, policies do not extend to cover damage to or loss of land. This is especially problematic in the case of damage caused by waves and storms, because erosion will often result in loss of land.
Under the traditional law doctrine, where land is lost to erosion, the Crown automatically gains title to the inundated land, without any obligation to pay compensation. So even if a home-owner is insured, they may find themselves with no land to rebuild on.
<h2>Legal proceedings</h2>
Another potential avenue for home-owners to pursue is proceedings against the relevant local government for negligent approval of development. The success of this type of proceeding is highly speculative – much will hinge upon when the development was approved and how much information on the coastal hazards was available at that time.
Where development was approved decades ago, it may be difficult to prove that a local government was negligent, because of the limited state of knowledge at the time. In the case of more recent development approvals, there may be an argument that a local government had a high level of knowledge of the risk and control of risk information. These are the type of factors a court will look at in assessing negligence.
On the flip side, a court may also find that a landholder knew of and accepted the risk. Negligence proceedings are by no means a guaranteed avenue for landholders to recoup their loss, but are an avenue that Collaroy landholders may be able to explore.
<h2>Disaster assistance</h2>
Where insurance is not available, and there are no strict legal rights against government, landholders may request disaster relief or assistance from government.
Despite the lack of any legal compulsion to do so, Australian governments have a long history of providing disaster relief to citizens when an extreme weather event causes property damage.
A recent Productivity Commission report estimated that, over the past decade, the federal government spent A$8 billion on post-disaster relief and recovery. State governments spent a further A$5.6 billion.
However, the availability and amount of a payment are not guaranteed. This may depend upon the number of other claims for assistance, and any other demands on government resources. A claim for disaster relief from government may be an option for Collaroy landholders, but many other home-owners are also affected by flooding due to the recent extreme weather – and so potentially there are many other requests for relief.
<h2>What should we learn from this event for the future?</h2>
While the pictures of houses being lost to the sea in Collaroy are confronting, these images may become more commonplace. The most recent scientific report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that, under a business-as-usual scenario, a global sea-level rise in the range of 0.53-0.97m by 2100 is likely.
Even if emissions are immediately reduced, a global sea-level rise of 0.28-0.60m by 2100 is still possible. This will be especially problematic in Australia, with an estimated 711,000 residential addresses located within 3km of the shore and less than 6m above sea level – not to mention the billions of dollars' worth of government infrastructure also located in these regions.
As sea levels rise, some properties may be permanently inundated. Others may be hit by storm surge impacts or erosion, which may be exacerbated by sea-level rise.
If these events continue to attract disaster relief, the financial burden will become too great for governments to bear. Furthermore, government disaster assistance does not solve the more intractable problem of land being lost to the sea.
The pictures from Collaroy should therefore prompt a discussion about how we, as a society, can deal with the potential impacts of coastal hazards on existing developments.
This is a challenging question to answer, but there is an opportunity to address it in a planned and co-ordinated fashion.
Justine Bell-James is lecturer in law, The University of Queensland and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justine-bell-james-39245" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

Coastal Erosion

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Coastal Erosion

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.