InvestingRBA misreading recent house price direction: SQM Research director Louis ChristopherRBA misreading recent house price direction: SQM Research director Louis Christopher
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher has suggested the RBA has been misreading recent house price direction.
The claim comes after the Reserve Bank minutes from its April board meeting note that house prices had shown some signs of stabilising, with auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne having picked up.
Christopher told Australian Broker Online that he was "deeply concerned" by the RBA's conclusions.
"Let me tell you now, house prices have not stabilised,” Christopher said.
“In many parts of the country, they are still falling. And auction clearance rates are weaker than recorded this time last year," he said.
Christopher said a recent uplift in clearance rates was seasonal.
"The RBA should typically know this, and yet are still suggesting that there is stabilisation in the market. Well, not for Melbourne, and not for Sydney, and not for Canberra, and not for Hobart, and there are still some question marks on Brisbane and there are still no signs of the Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast coming out of their property crash," he said.
Perth and Darwin, Christopher suggested, are the only cities to have experienced a "genuine bottoming out".
The RBA's April minutes followed very similiar acknowledgments in both its February and March announcements that it was of the view that housing prices had shown some signs of stabilising at the end of 2011, after having declined for most of 2011.
Tim Lawless, RP Data national research director, says at a macro level, housing market conditions have moved towards stability.
"And in fact, over the March quarter dwelling values showed absolutely no movement, which was the strongest result in a year.
"There are specific markets that do remain soft, however in most of these locations we have seen the rate of decline improving.
"Our key vendor metrics are also showing some improvement with selling time and vendor discounting levels both showing an improving trend," Lawless notes.
