Spring selling superlatives mask the shift away from auction

"Spring auction cheer; Spring property's pot of gold; Spring tipped to mark rebirth of seller market: Spring into auction; Spring suprise for Sydney vendors; Market's on a spring roll."

Making any celebratory spring forecast after the first day's results is not something I'll emulate. Best left to the Fairfax real estate scribes.

Yes the weekend results were good – at around 62% in Melbourne and 64% in Sydney – but let's await the results of deeper spring before claiming such successes.

But its actually highly likely that many home vendors will give the traditional spring auction scene a bit of a miss in favour of private sales or staying put.

There are some interesting statistics showing Melbourne's had 3,800 fewer auctions this year than at the same time last year.

Real Estate Institute of Victoria spokesman Robert Larocca has suggested its not so surprising shift in the way Melbourne houses were being sold.

"Due to the lower level of demand, more sellers and their estate agents are choosing to sell by private sale this year,'' he suggests.

There have been about 15,876 auction listings this year, compared with the 19,686 listings in the year to August 2011 and the 21,532 in the year to August 2010, according to the REIV.

So a 19% drop in auction listings so far this year.

In Sydney the auction listings pattern is similiar, but not as pronounced given there's a hint of market recovery. 

Sydney auctions in the year to August stood at 13,236, according to Australian Property Monitors senior economist Dr Andrew Wilson, compared with 15,164 in the same eight-month period in 2011.

It reflects around a 12% decline. It was 15,858 in the 2010 period, says Wilson, who describes the weekend results as "encouraging" while acknowledging that the true test of spring vendor success comes later. Wilson says while last spring was flat due to an "affordability hangover" the next few months ought to be the best in several years. Presumably in part because unlike last year, this spring is starting with a shortfall in fresh listings. There are a high number of houses and units for sale, but many have been on the market for a long time and new listings are scarce.

The interesting spring challenge  for estate agents therefore is making the right marketing recommendation for their vendors that best reflects their clients' best interest.

“The shift highlights the importance of sellers working with their estate agents to select the best sales method for their home, it really does differ depending on your home and its location,"  says Larocca.

All this is against the overall backdrop of more people actually staying put, amid concerns about falling house prices, higher taxes, job security and the global economic conditions.

The REIV data suggest auction sales volumes in 2012 and 2011 are at a low point when compared with every year since 2000.

The institute forecast just 20% of property sold this year could be at auction – down on the 24% on the same time in 2010 and 29% on 2009.

"This is not surprising, and it is a trend repeated whenever Melbourne has a flat year,'' Larocca says.

Melbourne's auction clearance rate so far this year at 61% – nothing wrong with that really except for bootime historical constrast like the 83% auction clearance rate in the first eight months of 2009.

Sydney's overall clearance rate this year has been 53.9% according to APM, marginally lower than 2011's 54.5%, but still some way off the 64% success rates of 2009 and 2010.

No selling season is ever the same, and despite the subdued circumstances this spring, I'd still suggest we won't be spared from all those Super Saturday superlatives. Some things never change.