Is Melbourne the city of opportunity in the property market?

After several challenging years, Melbourne is once again a city on the rise. For the last three years, when anyone interstate asked about Melbourne’s off the plan apartment market, the answer was always difficult. The short version? Not great. The longer version only raised more questions than it answered.

The roots of the downturn can be traced back to the start of the pandemic. At the end of 2020, Melbourne was the second most expensive capital city in Australia, a position it had held for decades. But while COVID-19 triggered a property boom in nearly every other capital, Melbourne lagged behind. Many blame the local government's handling of lockdowns, which stalled any real market momentum.

Then came the Reserve Bank’s aggressive rate hikes, taking interest rates from historic lows to 10-year highs within just 18 months. Other cities powered through thanks to their resilience during the pandemic, but for Melbo​urne, it was another blow.

The third hit came in the form of increased land tax, including new flat-rate charges and additional levies. Holding property became less viable for investors, especially with higher mortgage repayments. Many sold off their assets, flooding the market with investor-grade stock and pushing prices even lower.

Melbo​urne needed a turning point. That came in early 2025, when the long-awaited RBA easing cycle finally began, later than many economists had predicted, but still significant.

Despite the downturn, Melbou​rne’s fundamentals remained strong. One of the key growth drivers is supply versus demand, and the balance has shifted dramatically. According to Charter Keck Cramer, only 4,800 apartments were completed in Melbo​urne last year—a 36% drop from 2023, and less than half the 10,000 completed in Sydney. Only 6,320 apartments are currently under construction, compared to 21,550 in Sydney.

At the same time, Melbo​urne is expected to be the fastest-growing capital city over the medium to long term, with forecasts of more than 100,000 people moving to the city annually until 2029. With supply far below demand, price growth becomes inevitable.

So why haven’t prices already surged?

It’s not just buyers who’ve been impacted, developers have, too. Build costs have risen sharply, with labour and materials up around 40%. Land prices have also increased, along with holding costs. Higher costs mean higher sale prices. Developers aren’t charities, they’re not going to take the risk and lose money.

This created a stalemate: buyers couldn't afford the new prices, and developers couldn’t lower them. But 2025 has brought renewed optimism. Property values are now climbing in both the unit and house markets. Clearance rates have lifted into the mid-60s to low-70s—up from the low-to-mid 50s just last year.

With falling interest rates, buyers can now borrow more, while developers are feeling more confident thanks to stronger sentiment and stabilising build costs—though prices are unlikely to drop.

The future remains uncertain, but there’s a lot to like about Melbo​urne’s current position. The market has clearly bottomed out. We’ll inevitably be proved right or wrong, however it feels like this is arguably the best opportunity to buy in Melbourne—a city with significant business, large infrastructure projects all over the city, and a nightlife culture unrivalled anywhere in Australia.