<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose 1.8% in April according to CoreLogic and are up 6.4% on a year ago.

This is their seventh monthly gain in a row.

While down from the break neck pace of 2.8% seen in April, price growth is still strong and average capital city prices are now 5.4% above their September 2017 record high.

All capital cities saw prices rise solidly in April with Darwin the strongest at +2.7%, followed by Sydney at +2.4% and Adelaide at +2%. See the table below.

All capital city prices are at record levels except for Perth and Darwin which are recovering from 22% and 33% falls respectively between 2014 and 2020, which was in the aftermath of the mining investment boom.

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Regional dwelling prices rose 1.9% in April and are up 13% on a year ago with their relative strength over the last year reflecting lower levels of indebtedness and hence less vulnerability to the financial stresses caused by the pandemic driven economic downturn, less exposure to the slump in immigration and increased buyer interest as people seek to relocate from cities as part of a secular trend towards working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle.

Capital city house prices rose 2% in April and 8% over the last 12 months whereas unit prices lagged with a 1.2% gain in the month and a 1.8% rise on a year ago, with the relative underperformance reflecting a shift in preferences towards houses as a result of more working from home and a lifestyle choice and as weak rental conditions made worse by the slump in immigration constrained the inner city unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne. However, the Sydney and&nbsp;

Melbourne unit rental markets have shown signs of stabilisation and improvement in recent months and this appears to be helping unit prices, although they are still lagging.

The slowdown in price growth compared to March was inevitable given that the 2.8% average gain that month was the strongest since October 1988 and was always going to be hard to beat. Moreover, the moderation is also consistent with some pick up in new listings which has seen auction clearances slow a bit from March, some easing in the impact of government incentives and perhaps some of the initial boost from four year fixed mortgage rates below 2% having run its course.

However, average home gains of 1.8% a month are still very strong, housing finance commitments remain around record highs suggesting more demand to come and auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne remain very high and at levels consistent with strong home price growth. While first home buyers led the initial recovery, spurred on by various incentives, housing finance data suggests that first home buyer demand may now have peaked but that investors are now jumping in to take over from first home buyers and that demand from owner occupiers generally remains very strong.

The fundamentals of still ultra-low mortgage rates, ongoing government incentives, economic recovery, the strong jobs market and an element of FOMO (buying now for fear of missing out) point to further home price increases ahead. We expect average home prices to rise another 10 to 15% out to the end of 2022, but this to mask a slowing from 15% this year(of which they have already done 7.5%) to 5% next year. 2023 could start to see another cyclical downturn in property prices as the interest rate cycle starts to move up more decisively.

There are six reasons to expect a gradual slowing in the pace of capital city dwelling gains going forwards:

First, government housing incentives are likely to be wound back a bit. The First Home Loan Deposit scheme is likely to see home price thresholds increased in the Budget, but HomeBuilder has now ended and some states may start to wind back various incentives.

Second, poor affordability is starting to become an increasing constraint again and is likely already starting to weigh on first home buyer demand going by housing finance data.

Third, the RBA and APRA are expected to reach yet again for macro prudential controls to slow housing lending sometime in the next six months. While they don&rsquo;t target house prices and are of the view that we have not yet seen a significant&nbsp;deterioration in lending standards, past experience indicates that surging house prices leads to a deterioration in lending standards and increasing financial stability risks. And the metrics APRA and the RBA look at are starting to push up in the direction of a deterioration in lending standards with record housing finance, an acceleration in housing debt (see the next chart), an increasing share of lending at high loan to valuation ratios and a rising share of interest only loans albeit from a low base. The first thing to do would be to increase interest rate buffers but limits on high loan to valuation ratio lending and high debt to income ratio lending may make sense too.

Fourth, it&rsquo;s likely that the 30 year tailwind for the property market of falling interest rates has now run its course. While variable rate hikes are probably two years away at least, four year plus fixed mortgage rates have started to move up with the rise in bond yields and shorter dated fixed mortgage rates may also start to move up over the next year. Longer term the RBA is more determined than ever to see inflation sustained in its target range which will ultimately put an end to the long term downtrend in interest rates and mean higher variable rates.

Fifth, the hit to immigration and a likely only gradual recovery in it once international borders are reopened combined with continued strong home building is likely to lead to an oversupply of property in the next few years.

Finally, the &ldquo;escape from the city&rdquo; phenomenon unleased by the pandemic and made possible by technology enabling more working from home compared to prior to the pandemic is likely to take some further pressure off capital city property prices &ndash; albeit this will drive a further catch up in regional prices.

The “escape from the city” phenomenon unleased by the pandemic and made possible by technology enabling more working from home compared to prior to the pandemic is likely to take some further pressure off capital city property prices

soliver

6 reasons to expect a gradual slowing in the pace of capital city dwelling gains: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose a whopping 2.8% in March according to CoreLogic and are up 4.8% on a year ago. This is their seventh monthly gain in a row and their fastest monthly rise since October 1988 and they have now surpassed their September 2017 record high by 3.5%.

Sydney dwelling prices rose a very strong 3.7%, which is their faster since August 1988, and they have now surpassed their July 2017 record high.

Melbourne prices also rose 2.4% and have now surpassed their November 2017 record high.

Prices in other cities were all up strongly led by Hobart with prices up 3.3% in March, followed by Canberra up 2.8%, Darwin up 2.3%, Brisbane up 2.4%, Perth up 1.8% and Adelaide up 1.5%. Prices in Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide are all at record highs.

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Regional dwelling prices rose 2.5% in March and are up 11.4% on a year ago with their relative strength over the last year reflecting lower levels of indebtedness and hence less vulnerability to the financial stresses caused by the pandemic driven economic downturn, less exposure to the slump in immigration and increased buyer interest as people seek to relocate from cities as part of a secular trend towards working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle.

Capital city house prices rose 3.1% in March and 6% over the last 12 months whereas unit prices lagged with a 1.9% gain in the month and 1.1% rise on a year ago, with the relative underperformance reflecting an ongoing shift in preferences towards houses as a result of more working from home and a lifestyle choice and as weak rental conditions made worse by the slump in immigration constrained the inner city unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne.

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Over the last 12 months unit rents fell -3.8% compared to a 5.2% in house rents, with the weakness in unit rents concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne. However, the Sydney and Melbourne unit rental markets have shown signs of stabilisation and improvement in recent months.

The strength in home prices is consistent with other data showing a booming property market including record new housing finance commitments over recent months, surging home sales and record or near record auction clearance rates.

Clearance rates are now at levels consistent with 15% to 20% annual price gains in Sydney and Melbourne!

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So why is the property market back to booming?

The property market has seen a huge turnaround from expectations of a year ago for sharp falls in home prices as a result of the pandemic driven lockdowns. Capital city home prices did fall nearly 3% around mid-last year (led by Melbourne), but the fall was brief as the government policy response intervened to protect the housing market from the recession and to push prices higher. Basically the combination of ultra-low mortgage rates, multiple government home buyer incentives, economic recovery, the strengthening jobs market and now an increasing element of FOMO (buying now for fear of missing out) combined initially with low listings are driving prices sharply higher. The pandemic driven desire to “escape from the city” also appears to be pushing up suburban house prices and regional prices up at a faster rate than its depressing inner city unit prices in Sydney and Melbourne.

While first home buyers led the initial recovery, spurred on by various incentives, owner occupiers have followed and now investors appear to be starting to jump in too.

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Average capital city dwelling prices have now surpassed their September 2017 boom time high by 3.5% with Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and now Sydney and Melbourne along with average regional prices all at clear record highs. Perth and Darwin remain well down on their 2014 mining boom highs, but are now recovering rapidly.  

Outlook

With variable mortgage rates set to remain ultra-low for the next few years average prices are expected to rise another 15-20% or so over the next 18 months to two years.

However, the pace of increase is likely to slow through 2021-22.

First, government housing incentives are likely to be sharply curtailed in the months ahead with HomeBuilder ending, the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme tapped out and some states may start to wind back various incentives.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=24323]

Second, in the absence of an ability to raise interest rates, the RBA and APRA are expected to reach yet again for macro prudential controls to slow housing lending. While they don’t target house prices and are of the view that we have not yet seen a significant deterioration in lending standards on the metrics they look at, past experience indicates that surging house prices leads to a deterioration in lending standards and increasing financial stability risks. And the metrics APRA and the RBA look at are starting to push up in the direction of a deterioration in lending standards with record housing finance pointing to an acceleration in housing debt, an increasing share of lending at high loan to valuation ratios and a rising share of interest only loans albeit from a low base. All of which suggests that it will make sense to start tapping the lending standards brake soon. The first thing to do would be to increase interest rate buffers but limits on high loan to valuation ratio lending and high debt to income ratio lending may make sense too.

Thirdly, the recovery in immigration once the international borders are reopened is likely to be gradual and if so this will allow for years of property undersupply to give way to oversupply which is the best way to take pressure off house prices.

Fourth, it’s likely that the 30 year tailwind for the property market of falling interest rates has now run its course. Four year plus fixed rate mortgage rates look to have bottomed and the RBA seems more determined than ever to see inflation sustained in its target range which will ultimately put an end to the long term downtrend in interest rates.

Fifth, poor affordability will start to become an increasing constraint again if it’s not already.

Finally, government policy should further encourage the shift away from city living as unleashed by the pandemic and working from home as a way to take pressure off capital city property prices. This remains to be seen though. 
The ending of JobKeeper and the expiration of home loan deferrals may also act as a dampener to the extent that they may boost forced sales but in the absence of a significant new coronavirus driven lockdown the impact is likely to be marginal. Actual net job losses from the ending of JobKeeper are likely to be low and the proportion by value of home mortgages on payment holidays has collapsed from 11% in May to below 2%.
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Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose a whopping 2.8% in March according to CoreLogic and are up 4.8% on a year ago

Australian capital city home prices surge 2.8% in March, their fastest since 1988: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose 2% in February according to CoreLogic and are up 2.6% on a year ago. This is their fastest monthly gain since 2003 and they have now surpassed their September 2017 record high by 0.7%.

Sydney dwelling prices rose a very strong 2.5%, resulting in five months of gains, and are up 2.8% on a year ago. Melbourne prices also rose 2.1%, resulting in four months of gains, but are down -1.3% on a year ago reflecting a -5.6% fall around mid-2020 through the various lockdowns.

Prices in other cities were all up strongly led by Hobart with prices up 2.5% in February and 8.7% through the year, followed by Canberra up 1.9%, Brisbane and Perth both up 1.5%, Adelaide up 0.8% and Darwin up 0.7%. Prices in Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide are all at record highs.

<img alt="" height="794" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/surging_house_prices_oliver.jpg" width="1200">

Regional dwelling prices rose 2.1% in February and 9.4% on a year ago with their relative strength reflecting lower levels of indebtedness and hence less vulnerability to the financial stresses caused by the pandemic driven economic downturn, less exposure to the slump in immigration and increased buyer interest as people seek to relocate from cities as part of a secular trend towards working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle.

Capital city house prices rose 2.3% in February and 3.6% over the last 12 months whereas unit prices lagged with a 1.1% gain in the month and a -0.1% fall on a year ago, with the relative underperformance likely reflecting an ongoing shift in lifestyle preferences towards houses as a result of more working from home and a lifestyle choice and as weak rental conditions made worse by the slump in immigration constrain the inner city unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last 12 months unit rents fell -8.0% in Melbourne and -5.3% in Sydney, although there were further signs of stabilisation in February.

The strength in home prices is consistent with the surge in new housing finance commitments over recent months. This rose another 10.5% in January and is now up 44.3% from a year ago. First home buyer finance surged 10.1%mom - and is up a whopping 73% on a year ago - to a new record high although with owner occupier ex first home buyer finance up an even stronger 11.3%, the first home buyer share of new loans slipped from a record 25% to 24.9%. Investor finance is now also surging and rose 9.4%. The ongoing strength in finance commitments points to more solid house price gains in the months ahead although January’s 2% capital city rise may be hard to beat.

Auction clearances are now very strong and sales are running around pre coronavirus levels, although listings are still relatively low. Clearance rates are at levels consistent with 15% or so annual price gains!

What’s driving the surge in home prices?

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, government incentives, the removal of responsible lending obligations, record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" and relatively low property listings are all helping to push prices higher with an element of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out” creeping in too. This is after bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from the pandemic recession. The combination has more than offset the impact of weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and has brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers, with investors now starting to jump in too.

Average capital city dwelling prices have now surpassed their September 2017 high, although this masks a wide divergence with: clear record highs in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Sydney and Melbourne still down just over 1% from their 2017 highs; and Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs.  

<img alt="" height="806" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/average_prices_record_high_oliver.jpg" width="1200">

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to rise another 5% to 10% this year and next being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and the recovery in the jobs market but the stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely constrain price gains in inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see relatively stronger gains in 2021.

The phasing down of government incentives and exhaustion of first home buyers will likely see first home buyer demand as a share of housing finance and overall demand peak in the months ahead but they will likely be replaced by rebounding investor demand. Possible increases in 4 year plus fixed rate mortgage rates flowing from the recent surge in bond yields will act as a bit of a dampener but likely only enough to see price growth settle around a 5-10% annual pace.

Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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The strength in home prices is consistent with the surge in new housing finance commitments over recent months

Housing finance commitments surged another 10.5% to start 2021: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER

After a 2.8% dip around mid-last year in response to the pandemic, average capital city home prices are rising again.

<img alt="" height="649" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/shane_oliver_chart_1.jpg" width="1200">

Put simply - record low mortgage rates, multiple government home buyer incentives, government income support measures, pent up demand from the lockdowns, bank mortgage payment holidays, activity associated with a desire to “escape from the city” and an emerging element of FOMO (fear of missing out) have swamped the negative impact of higher unemployment, a collapse in immigration and weak rental markets in Sydney and Melbourne.

So, we are in yet another cyclical upswing in property prices. So, where to from here? But first to provide some perspective, there are seven key things worth bearing in mind regarding the Australian property market.

<h2>First – it remains expensive</h2>

According to the 2020 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey, the median multiple of house prices to income is 5.9 times in Australia versus 3.6 in the US and 4.5 in the UK. In Sydney, it’s 11 times and Melbourne is 9.5 times.

The ratios of house prices to incomes and rents versus their long-term averages are at the high end of OECD countries – all of which have low interest rates too! See the next chart.

The surge in prices relative to incomes has seen the ratio of household debt to income rise 5-fold over the last 30 years, taking it from the low end of OECD countries to the high end.

<img alt="" height="748" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/shane_oliver_chart_2.jpg" width="1200">

<h2>Second – house prices go up and down</h2>

A common property myth is that prices only ever go up. But this is not so. Real Sydney house prices (ie, after inflation) fell 36% in 1934-35, 32% in 1937-41, 41% in 1942-43, 12% in 1947-48, 14% in 1951-53, 12% in 1961-62 and 22% in 1974-77. In nominal terms based on CoreLogic data, Sydney dwelling prices fell 25% in 1980-83, 10% in 1989-91, 8% in 2004-06, 7% in 2008-09, 3% in 2011-12, 3% in 2015-16 and 15% in 2017-19.

<h2>Third – talk of mortgage stress remains overstated</h2>

There is no denying housing affordability is poor, debt is high and some households are suffering significant mortgage stress. But most borrowers appear to be able to service their mortgages. The share by value of housing loans on bank payment holidays has collapsed from 11% in May to just 2.4% in December. And the collapse in mortgage rates – that has seen household interest payments as a share of income fall to their lowest since the mid-1980s – has helped.

<img alt="" height="762" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/shane_oliver_chart_3.jpg" width="1200">

In the absence of an unexpected renewed economic downturn, it’s hard to see much rise in distressed sales. It’s also easy to see from this chart, when combined with home buyer incentives, why home borrowing and buying is surging again.

<h2>Fourth – the Australian property market has been in a long-term bull market since the mid-1990s</h2>

Looking back over the last 100 years, the first long term boom was in the 1920s and ended with the Depression and WW2. This was followed by the post war immigration boom that ended with high rates in the 1970s. The latest long-term boom started in the mid- 1990s. The key drivers of this boom have been easier access to debt and the shift from high to low interest rates (with mortgage rates dropping from around 17% in the late 1980s to around 2-4% now) which allowed Australians to pay each other more for property and from about 15 years ago a chronic undersupply of property. The latter can be seen in the next chart.

<img alt="" height="701" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/shane_oliver_chart_4.jpg" width="1200">

Annual population growth surged from around 2005 but the supply of dwellings did not start to catch up until around 2015, which led to a chronic undersupply of housing. This combined with low interest rates and easier access to debt explains why Australian housing went from cheap to expensive and stayed there over the last 25 years. Other countries have had low rates and tax breaks for property but far cheaper property because it’s been better supplied.

<h2>Fifth – we may be getter closer to the end of the long- term bull market in property</h2>

It may still have a way to go, but the two key drivers of the long- term property boom may be getting close to the end. First, interest rates are at or close to the bottom with the RBA now resorting to extreme measures to get inflation back up – which should ultimately mean higher interest rates. Second, the chronic under supply of property may be starting to fade thanks to the unit building boom since 2015, the hit to immigration and home building incentives which are likely to keep home building high for the next 12 months. As evident in the last chart, supply is likely to remain strong this year and next, but population growth has collapsed &amp; could take years to recover. This may take some pressure off house prices on a 3-5 year view.

<h2>Sixth – “escape from the city” will have a big impact</h2>

The pandemic has seen a profound shift in how office workers do work. In particular, the work from home phenomenon is likely to remain, albeit not five days a week for all. This means less need to live close to work and a greater focus on lifestyle, which means greater demand for houses relative to units and in outer suburbs, smaller cities and regional areas.

<h2>Finally – the national property market is highly diverse</h2>

While it’s common to refer to “the Australian property market,” in reality there is significant divergence between cities. This was clearly evident over the last decade with Sydney and Melbourne booming up until 2017, Perth and Darwin falling sharply after the mining boom and the other capital cities and regional property generally seeing modest gains. See the next chart. Right now, Perth and Darwin are only just starting to recover and there is potential for Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and regional dwelling prices to play catch up to Sydney and Melbourne. The surge in immigration played a big role in the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and this is now going into reverse as other cities and regional centres are benefitting from the “escape from the city” phenomenon.

<img alt="" height="636" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/shane_oliver_chart_5.jpg" width="1200">

The divergence is also evident in residential vacancy rates that have been rising in Sydney and Melbourne, reflecting increased unit supply and the collapse in immigration, but falling in other cities. This in turn points to upwards pressure on rents and property values in other cities relative to Sydney &amp; Melbourne.

<img alt="" height="714" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/shane_oliver_chart_6.jpg" width="1200">

<h2>So where to now for residential property prices?</h2>

Australian home prices are likely to continue rising over the next two years thanks to record low mortgage rates and the recovery in the economy, with the latter offsetting the phasing down of income support measures and bank payment holidays. Housing finance is running around record levels and auction clearance rates are at levels consistent with strong price gains.

As a result, average capital city home prices are expected to rise by 5-10% this year and next. While first home buyer incentives are likely to be reduced, investor interest is expected to pick up and fill the gap.

However, the outlook is divergent. The hit to immigration is likely to constrain inner city Sydney and Melbourne as well as unit demand but outer suburban areas, houses, the smaller cities and regional property are all likely to see strong price gains helped along by the “escape from the city” phenomenon and less exposure to immigration. Expect average price gains of around 10% in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin in addition to regional areas.

The broader economy is unlikely to justify rate hikes until around 2023, but if the property market continues to hot up as expected, causing financial stability concerns for the RBA, a tightening in lending standards is likely next year which should start to slow things down and eventually the bottoming of the long-term interest rate cycle and the shift to oversupply may take pressure off prices, but that’s a while off yet.

Dr Shane Oliver 
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital

 

 
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After a 2.8% dip around mid-last year in response to the pandemic, average capital city home prices are rising again.

Seven things to bear in mind about the Australian property market as prices swing upwards: Dr Shane Oliver

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, an avalanche of government incentives (including stamp duty concessions, various state support measures, HomeBuilder and an expansion of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme), a further easing in lending standards on the way for early this year (with the removal of responsible lending obligations), record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" helped along by ongoing bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from higher unemployment and underemployment, weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers. As a result property prices have turned up far earlier than I had been expecting and there appears to be a bit of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out”) creeping into some markets and pushing them higher.

At the current rate of increase average capital city dwelling prices will surpass their September 2017 record high by March, although this masks a wide divergence with: record highs already in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs; and Sydney and Melbourne prices having been range bound since 2017.  

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to continue to rise through 2021 being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and with the recovery in the economy expected to offset the phasing down of income support measures and bank payment holidays and some incentives. As a result average capital city home prices are expected to rise by around 5% through the year. While first home buyer incentives are likely to be reduced seeing a decline in first home buyer demand later in the year, investor interest is expected to pick up.

However, the outlook is widely divergent across cities, within cities and across units versus houses.

<img alt="" height="355" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/amp_jan_2.png" width="545">

The downside risks relate to: renewed coronavirus related lockdowns with the latest being in Perth although so far new case numbers seem to be getting kept down and vaccines should help head off this risk entirely later in the year; higher unemployment and underemployment and distressed sales as government income and bank support measures wind down although the risk on this front are rapidly diminishing; falling rents and high vacancy rates in inner city Melbourne and Sydney weighing on investors; a 100,000 per annum reduction in underlying dwelling demand flowing from the hit to immigration; and a pandemic/work from home driven “escape to the suburbs and regions” that is weighing on inner city/unit prices but pushing up outer suburban/house and regional prices.

It remains hard to see that the reversal in net immigration from around 240,000 people per annum to an expected net outflow of people this financial year (of -70,000) and next (of -20,000) won’t have a significant impact. The surge in population growth of around 150,000 people per annum taking it to around 375,000 people per annum due to higher immigration from the middle of the 2000s was the main factor explaining very expensive Australian housing over the last 15 years as the property market became chronically undersupplied. The collapse in population growth which is likely to result in a halving in underlying demand for housing this financial year and next at the same time that governments are intent on supporting housing construction via various initiatives including HomeBuilder is likely to weigh on prices at some point as chronic undersupply gives way to oversupply in some areas. Particularly with rate cuts and incentives pulling demand forward and mortgage rate reductions reaching the end of the road. This is particularly likely to weigh on unit rents and prices along with investor demand in Sydney and Melbourne.

<img alt="" height="376" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/amp_jan_1.png" width="620">

Inner city Melbourne and Sydney are the most vulnerable to the hit to immigration, but this may not become fully apparent for another six months or so. Outer suburban areas and houses in these cities are likely to continue seeing solid price gains reflecting the “escape from the city” phenomenon against a backdrop of very low mortgage rates. On average Sydney and Melbourne price gains are likely to be modest at around 2 to 3% through 2021.

Other cities and regional areas are likely to perform well reflecting lower levels of debt and less exposure to immigration and as such as likely to see rising average prices with record low mortgage rates dominating. Adelaide and Brisbane are playing catch up after years of underperformance compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is benefitting from strength in public sector employment and Perth and Darwin are starting to recover after bear markets ever since 2014 helped by the recovery in mining investment in WA. Expect average price gains of close to 10% in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and regional areas and around 5 to 7% in Canberra and Hobart.

Basically, Sydney and Melbourne lead the longer term cycle and the other cities and regional prices follow. Right now, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and average regional dwelling prices are playing catch up after underperforming Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and Perth and Darwin home prices are finally recovering from a multi-year bear market that went bust with the end of the mining investment boom. The surge in immigration played a big role in the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and this is now going into reverse.

Outer suburban houses and dwellings in regional centres are likely to perform better than inner city units in most capital cities as a continuing trend to working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle dominates.

SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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Regional home prices outpacing the capital cities in 2021: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT INSIGHT

With the deepest recession since the end of World War 2, a sharp collapse in employment in April and May and a halving in underlying population based demand for housing (as a result of the hit to immigration) it might have been expected that 2020 would have been a pretty bad year for house prices. As its turned out though the property market held up pretty well and in recent months has started to accelerate again. It certainly turned out a lot stronger than I anticipated 6-9 months ago.

Basically, the combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, an avalanche of government incentives (including stamp duty concessions, various state support measures, HomeBuilder which has now been extended to March albeit at a reduced payment and an expansion of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme), a further easing in lending standards on the way for early this year (with the removal of responsible lending obligations), record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" helped along by ongoing bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from higher unemployment and underemployment, weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers. As a result property prices turned up far earlier than I had been expecting and there appears to be a bit of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out”) creeping into some markets – particularly outside of Melbourne and Sydney.

At the current rate of increase average capital city dwelling prices will surpass their September 2017 record high by March, although this masks a wide divergence with: record highs already in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs; and Sydney and Melbourne prices having been range bound since 2017.  

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to continue to be boosted through 2021 by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives, with the recovery in the economy expected to offset the phasing down of income support measures and bank payment holidays. As a result average home prices are expected to rise by around 5% through the year.

However, the outlook is widely divergent across cities, within cities and across units versus houses.

The risks relate to: renewed coronavirus related lockdowns although so far new case numbers seem to be getting kept down and vaccines should help head off this risk entirely later in the year; higher unemployment and underemployment and distressed sales as government income and bank support measures wind down although the risk on this front are rapidly diminishing; falling rents and high vacancy rates in inner city Melbourne and Sydney weighing on investors; a 100,000 per annum reduction in underlying dwelling demand flowing from the hit to immigration; and a pandemic/work from home driven “escape to the suburbs and regions” that is weighing on inner city/unit prices but pushing up outer suburban/house and regional prices.

It remains hard to see that the reversal in net immigration from around 240,000 people per annum to an expected net outflow of people this financial year (of -70,000) and next (of -20,000) won’t have a significant impact. The surge in population growth of around 150,000 people per annum taking it to around 375,000 people per annum due to higher immigration from the middle of the 2000s was the main factor explaining very expensive Australian housing over the last 15 years as the property market became chronically undersupplied. The collapse in population growth which is likely to result in a halving in underlying demand for housing this financial year and next at the same time that governments are intent on supporting housing construction via various initiatives including HomeBuilder is likely to weigh on prices at some point as chronic undersupply gives way to oversupply in some areas. Particularly with rate cuts and incentives pulling demand forward and mortgage rate reductions reaching the end of the road. This is particularly likely to weigh on unit rents and prices along with investor demand in Sydney and Melbourne.

<img alt="image008.png@01D6B106.AC24C7A0" data-image-whitelisted="" height="376" id="m_-6478027253593781169m_-4542295210685584014_x0000_i1028" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=134db8e8c7&amp;attid=0.7&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1687916156705272432&amp;th=176caecd330f7270&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ9FtgYIq5JXDH2F_FyDfWWj9C1o7lbrwJ0rLtJRxkUsCjYI8qllivVKe1pXjUSJNWDUdLouyLHVy7qTgDDiqkj4DCVMLXl-pTuQmmupxL23y3wHb3M12fQAooA&amp;disp=emb&amp;realattid=176caec726b25664d67" tabindex="0" width="620">

Source: ABS, AMP Capital

Inner city Melbourne and Sydney are the most vulnerable to the hit to immigration, but this may not become fully apparent for another six months or so. Outer suburban areas and houses in these cities are likely to continue seeing solid price gains reflecting the “escape from the city” phenomenon against a backdrop of very low mortgage rates. On average Sydney and Melbourne price gains are likely to be modest at around 2 to 3% through 2021.

Other cities and regional areas are likely to perform well reflecting lower levels of debt and less exposure to immigration and as such as likely to see rising average prices with record low mortgage rates dominating. Adelaide and Brisbane are playing catch up after years of underperformance compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is benefitting from strength in public sector employment and Perth and Darwin are starting to recover after bear markets ever since 2014 helped by the recovery in mining investment in WA. Expect average price gains of close to 10% in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and regional areas and around 5 to 7% in Canberra and Hobart.

The next chart puts the relative performance of the capital cities into perspective by focussing on rolling 5 year price gains. Basically, Sydney and Melbourne lead the longer term cycle and the other cities follow. Right now, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra dwelling prices are playing catch up after underperforming Sydney and Melbourne through much of last decade and Perth and Darwin home prices are finally recovering from a multi-year bear market that went bust with the end of the mining investment boom. The surge in immigration played a big role in the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and this is now going into reverse.

<img data-image-whitelisted="" height="355" id="m_-6478027253593781169m_-4542295210685584014Picture_x0020_9" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=134db8e8c7&amp;attid=0.8&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1687916156705272432&amp;th=176caecd330f7270&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ_gH4A3QD-fRbFPZ5uL1acBi9UQclRFlZW5h5YkYBpGbsseFJmIcT8l9FO0gBY-fXqDo6QcHXR13csczrDC4G-2YcCyYnxgAhCDQLHlYLdwZt4SAXlNf5KFFwY&amp;disp=emb&amp;realattid=176caec726b3a898ee8" tabindex="0" width="545">

Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital

Outer suburban houses and dwellings in regional centres are likely to perform better than inner city units in most capital cities as a continuing trend to working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle dominates.

SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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At the current rate of increase average capital city dwelling prices will surpass their September 2017 record high by March

2020 property market far stronger than anticipated when the pandemic first hit: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER

2020 didn’t exactly turn out the way I or many expected a year ago. For Australia, the year started badly as severe drought had given way to the worst bushfires on record. But just as the bushfires were receding it gave way to the coronavirus pandemic. Every year has a big surprise - or what Dr Don Stammer has long called Factor X - but they don’t usually have such a profound impact as the coronavirus pandemic has.

- It caused a massive health crisis claiming at least 1.5 million lives, with many countries seeing at least two waves.

- It kept many confined to their homes and shut down big chunks of economies, driving the biggest fall in economic activity since the end of WW2 if not the Great Depression, with major economies seeing peak to trough falls in GDP of 10% to 20% and the Australian economy contracting by 7.3%. This saw unemployment surge and inflation plunge.

- Share markets had 35% or so plunges in February/March, commodity prices collapsed with the oil price going negative at one point as investors sought out safe havens like bonds.

- And it, or rather the poor management of it, lost President Trump the US election (even though he denies losing).

The pandemic also increased tensions with China and is likely to leave a longer term mark with a further set back to globalisation, more social tensions, bigger government and public debt, the risk that massive money printing eventually results in higher inflation, faster structural change due to an accelerated embrace of technology, more consumer caution and a lower population in Australia due to the hit to immigration.

However, while 2020 is a year many of us would prefer to forget and coronavirus continues to wreak havoc in much of the world, the end result for economies hasn’t been as bad as had been feared back in March and April. This reflected a combination of:

- An unprecedented and rapid fiscal stimulus that protected businesses, jobs and incomes;

- Debt forbearance schemes that headed off defaults;

- Massive monetary stimulus that saw interest rates plunge;

- Social distancing which has helped contain the virus enabling some reopening – albeit better in some countries (eg, Asia, Australia and New Zealand) than others.

This enabled economic activity to bounce back faster than expected through the second half as restrictions eased, even though it wasn’t always smooth (eg, in Victoria or in Europe and the US) and we still have a way to go to full recovery. As a result investment markets also performed far better than feared.

- While share markets plunged in March during the early stages of the pandemic, they then rebounded thanks to massive fiscal stimulus and reopening, low interest rates and bond yields that made shares cheap as well as good news on vaccines that enabled investors to look forward to further recovery in 2021.

- This all drove solid returns in global shares with Asian and US shares (which were boosted by a relatively a high exposure to IT and initially health care stocks which benefitted from the pandemic) outperforming. The more cyclical Japanese and European markets underperformed.

- Australian shares also unperformed due to the greater cyclical exposure of the Australian share market.

- Government bonds had reasonable returns as yields fell in response to central bank rate cuts and bond buying along with safe haven demand – which drove capital growth.

- Real estate investment trusts had negative returns as a result of a hit to property space demand and rents.

- It was the same story for unlisted commercial property and infrastructure, although industrial property did well.

- Home prices fell 3% around mid-year but then started to recover as low interest rates, government support measures and reopening swamped the hit to immigration, weak rental markets and higher unemployment. Houses, outer suburbs &amp; regions benefitted from “escape from the city.”

- Cash and bank term deposit returns were poor as the RBA cut the cash rate to just 0.1%.

- After a pandemic driven plunge to $US0.55 in March the $A rose reflecting higher commodity prices and a falling $US.

- Due to reasonable share returns but weak property and infrastructure returns balanced super funds have so far seen low but positive returns – but this followed a strong 2019.

<h2>2021 – recovery</h2>

Just as 2020 was dominated by the pandemic and this determined the relative performance of investment markets and stocks, 2021 is likely to be dominated by the recovery. This in turn will have a profound effect on investment markets. There are four reasons for optimism. First, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is still feeding through economies with very high saving rates indicating pent up demand that can be spent once confidence improves, which will also help offset the wind down of some support measures like JobKeeper in Australia.

Second, the news on vaccines is positive. While uncertainties remain, by end 2021 or early 2022 there is a good chance the world will be approaching a degree of herd immunity.

Third, a new US president in Joe Biden should usher in a period of more stable and expert based policy making in what is still the world’s biggest economy. In particular, it will likely head off a return to trade wars that could have wreaked havoc in 2021.

A more diplomatic US approach to resolving differences with China could also help Australia move down a path to resolving its own differences with China.

Finally, Australia along with NZ has navigated 2020 remarkably well, controlling coronavirus far better than most comparable countries and seeing its politicians and institutions work well together. It also led to structural reforms that may help future growth (eg, property tax reform in NSW, IR reform nationally).

The combination of vaccines, policy stimulus and pent up demand is expected to see a supercharged cyclical rebound in global GDP of around 5.2% and 4.5% in Australia in 2021. This is likely to see strong double-digit rebounds in profit growth.

Inflation is likely to remain weak, reflecting still high levels of spare capacity which in turn means interest rates will remain low. While this is not good for those relying on bank interest, it benefits the household sector as a whole (with debt exceeding bank deposits) &amp; corporates, eases the servicing of high public debt levels and makes shares cheap. So, in a way we remain in the sweet spot of the investment cycle with improving growth but low rates. In Australia, the cash rate is expected to end 2021 at 0.1% but there is still a risk of more quantitative easing.

<h2>Implications for investors</h2>

Shares are at risk of a short term correction after having ran up so hard recently and 2021 is likely to see a few rough patches along the way (much like we saw in 2010 after the recovery from the GFC), but looking through the inevitable short term noise, the combination of improving global growth and low interest rates augurs well for growth assets generally in 2021. In particular, we are likely to see a continuing shift in performance away from investments that benefitted from the pandemic and lockdowns - like US shares, technology and health care stocks and bonds - to investments that will benefit from recovery - like resources, industrials, tourism stocks and financials.

- Global shares are expected to return around 8%, but expect a rotation away from growth heavy US shares to more cyclical markets in Europe, Japan and emerging countries.

- Australian shares are also likely to be relative outperformers helped by better virus control, enabling a stronger recovery in the near term, stronger stimulus, sectors like resources, industrials and financials benefitting from the rebound in growth and as investors continue to drive a search for year yield benefitting the share market as dividends are increased resulting in a 4.4% grossed up dividend yield. Expect the ASX 200 to end 2021 back around 7200.

- Ultra-low yields &amp; a capital loss from a 0.5-0.75% or so rise in yields are likely to result in negative returns from bonds.

- Unlisted commercial property and infrastructure are ultimately likely to benefit from a resumption of the search for yield but the hit to space demand and hence rents from the virus will continue to weigh on near term returns.

- Australian home prices are being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives, income support measures and bank payment holidays but high unemployment, a stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see stronger gains in 2021.

- Cash and bank deposits are likely to provide very poor returns, given the ultra-low cash rate of just 0.1%.

- Although the $A is vulnerable to bouts of uncertainty about coronavirus and China tensions and RBA bond buying will keep it lower than otherwise, a rising trend is still likely to around $US0.80 over the next 12 months helped by rising commodity prices and a cyclical decline in the US dollar.

<h2>What to watch?</h2>

The main things to keep an eye on in 2021 are as follows:

- Coronavirus and vaccines – problems with vaccines or their deployment could result in ongoing waves of new coronavirus cases &amp; slower recovery than we are assuming.

- US politics – a Democrat victory in Georgia’s January 5 US senate elections would risk more of a leftward tilt under Biden, although conservative Democrat senators will limit this. Trump could also try to throw a spanner in the works.

- China tensions – we expect a shift to a diplomatic approach here but there is a risk of misjudgement on either side which could start to slow our longer-term economic growth rate.

- Inflation – we are assuming it remains weak but if it rebounds faster than expected it will mean faster increases in bond yields and downward pressure on asset valuations.

- The hit to immigration in Australia – it’s hard to see 700,000 less immigrants out to mid-2023 having no impact on inner city Sydney and Melbourne property prices.

Dr Shane Oliver 
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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Just as 2020 was dominated by the pandemic and this determined the relative performance of investment markets and stocks, 2021 is likely to be dominated by the recovery

Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see strongest property gains in 2021: Shane Oliver

A new chapter in Sydney’s urban renewal story begins today as NSW Premier Chris Minns officially turns the sod for Dawn, the fifth stage of Sekisui House Australia’s $5 billion <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> masterplanned community.

Developed in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties and built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-melrose-park-bundil-boulevard-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Dawn</a> will deliver 368 parkside residences, forming part of one of NSW’s largest privately owned urban renewal projects.&nbsp;

The milestone marks the start of the next phase in transforming Melrose Park into a new community delivering over 5,500 homes, a mixed-use town centre, 50,000 sqm of open green spaces and several future schools.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=352993]

Kazunori Ito, Group CEO and Managing Director at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a>, said the milestone symbolises the company’s ongoing commitment to job creation, housing supply and sustainable community building.

“This moment represents more than just the start of construction," Ito said.

"It is about building a new urban heart for Sydney’s geographic centre. Dawn and the wider Melrose Park masterplan will generate thousands of jobs, deliver quality homes for families and help more people realise the dream of home ownership.

“We are proud to be supporting the NSW government’s housing targets and expanded Home Guarantee Scheme, which came into effect on 1 October. The program is already opening doors for more first home buyers at Melrose Park, many of whom are using the scheme to purchase with a five per cent deposit and no Lenders’ Mortgage Insurance.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=334163]

Since its introduction, the enhanced federal government’s Home Guarantee Scheme has given first home buyers greater access to the property market. With value thresholds in New South Wales now lifted to $1.5 million, buyers can secure a new apartment in Melrose Park sooner, reducing the burden of saving a 20 per cent deposit and removing costly mortgage insurance premiums.&nbsp;

The Dawn precinct, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/group-gsa">Group GSA</a> embodies Sekisui House’s global “Love of Humanity” philosophy, integrating sustainability, technology and liveability into every design detail. Residents will enjoy abundant green space, energy efficient features and a direct connection to the future Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 and Melrose Park Town Centre set to open in 2026.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=354734]

As part of the NSW government’s long-term commitment to the local community, work recently commenced on the new Melrose Park High School, a state-of-the-art education facility designed to accommodate more than 1,000 students. The school will be within walking distance to Dawn and will become a cornerstone of the precinct’s family friendly environment.

Melrose Park’s smart community vision includes EV charging stations, environmental monitoring systems with Western Sydney University and NBN node to residence connectivity. With over $216 million in planning contributions committed to local and state infrastructure, this project supports NSW’s 30-minute city goal, ensuring residents can live, work and play within easy reach of key employment and lifestyle hubs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=334049]

Dawn’s contemporary residences all have secure basement parking and start at $649,000 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1.259 million for three-bedrooms.&nbsp;

The project will also overlook Central Park which spans nearly two hectares and features barbeque and picnic areas, children’s play zones and walking tracks ideal for active residents and pets.

Residents will enjoy exclusive rooftop community facilities including private rooftop gardens, beautifully landscaped podium parks and internal courtyard gardens.

Construction of Dawn, which is being led by regarded builder Decode, will be completed by Q1 2028, adding to Sekisui House’s pipeline of more than 9,000 homes and apartments under development across Australia.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145496]

Staff Writer

Premier Chris Minns turns sod at Dawn Melrose Park as construction commences

Southport is set for one of its tallest new apartment developments in recent years with the approval of Malua, a 32-level tower just one row back from Broadwater.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/malua-18-22-norman-street-southport-qld-4215">Norman St tower</a> will comprise 151 apartments within the Southport Priority Development Area. The three adjoining lots, totalling 1,215 sqm, are currently occupied by three two-storey buildings, one a house, and two duplexes.

The majority of the apartments will be two-bedders (126), with just five one-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedrooms. There will be three basement levels, three podium levels, and a rooftop communal space with a pool, gym, private dining areas and business hub facilities.

<img alt="Malua" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21ab3437-de39-432c-b991-f33227b606dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.41.37%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_dOcjcvmSMyn6utzzviBVCAgDp5ZCo_N" />

There had been prior approval for a 14-storey building, however those plans became financially unviable.

“The proposed development seeks to resolve financial viability issues of the existing development approval by providing a higher density development with a more favourable unit mix and streamlined design,” the planning report submitted to the Gold Coast City Council noted.

Plus Studio designed the tower which "aims to contribute positively to the evolving Southport skyline, with vertical relief elements, sculpted facades, and rooftop crowning features."

“When stepping into the lobby from Norman Street, pedestrians and residents pass through a sculpted podium of lush green foliage in an earthy entry experience,” Plus wrote in its design report, emphasising the landscape-led approach to the podium and ground plane.

<img alt="Malua" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="694202c2-be8f-4cde-be26-a494293058a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.42.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NOIFuolMkoE8vNerov63rnbFRk_TnYUy" />

There is renewed confidence in the development market in Southport. Buyers have jumped at the chance to buy at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/maris-southport-20-queen-street-southport-qld-4215">Maris</a>, the latest local Gold Coast development by MRCB. Over 75 per cent of the 192 apartments have been snapped up prior to launching to the market.&nbsp;

The last notable launch in the suburb was in late 2023 when <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eden-garden-residences-20-bauer-street-southport">Eden Garden Residences</a> hit the market. The 54 apartments, on the corner of Bauer Street and Chester Terrace, are under construction and due to complete in mid-2026.

Joel Robinson

First look: Southport tower Malua to rise 32 levels in latest Gold Coast approval

Woolworths Group’s development arm, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fabcot">Fabcot</a>, has unveiled its latest mixed-use development.

They are seeking to reshape a prominent site in Gladesville, on the northern edge of the town centre. They've filed a&nbsp;State Significant Development Application for the amalgamated 5,623 sqm block with street frontages to Victoria Road and Eltham Street that will see <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/363-victoria-road-gladesville-nsw-2111">two buildings with 171 apartments</a> sit above an activated retail ground plane.

The tallest tower, at 13 storeys, will face Victoria Road and home 115 dwellings. A smaller nine-sytorey tower, stepping down to Eltham Street, will have the remaining 56 apartments.

The towers will rise above a podium containing a full-line 3,800 sqm Woolworths supermarket and cafe, activating along the Westminster and Eltham Street frontages.

<img alt="Fabcot" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="da042a40-288e-41b8-becc-080f235a3717" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.13.26%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=n99ay71Clcy6WLP4Uajw2ph6BA61wboV" />

The residential offering will include 19 one-bedroom, 118 two-bedroom, and 34 three-bedroom apartments. Residents will have access to rooftop communal terraces on both buildings, as well as a podium-level garden, contributing a total of 1,411 sqm of communal open space.

According to the Urban Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/clarke-hopkins-clarke">ClarkeHopkinsClarke</a>, “The massing places height and density along Victoria Road, reinforcing its role as the commercial spine, while stepping down towards neighbouring areas to ensure appropriate scale transitions.”&nbsp;

The design draws inspiration from the local geology and waterways, with curving tower forms and a warm, tactile material palette referencing Hawkesbury sandstone and nearby riverine landscapes.

The proposal also includes basement parking across three to four levels, accommodating 392 car spaces - 190 for retail and 202 for residents.

<img alt="Fabcot" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f1a01073-9a13-4ba7-9c14-43c84a751e26" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.13.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KSImA_iSQiIgSRMswm7.5Sg.WRZ0fZjg" />

Fabcot is aiming to deliver a “landmark building with civic presence,” leveraging the prominent corner site to anchor the precinct’s urban renewal.

“The building’s corner location and carefully sculpted form establish it as a landmark for North Gladesville,” the Urban Design Report notes.

ClarkeHopkinsClarke has previously collaborated on other Woolworths mixed-use projects, and here again deploys stepped setbacks, articulation, and extensive landscaping to manage bulk and enhance street-level engagement. A colonnaded brick base provides texture and rhythm to the podium, while upper levels curve softly to maximise views and cross-ventilation.

The development sits within the North Gladesville Precinct, an area earmarked for transformation under Ryde’s local planning strategy. It is well-served by bus connections along Victoria Road and within proximity to community infrastructure, schools, and riverside parkland.

Gladesville is set for a full transformation with developer Third.i also planning a major mixed-use development in the area. They are seeking to redevelop the Gladesville Village Shopping Centre into an&nbsp;integrated precinct with more than 500 apartments, a new supermarket, and significant public domain upgrades.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-third-i-plots-500-unit-redevelopment-of-gladesville-village-shopping-centre">First look: Third.i plots 500-unit redevelopment of Gladesville Village Shopping Centre</a>

Fabcot reveals mixed-use plans for Gladesville town centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/omaya">Omaya</a> has brought to market a boutique collection of completed, two-storey terraces on Telopea Avenue in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/homebush-west-nsw-2140">Homebush West</a>, offering buyers the opportunity to move straight into brand-new homes in a connected inner-west location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/telopea-avenue-homebush-west-24-36-telopea-avenue-homebush-west-nsw-2140">Telopea Avenue</a> comprises four-bedroom terraces with internal basement parking, designed to balance functionality with contemporary interiors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6085]

Each residence is arranged across two levels, with layouts tailored to families seeking more space or downsizers wanting low-maintenance living without compromise. Skylights and large windows maximise natural light throughout the interiors, while private terraces and balconies extend living outdoors.

Inside, hybrid timber flooring flows through living and bedroom spaces, complemented by built-in wardrobes with polyurethane finishes and melamine shelving.&nbsp;

Kitchens feature Bianco Imperial Granite benchtops and splashbacks, paired with Smeg appliances including a five-burner gas cooktop, oven, rangehood, and integrated dishwasher.&nbsp;

Bathrooms continue the refined detailing with porcelain tiling, granite accents, gun metal tapware, and integrated LED lighting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6072]

Landscaped surrounds create a sense of greenery within the community, while individual home designs ensure each terrace retains its own character.

Positioned within a quiet residential pocket, the project sits only minutes from the activity centres of Strathfield, North Strathfield, Homebush, and Lidcombe, as well as the broader lifestyle and employment precinct of Sydney Olympic Park.

Residents also benefit from the project’s proximity to transport and amenity. Homebush and Flemington stations provide direct rail access to the Sydney CBD, with major road connections including Parramatta Road and the M4 close by.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6064]

Local shops, Sydney Markets, and Strathfield Plaza cater to daily needs, while the area is well-serviced by schools, childcare centres, and universities.&nbsp;

Nearby Sydney Olympic Park and Bicentennial Park add further lifestyle appeal, offering walking trails, sports facilities, and year-round cultural events.

The terraces are delivered by Omaya, a family-run Sydney developer and builder with more than 35 years of experience and over 1,000 dwellings in its pipeline.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150682]

Omaya delivers complete and move-in ready terraces on Telopea Avenue, Homebush West

Melbourne-based developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/las-group">LAS Group</a> has this month received planning approval for two adjoining sites, 101 Clarendon Street and 38 Clarke Street in Southbank, that will add around $700 million to the developer’s pipeline on completion.

The two sites were purchased from Crown in 2023 and occupy the same city block as the iconic Casino complex, acquired in an on-market transaction, consisting of multiple titles that were being used as warehouses and low-rise office space.

The resulting permits will see the delivery of two towers consisting of 52 and 25 levels, both to be designed by Fender Katsalidis.

LAS Group’s successful planning approvals are among only a select few new development sites in Southbank to receive a permit in the last three years, as appropriate sites become even more scarce in the popular city-side location.

The projects will enjoy immediate walking access to Crown Casino, South Wharf, the Aquarium, Southbank and the wider Yarra River walk precinct that features a plethora of restaurants, bars and other hospitality and entertainment offerings.

The Fender Katsalidis-designed towers will feature intricate brick masonry and arched windows at street level that will add character to the Southbank streetscape, with sleek towers rising above each podium.

The larger of the two towers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/101-clarendon-street-southbank-vic-3006">101 Clarendon Street</a>, will have 509 apartments across a 52-level building that wuill also include a resident&nbsp;lounge, private dining room, podcast room, golf simulator, co-working spaces, pet care facilities, and an outdoor terrace.

That is expected to complete in 2029.

<img alt="Clarendon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9d8595a7-d225-4532-86a9-d3c5ca7407d4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-05%20at%208.28.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=quwbfnhk5Vf6yR1Qj0GQtt0EjeIsKMci" /> 
The podium at 101 Clarendon Street. Image supplied

The smaller tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/36-42-clarke-street-southbank-vic-3006">38 Clarke Street</a> will be around half the size at 25 levels and home 188 apartments, a pool, gym, cold plunge, and sauna. That is expected to complete in 2028.

&nbsp;

LAS Group has a long history of developing key sites across Australia, including The Fawkner on St Kilda Road and Guild Apartments in Southbank, as well as holding significant interests in retail, mixed-use and storage facilities across Australia.

<img alt="38 Clarke" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d871b034-d2a4-490f-b9eb-b9d4b99a04c5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-05%20at%208.28.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=J3fWfemsLPQzXekl_h0QlsXoWFnRbfRF" /> 
38 Clarke Street, Southbank. Image supplied

LAS Group director and founder Les Smith said the planning approvals had come at a time when confidence was returning to the market and the need to deliver quality apartment stock in Melbourne’s inner suburbs was becoming critical to help ease the housing and affordability crisis.

“These planning approvals are the outcome of a collaborative process with multiple stakeholders and we are grateful for the involvement and support of Melbourne Water, the Department of Transport and Planning, Melbourne City Council and Property Council of Australia along the way," Smith said.

“We have a huge affinity for Melbourne believe the macro and micro economic factors that underpin long-term growth mean it is currently undervalued compared to other capital cities around Australia.

“Confidence is starting to return given the recent interest rate drops and the buoyancy in the economic climate, so we believe the time is right to bring these two new projects to market in the coming months."

LAS Group General Manager, Mia Smith said the design intent was to bring a sense of place to Southbank from the ground level and contribute positively to the thriving entertainment precinct, while delivering good quality, affordable stock to the market.

“These projects will deliver product that is affordable and accessible, while delivering a beautiful building with luxury appointments, in a wonderful location that’s next door to Crown Casino and the Southbank entertainment precinct, and on the doorstep to the CBD," Smith said.

“We are incredibly pleased with the designs that Fender Katsalidis have proposed and we are excited to make a positive impact to the urban design of this important pocket of Southbank with these exceptional design outcomes.”

Shane Oliver

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